Why hasn't BTC dropped under geopolitical conflicts? The answer provided by Binance's funding structure and CVD

Author: Murphy

Due to the close correlation between Coinbase's BTC balance and ETF net inflows/outflows, I will focus more on Binance's data as a closer observation of real demand (non-ETF) in the short term.

From Figure 1, we can see two distinct periods of balance increase during 10/21 - 11/22 in 2025 and 1/15 - 2/20 in 2026, which correspond to two significant declines in BTC. After November 22, 2025, the balance decreased by 34,145 BTC, while the BTC price stabilized, shifting from a rapid decline to a range-bound movement with weak rebounds.

Figure 1: BTC Balance on Binance

This mirrors the current trend: from February 20, 2026, to now, Binance's BTC balance has decreased by 25,135 BTC. This period coincides with military conflicts between the U.S. and Iran, during which the BTC price has remained relatively stable, with neither significant drops nor rises.

Do these BTC transfers out of Binance represent real demand? Personally, I believe "yes," or rather "most of them do."

We can see structural differences in the "net transfer volume by scale." During this period, the main transfers were not from super whales transferring over $10 million, but rather from groups transferring between $1 million and $10 million.

Figure 2: Net Transfer Volume on Binance (by scale)

We know that transfers from super whales often involve institutional behaviors such as market makers and custodians, while the $1 million to $10 million group tends to represent high-net-worth investors and individual whales accumulating positions.

At the same time, we can observe a very steep curve in Binance's BTC spot trading volume deviation (CVD). CVD measures the net difference between spot buy and sell volumes, particularly highlighting the volume difference when buyers or sellers actively initiate trades.

Figure 3: BTC Spot Trading Volume Deviation (Binance)

The algorithm I used here is the 30-day average compared to the 90-day median deviation. A larger time frame can smooth out the interference caused by daily fluctuations. Therefore, a steep curve indicates that active buying in the spot market has been significantly stronger during this period.

This also somewhat corroborates the above speculation that the current situation leans more towards real on-site demand, rather than market maker behavior. Additionally, the recent USDC/USDT exchange rate has fallen back below 1, indicating stronger demand using USDT as purchasing power.

This explains why, despite ongoing military conflicts between the U.S. and Iran and employment data intensifying market concerns about economic stagnation/recession, BTC's price has remained relatively stable overall.

Of course, these are just short-term data performances. If we shift our perspective to a higher dimension, we will find that at a larger scale, CVD is still in an overall downtrend, similar to the trend before May 2022.

Figure 4: BTC Spot Trading Volume Deviation (Binance)

After May 2022, the CVD curve began to diverge from the price, with lows increasingly higher, indicating that the trend of active buying is starting to recover, and demand is returning strongly. Of course, this will be a long transition process.

Combining this with the cautious attitude displayed by on-chain whale entities towards macro uncertainty observed a few days ago, my viewpoint is:

• Short-term outlook: The phase of demand absorption may keep BTC in a range-bound or weak rebound trend;

• Long-term observation: Overall, it is still in a downtrend;

• Mid-term outlook: The current demand recovery is still in its early stages, and the mid-term may need to undergo a longer structural repair process.