Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.42 trillion, with ++BTC++ accounting for 58.4%, or $1.41 trillion. The market cap of stablecoins is $316.9 billion, increasing by 0.47% over the past 7 days, with ++USDT++ making up 58.1%.
Among the top 200 projects on ++CoinMarketCap++, most have declined while a few have risen, including: ++BTC++ down 0.84% over the past 7 days, ETH up 1.8% over the past 7 days, SOL up 0.18% over the past 7 days, RIVER up 28.75% over the past 7 days, and DEXE up 46.04% over the past 7 days.
This week, the net inflow for the U.S. ++Bitcoin++ spot ETF was $91.8 million; the net outflow for the U.S. ++Ethereum++ spot ETF was $59.8 million.
Market Forecast (March 23 - March 29):
The RSI index is at 44.65 (neutral, lower than last week), the Fear and Greed Index is at 10 (extreme fear), and the Altcoin Season Index is at 51 (neutral, higher than last week).
BTC: $69,400-71,300 (range trading, consider adding long positions if it breaks $71,300)
ETH: $2,200-2,400 (pay attention to the risk of CME gap filling)
SOL: $85-92 (downside risk greater than upside)
Main Risks Facing the Market

1. Bull Trap Potential: Many institutions warn that the current rebound may be a "relief rally," cautioning against pullbacks from false breakouts.
2. Inflation Resurgence: The situation in the Middle East is driving up oil prices, which may reinforce expectations of "higher rates for longer."
3. Direction of the Bank of Japan: A signal for interest rate hikes may be released around April, which, if it resonates with the Fed's hawkish stance, could suppress the cryptocurrency market.

Understanding Now

Review of Major Events of the Week

• Market volatility leads to a double kill for bulls and bears.

This week, the market experienced rollercoaster-like fluctuations. On March 17, driven by a short squeeze, Bitcoin briefly broke through $75,000, and Ethereum also rose above $2,300, causing over 127,000 liquidations globally. However, the upward momentum did not last, and on March 18, the market quickly retraced, with Bitcoin falling below $73,000 and Ethereum losing the $2,200 mark. Market sentiment rapidly switched between "fear" and "extreme fear."

• U.S. SEC Releases Major Cryptocurrency Guidance

On March 17, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) released a key interpretive document that clearly categorizes crypto assets into five categories: digital commodities, digital collectibles, digital tools, stablecoins, and digital securities, emphasizing that federal securities laws only apply to "digital securities." On the same day, SEC Chair Gary Gensler proposed a "safe harbor" for crypto companies, aimed at providing "tailored financing pathways" for startups, which is interpreted as an important step towards clarifying U.S. crypto regulation.

• Federal Reserve Maintains Interest Rates, Crypto Community Reignites Risk Aversion

On March 19, the Federal Reserve's FOMC announced its interest rate decision, keeping rates unchanged in the range of 3.5%-3.75%. Following the announcement, BTC briefly fell below $70,000.

• Divergence in Fund Flows for Mainstream Crypto ETFs, XRP Performs Steadily

According to SoSoValue data, from March 18, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana's spot ETFs recorded a total net outflow of nearly $220 million. However, Ripple (XRP)'s spot ETF fund flow remained stable, with a net inflow/outflow of zero on that day, demonstrating strong resilience.

• Major Exchanges Make Large Adjustments to Trading Pairs

Major exchanges have been active this week. Coinbase suspended trading for over 20 perpetual contracts, including MET and REZ, on March 16. Binance delisted several perpetual contracts, including VFY, ALGO, and ATOM, from March 17 to 18, and made adjustments to the deposit and withdrawal networks for tokens like NIL, COS, and DEGO.

• Upbit Delists Flow and Loopring

Korean major exchange Upbit terminated trading support for Flow (FLOW) and Loopring (LRC) on March 16. After verification, Upbit pointed out that Loopring had issues with business authenticity and insufficient progress, which could lead to user losses.

• "AI Super Bowl" GTC Conference Held

The GTC 2026 conference, dubbed the "AI Super Bowl," was held from March 16 to 19 in San Jose, California. As the most anticipated annual event in the AI field, the latest technological achievements released often have a profound impact on the intersection of AI and cryptocurrency (such as DePIN, AI agents, etc.).

• Noble Launches EVM Mainnet Based on Commonware

Stablecoin infrastructure project Noble announced on March 18 the official launch of its EVM Layer 1 mainnet based on the Commonware architecture, separating from the original Cosmos SDK chain. The new chain supports sub-second transaction finality and centers around the native yield-bearing stablecoin USDN, expanding into more financial scenarios.

Macroeconomics

• On March 19, the Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75%, marking the second consecutive time it has held steady, in line with market expectations.
• On March 19, the Bank of England kept the benchmark interest rate at 3.75%, consistent with market expectations, marking the second consecutive time it has held steady.
• On March 19, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending March 14 was 205,000, the lowest since the week of January 10, below the expected 215,000 and the previous value of 213,000.
• On March 19, the Eurozone announced that as of March 19, the European Central Bank deposit facility rate was 2%, as expected.
• On March 19, according to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in April is 0%, and the probability of maintaining rates is 100%.

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points by June is 11.2%, while the probability of maintaining rates is 88.8%. The probability of maintaining rates unchanged by July is 77.4%.

ETF

Statistics show that from March 16 to March 20, the ++U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF Net Inflow++ was $91.8 million; as of March 20, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $25.913 billion, currently holding $10.911 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $55.129 billion. The total market cap of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $93.629 billion.
++U.S. Ethereum Spot ETF Net Outflow++ was $59.8 million.

Envisioning the Future

Industry Conferences

• The Digital Asset Summit 2026 will be held from March 24 to 26, 2026, in New York, USA.
• EthCC 9 will be held from March 30 to April 2, 2026, in Cannes, France. The Ethereum Community Conference (EthCC) is one of the largest and oldest annual Ethereum events in Europe, focusing on technology and community development.
• The Hong Kong Web3 Carnival 2026 will be held from April 20 to 23, 2026, in Hong Kong, China.

Project Progress

• Nillion's nilChain will stop operating on March 23; users still holding NIL tokens on Cosmos must migrate to Ethereum. After the shutdown, users will no longer be able to perform standard transfer operations.
• Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart stated that the U.S. SEC is expected to start processing Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin ETF application around March 23.
• The soonBase L3 network will officially shut down on March 26. The SOON mainnet and svmBNB will continue to operate unaffected by this change. Users must withdraw assets from soonBase L3 by March 26; any remaining assets on L3 will be transferred to contracts controlled by the team on Base for safekeeping.

Important Events

• On March 26 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending March 21 (in ten thousand).
• On March 27 at 22:00, the U.S. will announce the final value of the March University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index.

Token Unlocking

• Soon (SOON) will unlock 21.85 million tokens on March 23, valued at approximately $3.06 million, accounting for 5.06% of the circulating supply.
• Monad (MON) will unlock 170 million tokens on March 24, valued at approximately $3.93 million, accounting for 0.34% of the circulating supply.
• Humanity (H) will unlock 105 million tokens on March 25, valued at approximately $10.43 million, accounting for 4.19% of the circulating supply.
• Plasma (XPL) will unlock 88.89 million tokens on March 25, valued at approximately $9.47 million, accounting for 3.98% of the circulating supply.

About Us

++Hotcoin Research++ is the core research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, dedicated to transforming professional analysis into your practical tools. Through "Weekly Insights" and "In-Depth Reports," we analyze market trends for you; leveraging our exclusive column "Hotcoin Selection" (AI + expert dual screening), we help you identify potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Each week, our researchers also engage with you face-to-face through live broadcasts, interpreting hot topics and predicting trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize value opportunities in Web3.

Risk Warning

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors conduct investments based on a full understanding of these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of funds.
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