Analysis: 3.14% of Polymarket players contribute over 30% of the profits, while 67% of losers bear all the losses

According to Theblock, a new academic paper concluded that after analyzing all transactions on Polymarket from 2023 to 2025, only 3.14% of accounts were defined as "skilled winners," who were able to consistently and accurately predict short-term price trends and final outcomes. These skilled traders, along with market makers, contributed to over 30% of the platform's total revenue.

The paper also pointed out that only 12% of winners belonged to the high-level trader group, while about 60% of "lucky winners" turned into losers in another data sample test. Accounts classified as unlucky or technically poor accounted for 67% of the total, bearing all of the platform's total losses.

The paper was co-authored by Roberto Gómez-Cram, Yunhan Guo, Howard Kung from the London Business School, and Theis Ingerslev Jensen from Yale University, covering 1.72 million accounts and over 210,000 markets, with a total trading volume of approximately $13.76 billion.