Polymarket "Powell's resignation from the Federal Reserve Board" probability drops to 9%, down 25% in 24 hours

Polymarket shows that the probability of "Powell resigning from the Federal Reserve Board before May 30" has plummeted to 9%, a 25% drop in 24 hours; the probability of "Powell resigning from the Federal Reserve Board before December 31" has fallen to 66%, an 11% drop in 24 hours. The event contract rules state that if Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is no longer a member of the Federal Reserve Board at any time during the specified date (11:59 PM Eastern Time), it will be determined as "yes"; otherwise, it will be determined as "no."

If Powell no longer serves as Federal Reserve Chairman but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board, it does not meet the criteria for a "yes" determination. The determination is based on information released by the U.S. government, but consensus from credible reports can also serve as a basis. Powell stated at a press conference this morning that he will continue to serve as a Federal Reserve Board member "for a while" after stepping down as chairman and promised to "keep a low profile." U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen responded that "if Powell remains a Federal Reserve Board member, it would be unusual; for someone who has always emphasized norms, his unilateral decision runs counter to tradition."

Polymarket continues to monitor the prediction market and sees changes before pricing.