Notice: The U.S. non-farm payroll data for April will be released tonight at 20:30, with the probability of a rate cut in June currently reported at 5.2%

The U.S. non-farm payroll data for April will be released tonight at 20:30 (UTC+8), with an expected addition of only 62,000 jobs, far below the growth rate of previous years, but enough to keep the unemployment rate at a relatively low level of 4.3%. The annual wage inflation rate is expected to rise from 3.5% to 3.8%. In the past, when the monthly non-farm job additions in the U.S. were below 100,000, it was often seen as a signal of a weakening labor market and an economy on the brink of recession. However, the employment landscape has changed; Federal Reserve official Logan has publicly stated, "Currently, adding about 30,000 jobs per month is sufficient to achieve supply-demand balance in the labor market."

According to CME FedWatch data, before the non-farm data release tonight, the probability that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at all for the rest of the year is 72.6%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's next meeting (in June) is 5.2%.