CITIC Securities: Expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates once by 25 basis points in the second half of the year

According to Jinshi reports, Citic Securities' research report states that in April 2026, the number of new non-farm jobs in the United States exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate of 4.3% met expectations. The bank believes that the April data better reflects the current state of the U.S. job market compared to the previous two months, mainly due to a reduction in one-time factors and a higher corporate response rate. Regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, if the situation in Iran eases and falling oil prices lead to a cooling of inflation expectations, the baseline scenario for the second half of the year is a rate cut of 25 basis points once.