Bernstein reiterated the target price of $67 for Figure, optimistic about a 72% upside driven by tokenization

Bernstein reiterated its "Outperform" rating on Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR) and maintained a target price of $67, implying about a 72% upside from the current stock price of $38.97. Figure's Q1 2026 performance was strong: loan issuance reached $2.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 113%; adjusted revenue was $167 million, a year-on-year increase of 92%, exceeding market expectations by 6%; adjusted EBITDA was $82.7 million, with a profit margin of about 50%, slightly above market expectations. However, the GAAP diluted EPS was $0.18, about 9% below expectations, primarily impacted by $26 million in equity incentive expenses.

Bernstein's analysis suggests that this performance should reshape the market's perception of Figure, as it is not a traditional credit company, but rather a "tokenization-driven capital market platform," with core profits coming from network fees and operational leverage, and it maintains a pricing model based on a 25x EBITDA valuation for 2027. Additionally, the tokenization ecosystem continues to expand: the yield-bearing security token YLDS reached $598 million (up 80% quarter-on-quarter); the balance of stock lending products was $368 million (up 79%); and the small business loan segment contributed $6 million in revenue. Figure's current stock price is still not far from the 2025 IPO issue price of $36, but there remains a significant gap from the historical high of $78.