Bitget UEX Daily Report｜The Strait of Hormuz is closed, oil prices rebound significantly; US stocks are under pressure with technology stocks leading the decline; SpaceX announces pricing today

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Inflation data mixed, core indicators moderate but energy drives overall increase

• The U.S. May CPI rose 4.2% year-on-year and 0.5% month-on-month, in line with market expectations, marking the first return to above 4% in three years; core CPI rose 2.9% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% below expectations.
• Rising energy costs are the main reason, with potential inflationary pressures relatively controllable. Market impact: Overall data is neutral, not significantly changing expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path, but combined with geopolitical energy shocks, it may increase uncertainty in policy decisions, and investors need to pay attention to subsequent FOMC signals.

International Commodities

Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. military confirms strike actions, oil prices surge

• The Iranian armed forces announced the closure of the strait, with all vessels facing attack risks; the U.S. military conducted additional defensive strikes against Iranian targets in response to aggressive actions.
• Trump's related statements and Iran's denial of direct communication have complicated negotiations due to additional agreement conditions. Market impact: The key global oil transport route is threatened, temporarily pushing up oil prices and transmitting inflationary pressures, benefiting energy assets while also increasing overall market risk aversion.

Macroeconomic Policy

Trump's additional demands delay agreement with Iran, economists call for stabilizing the strait situation

• Additional conditions include diluting enriched uranium stockpiles and toll commitments, delaying the agreement.
• Inflation meets expectations, but energy factors need close monitoring; Trump needs to provide policy certainty for the Federal Reserve. Market impact: Geopolitical uncertainty combined with inflation data may strengthen market caution regarding easing expectations, favoring safe-haven and energy-related assets in the short term.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance (Real-time Update)

• Spot Gold: Approximately $4080/ounce, 24h +0.59%.
• Spot Silver: Approximately $64/ounce, 24h +1.24%.
• WTI Crude Oil: Approximately $92/barrel, 24h +2.2%.
• Brent Crude Oil: Approximately $95/barrel, 24h +1.68%.
• U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): Approximately 99.92 points, 24h -0.12%.

Driving Factors Analysis: Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil passage, directly amplifies global supply disruption risks, driving a strong rebound in oil prices. U.S. military actions and the Trump-Iran communication controversy further exacerbate geopolitical tensions. Although the U.S. May CPI data met expectations, rising energy prices remain the main driver pushing overall inflation to a three-year high, while moderate core indicators limit extreme reactions. The dollar index remains relatively stable, reflecting the market's search for balance amid risk events. Institutional consensus suggests that short-term energy volatility will transmit to inflation expectations; if the strait issue persists, it may force the Federal Reserve to maintain a cautious stance; safe-haven assets like gold may face short-term pressure but have medium to long-term support, with significant linkage effects between oil prices and energy assets, and market volatility is expected to remain high.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Approximately $62130, +0.42%.
• ETH: Approximately $1640, -0.28%.
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Approximately $2.2 trillion, 24h -2.4%.
• Market Liquidation Situation: 24h total liquidation $409 million, long position liquidation $240 million.
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current BTC price approximately $61,935, with a large number of long liquidation chips concentrated in the $60,000-$60,600 range; if the price dips again, it may trigger a chain reaction of long stop-losses and test the key support level of $60,000. Above, there is over $400 million in cumulative short liquidation pressure in the $62,800-$64,000 area; if BTC breaks $62,500 and continues to strengthen, it may trigger short covering (Short Squeeze), rapidly pushing the price towards $64,000.

• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of $77.4 million yesterday.

Driving Factors Analysis: Geopolitical conflicts push up energy prices and inflation expectations, creating pressure on risk assets as the cryptocurrency market adjusts with U.S. stocks. The slight outflow of ETF funds reflects investor caution, with leveraged liquidations exacerbating price volatility. BTC shows some resilience relative to ETH, favored as a store of value amid uncertainty. Technically, the price range is fluctuating, with institutional views suggesting that short-term macro and geopolitical factors dominate, while mid-term focus is on Federal Reserve policy and capital flows, with an overall cautious trend but no systemic risk signals.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Closed at 49918.78 points (down 1.87%), continuing to adjust.
• S&P 500: Closed at 7266.99 points (down 1.62%), with significant divergence between tech and energy.
• Nasdaq: Closed at 25169.50 points (down 1.98%), with significant drag from the tech sector.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVDA: $200.42, down 3.73%.
• AAPL: $291.58, up 0.35%.
• MSFT: $397.36, down 1.46%.
• GOOGL: $356.85, down 2.16%.
• AMZN: $239.03, down 2.11%.
• META: $575.94, down 1.48%.
• TSLA: $384.66, down 3.03%.

Performance Summary and Driving Analysis: Tech giants overall adjusted with the market, with significant pressure on the semiconductor sector. AI-related stocks are weak due to valuation and sector rotation impacts, while consumer tech like Apple remains relatively resilient. Geopolitical events and inflation data form a common backdrop, with some funds shifting from overvalued tech to energy, highlighting stock differentiation: some benefit from the long-term AI narrative, while others face macro pressures or company-specific factors.

Overview of Cryptocurrency Stock Derivatives Market

Core Data

• 24H Total Transaction Volume: $29.87 billion (+32.21%)
• Total Open Interest (OI): $7.54 billion (-3.05%)
• 24H Total Liquidation: $80.99 million
• Transaction Volume Proportion: 15.22%
• Open Interest Proportion: 7.40%
• Liquidation Proportion: 19.79%

Sector Open Interest Ranking

1. Technology Sector: $1.12 billion
2. Financial Sector: $145 million
3. Consumer Sector: $69.64 million
4. Biotechnology Sector: $18.81 million
5. Industrial Sector: $16.91 million

Capital Flow Observation

Market transaction volume surged by 32%, but total open interest decreased by 3%, indicating a significant increase in trading activity while some funds chose to close positions, enhancing short-term speculative characteristics.

The technology sector continues to dominate, but the liquidation proportion is close to 20%, reflecting accelerated turnover of leveraged funds and increased market volatility.

# 3. Heatmap Capital Distribution (by Open Interest)

Commodities

• Gold (GOLD): $3.33 billion (largest market open interest)
• Silver (SILVER): $675 million
• WTI Crude Oil: $629 million
• Brent Crude Oil (BRENT): $433 million

Tech Stocks

• NVIDIA (NVDA): $238 million
• Marvell Technology (MRVL): $172 million
• Google (GOOGL): $98.6 million
• Circle (CRCL): $94.2 million
• Tesla (TSLA): $83.8 million
• MicroStrategy (MSTR): $65.1 million
• Intel (INTC): Active positions
• SanDisk (SNDK): Active positions

Market Capital Flow Observation

Gold open interest further rose to $3.33 billion, continuing to hold the top position in the market, indicating strong demand for capital preservation amid inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainties.

Funds within the technology sector remain concentrated in core AI industry chain targets, with NVIDIA and Marvell Technology maintaining high open interest; meanwhile, cryptocurrency concept stocks MicroStrategy and Circle maintain high attention, reflecting that some funds are still positioning in digital asset-related themes. WTI and Brent crude oil open interest has risen in tandem, indicating increased trading enthusiasm for energy price fluctuations.

Sector Movement Observation

Energy/Shale Oil Sector rose about 1.5-2.5% (outperforming the market)

• Representative stocks: Devon Energy (DVN) rose nearly 5.7-6.7%, Apache Corporation (APA) rose nearly 4%.
• Driving factors: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz directly pushed up oil prices, raising market concerns about supply disruptions, benefiting energy producers. WTI crude oil rose over 2%, combined with positive company-level production guidance and merger integration, further supporting sector performance. Despite overall market pressure, energy stocks exhibit strong defensive properties, likely continuing to be driven by geopolitical risk premiums in the short term, but caution is needed regarding potential pullback pressures from conflict de-escalation.

Semiconductor Sector fell about 3-5% (dragging down tech indices)

• Representative stocks: Broadcom (AVGO) fell over 5%, Qualcomm (QCOM) fell nearly 7%.
• Driving factors: Amid overall market adjustments, investors took profits and valuation pressures emerged; although AI chip demand remains strong in the long term, short-term macro uncertainties and sector rotation led to capital outflows. As a high-beta sector, semiconductors performed poorly under dual concerns of geopolitics and inflation, with institutions focusing on the realization of AI capital expenditures, but short-term volatility is expected to remain high.

# 4. In-depth Analysis of U.S. Stocks

1. Oracle (ORCL) - Significant Drop Post Earnings

Event Overview: Oracle's capital expenditures for the fourth fiscal quarter reached $15.9 billion, totaling $55.7 billion for the year, significantly higher than the previous guidance of $50 billion. Adjusted revenue of $19.18 billion met or slightly exceeded expectations, but cloud revenue (IaaS + SaaS) of $9.91 billion fell short of the target (expected $10 billion). The company confirmed a revenue guidance of $90 billion for fiscal year 2027 and raised adjusted EPS to $8.05, while also involving refinancing-related news. Cloud infrastructure (IaaS) revenue grew strongly to $5.79 billion, indicating strong AI-driven demand, but high capital expenditures raised market concerns about profit margins and cash flow, leading to a significant drop in after-hours stock prices.

Market Interpretation: Investors are particularly focused on the potential squeeze on future profit margins due to high capital expenditures, although cloud business growth is strong and remaining performance obligations surged to $638 billion, demonstrating robust long-term demand for AI infrastructure. Refinancing news further exacerbated valuation concerns, with the market digesting cost pressures in the short term.

Investment Insight: The long-term growth potential of cloud infrastructure and AI is prominent; attention should be paid to execution and profit margin improvement signals, with short-term valuation corrections potentially providing opportunities for phased positioning.

2. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) - Announced Large-Scale Financing

Event Overview: The company plans to conduct $7 billion in equity and equity-related financing (including $5 billion in underwritten issuance and $2 billion in ATM issuance) aimed at procuring components to meet approximately $39 billion in AI server orders (from over 20 customers). The stock price had already significantly corrected prior to this financing, which supports AI business expansion but also raises concerns about equity dilution, further pressuring the stock price.

Market Interpretation: Despite a strong order backlog reflecting booming AI server demand, large-scale equity financing during a high-growth phase raises concerns about dilution and valuation pressure. Institutions believe this move helps seize market opportunities, but execution efficiency and order conversion rates will be key observation points.

Investment Insight: AI server demand remains strong; focus on the efficiency of financing fund usage and delivery capabilities is crucial, with a long-term positive outlook but caution regarding short-term dilution effects.

3. Amazon (AMZN) - Secured Large Loan Facility

Event Overview: Amazon signed a $17.5 billion loan agreement led by Citigroup (delayed draw term loan), with interest rates based on SOFR plus a spread (0.625-0.875%), for general corporate purposes, with the facility available until the end of September this year. This move enhances the company's liquidity, supporting business expansion and capital expenditures.

Market Interpretation: This demonstrates Amazon's strong financing capability in the current interest rate environment, providing flexible funding support for AI, cloud services, and retail expansion. The market views this move as strengthening financial resilience, but attention should be paid to the specific allocation of funds and return efficiency.

Investment Insight: Ample liquidity is beneficial for long-term growth strategies; investors should focus on the transparency of fund usage and business synergy effects.

# 5. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

1. Japanese gaming company Enish liquidated all of its 8.063 Bitcoins at a loss of approximately $160,000 and shifted to a Solana ecosystem staking strategy, targeting an annualized return of 6% to 8%. The company stated that the DAT 1.0 strategy, which relied on rising cryptocurrency prices, has become increasingly unsustainable amid market volatility, while the DAT 2.0 strategy, which generates continuous income through staking and validator operations, has become the new direction.

2. Tom Lee: The supply of ETH is contracting, and BitMine may not need to hold more than 5% of the supply.

3. According to The Block, SpaceX's IPO on Thursday could have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market, with some investors potentially selling crypto assets to purchase SpaceX stock. GSR's global head of OTC trading, Spencer Hallarn, stated that the IPO needs to raise $75 billion, and the funds must come from somewhere. K33's research director, Vetle Lunde, pointed out that investor expectations for popular IPOs like SpaceX may be suppressing Bitcoin prices. Bitwise advisor Jeff Park stated that Bitcoin is being used to fund the upcoming hot capital trades in the market.

Meanwhile, cryptocurrency trading activity related to SpaceX has been quite active. Talos data shows that the perpetual contract trading price for SpaceX is approximately $155, higher than the IPO pricing of $135, with open contracts exceeding $385 million and cumulative trading volume reaching $2.7 billion. Bitget wallet COO Alvin Kan stated that self-custody wallets are becoming an important channel for capital market access, and Bitget's tokenized SpaceX IPO subscription has increased from $3 million to $13 million, achieving oversubscription.

4. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated that based on meetings with over 40 financial advisors this week, advisors' interest in stablecoins and tokenization has surpassed that in Bitcoin. Despite the ongoing bear market, financial advisors remain interested in crypto, but their focus is increasingly shifting away from Bitcoin. The reasons are twofold: first, the awareness of fiat currency depreciation trading has faded from investors' minds; second, stablecoins and tokenization have become core topics of industry discussion, frequently discussed by figures such as the SEC chairman, Goldman Sachs CEO, and BlackRock CEO.

5. CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno stated that the Bitcoin bottom may be around $53,600, which is the current realized price, historically marking the bottom of bear markets multiple times. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $62,150, about 9% above that level. However, demand conditions remain weak. CryptoQuant estimates that total demand decreased by 650,000 BTC last week, the largest single-week decline since January 2022. The 30-day ETF demand growth has dropped to -74,000 BTC, the weakest level since the ETF launch. Meanwhile, the 30-day realized losses amount to 187,000 BTC, far below the 400,000 BTC when it first fell below $60,000 in February and 1.2 million BTC during the FTX collapse in November 2022, indicating that a capitulation-style sell-off has not yet been reached.

6. According to The Information, OpenAI founder Altman expects OpenAI to go public within the next year.

# 6. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

June 11 (Thursday)

1. SpaceX IPO final pricing: One of the largest IPOs in history ($135/share, expected to raise about $75 billion, market cap nearly $1.77 trillion), strong catalyst for space/tech stocks. ★★★★★ (also large investor activities)
2. U.S. May PPI data release: Key indicator of inflationary pressures (expected to rise significantly).
3. U.S. stock earnings: Adobe (ADBE) and others to report after hours (focus on AI software demand).
4. U.S.-Canada-Mexico World Cup opening (June 11 - July 19): U.S. stocks related to the sports industry may receive attention.

June 12 (Friday)

1. SpaceX officially listed on Nasdaq (ticker SPCX): Historic IPO event, first trading day, boosting market sentiment. ★★★★★
2. U.S. economic data: Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for June, preliminary one-year inflation expectations for June.

Core Highlights for U.S. Stocks This Week:
"Super Event Week": SpaceX IPO + Apple WWDC + Major Inflation Data (CPI/PPI) + Oracle/Adobe Earnings, will dominate U.S. tech and macro sentiment. It is recommended to focus on AI, tech infrastructure, and space concept sectors.

Institutional Views:

Several investment bank analysts pointed out that the escalation of the Iran-U.S. conflict leading to soaring oil prices and the risk of the Strait of Hormuz blockade has become a core source of uncertainty in the current market, potentially pushing up inflation and testing the Federal Reserve's patience. Institutions like BlackRock maintain a relatively optimistic view on U.S. stocks, especially in the tech and AI sectors, but emphasize the potential drag of energy shocks on Europe and global growth. Gold faces short-term pullback pressure but is bullish in the long term; cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin show differentiated performance amid macro volatility, with ETF outflows reflecting cautious sentiment. Overall, institutions recommend focusing on energy beneficiary stocks and defensive allocations while being wary of the impact of geopolitical events on risk appetite, expecting increased short-term volatility but no signs of systemic collapse, with the mid-term dependent on conflict de-escalation and economic data.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search, with human verification for publication, and is not intended as any investment advice. Data in the text may inevitably contain deviations; please refer to real-time market data.