Bloomberg analyst: Bitcoin may be shifting from "leading risk assets" to "leading bearish signals."

According to Mike McGlone, Chief Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg, Bitcoin has significantly led risk assets in previous upward cycles, and this leading relationship may be reversing in the current phase. In his latest comments, he stated that Bitcoin has previously "driven risk assets upward," but now "may also drive them downward," and believes that based on its comparison chart with the S&P 500 scaled up by 10 times, the overall β assets may enter a downward year in 2026.

He emphasized that since 2009, the annual total return of the S&P 500 has only declined in 2018 and 2022, both of which coincided with Bitcoin's downward cycles and corresponded to the U.S. midterm election cycles. He believes the difference in the current market is that structural pressures are accumulating: inflation has re-emerged as a core political issue, while stock market volatility has remained low for an extended period, but risk indicators for commodities like gold and oil have continued to rise. This combination of "low volatility stocks + high-risk commodities" is historically rare.

Additionally, McGlone stated that since 2026, both Bitcoin and gold have shown signs of "mean reversion," which may indicate that the risk asset cycle is entering a repricing phase. He pointed out that Bitcoin and gold have retraced about 50% from their 2025 peak (around $126,000), while the total return index for U.S. Treasuries may be forming a phase bottom from a low area not seen since 1983.

Currently, the market still lacks key confirmation signals: specifically, the S&P 500 to GDP ratio has fallen from near its highest level since 1928. If this indicator begins to turn, it may signify that a broader risk asset cycle is entering a structural adjustment.