Bitget UEX Daily Report｜U.S. media reports that the U.S. and Iran have stopped mutual attacks; South Korean chip giant announces trillion-won investment plan; AI application software sector rises across the board

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Gavekal: Trump's Pressure on the Federal Reserve May Lower the Probability of an Out-of-Control Inflation Scenario

• The institution points out that Kevin Warsh's appointment as Federal Reserve Chairman and the reappointment of 11 regional Fed presidents have significantly reduced market concerns about the independence of monetary policy; the Federal Reserve meeting earlier this month emphasized its commitment to price stability, which surprised market participants who previously expected a more dovish stance.
• The report emphasizes that in 2025, the market was concerned that Trump's nomination of a political puppet would force interest rate cuts and push up inflation, but developments over the past seven months have significantly reduced the probability of that scenario.
• Market Impact: This view supports the stability of the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, reducing the extreme policy risk premium and providing neutral to slightly positive support for risk assets.

International Commodities

U.S. and Iran Agree to Stop Mutual Attacks; This Week's Meeting in Doha, Qatar Focuses on the Strait of Hormuz

• According to AXIOS, U.S. senior officials confirmed that the U.S. and Iran have agreed to stop all military actions and plan to meet in Doha, the capital of Qatar, on Tuesday to resolve related disputes; previously, Trump threatened on June 27 that if Iran violated the ceasefire again, the U.S. might use military means to "complete the mission," and the Islamic Republic of Iran would cease to exist.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian stated that Iran will fully supervise and manage the Strait of Hormuz within the next 30 days; the originally scheduled technical negotiations in Switzerland have stalled due to recent conflicts, and Iranian officials were absent from the negotiations on the 28th.
• Market Impact: The clear signal of easing geopolitical tensions is beneficial for risk assets, oil prices are under downward pressure, and demand for safe-haven assets like gold is experiencing short-term volatility, but overall risk appetite is recovering.

Stock Market

South Korea to Announce Samsung and SK's "Three Major Projects" Investment Plans Today, Scale May Exceed $650 Billion

• President Lee Jae-myung will deliver a speech at the Blue House this afternoon, and four departments, including the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, will simultaneously announce policies and investment announcements; Samsung Electronics and SK are expected to release a corporate investment plan exceeding 1,000 trillion won (approximately $650 billion) over the next 10 years, which may include the development of a chip industry cluster in the southwestern region of North Chungcheong.
• This move has been described by Lee Jae-myung as a "historic achievement," aimed at consolidating South Korea's key position in the global AI chip supply chain.
• Market Impact: Global semiconductor and AI infrastructure-related supply chain assets are expected to receive long-term catalysts, benefiting the U.S. tech sector and related ETF fund flows.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance (Real-time Update)

• Spot Gold: Approximately $4,056/ounce, -0.76%
• Spot Silver: Approximately $58.9/ounce, -1.38%
• WTI Crude Oil: Approximately $70.1/barrel, +1.4%
• Brent Crude Oil: Approximately $73.4/barrel, +1.2%
• Dollar Index (DXY): Approximately 101.34 points, -0.03%

Driving Factors Analysis: The agreement between the U.S. and Iran to stop mutual attacks and transition to meetings in Qatar improves the outlook for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, directly alleviating concerns about supply tightness in the oil market, putting pressure on both WTI and Brent. Gold and silver have seen slight increases under the dual influence of recovering risk appetite and the affirmation of the Federal Reserve's policy independence, while the dollar index has slightly retreated. Institutions believe that while easing geopolitical tensions is beneficial for risk assets, inflation and the Federal Reserve's stance still provide support for precious metals. In the short term, oil prices are likely to decline, while precious metals maintain a strong range-bound pattern. The inter-asset linkage logic is clear: falling oil prices → reduced inflation pressure → slight increase in interest rate cut expectations → pressure on the dollar → support for gold.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Approximately $59,575, -1%
• ETH: Approximately $1,570, -0.31%
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Approximately $2.13 trillion, -1.2%
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation in 24 hours is approximately $184 million, with long positions liquidated at approximately $148 million.
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current BTC price is approximately $59,639, with a large concentration of short liquidation points in the range of $60,200--$61,000. If it breaks through the $60,000 threshold, it may trigger concentrated stop-losses for shorts, pushing the price further up. The main concentration of long liquidations is between $58,000--$59,000, with the cumulative scale significantly smaller than the pressure from short liquidations above, indicating that the overall liquidation map still shows more concentrated liquidity above, with a short-term bias towards attracting liquidity from above.

• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: At last Friday's close, BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of approximately $445 million in a single day.

Driving Factors Analysis: Easing geopolitical tensions boost overall risk appetite, but the affirmation of the Federal Reserve's independence and continuous net outflow pressure from ETFs since June have prevented BTC from effectively rebounding. Leverage liquidation data has significantly reduced compared to previous periods, indicating that high-leverage positions have been somewhat cleaned out, and the market has entered a relatively low-volatility recovery phase. Technically, there is intense competition around the $59,300 mark, with the dense area of short positions above potentially becoming short-term resistance. If the support at $58,000 is lost, it may trigger a new round of chain liquidations. The overall trend still needs to wait for further confirmation of direction from ETF flows and macro data.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: 51,876.11 points (-0.09%)
• S&P 500: 7,354.02 points (-0.05%)
• Nasdaq: 25,297.62 points (-0.24%)

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVDA: $192.53, -1.64%
• AAPL: $283.78, +3.14%
• MSFT: $372.97, +5.71%
• GOOGL: $337.39, -1.84%
• AMZN: $232.69, +2.50%
• META: $550.25, +1.36%
• TSLA: $379.71, +1.22%
• MU: $1,132.33, -6.69%
• SPCX: $153.23, +0.15%

Performance Summary and Driving Analysis: The tech sector showed significant differentiation on Friday, driven by more than just a single macro factor. Weight stocks like MSFT, AAPL, and AMZN recorded significant gains, mainly due to sustained strong demand for AI cloud services and specific positive boosts for some companies; semiconductor stocks like NVDA, MU (-7%), and AMD saw pullbacks due to profit-taking and concerns about the supply cycle. While easing geopolitical tensions are beneficial for overall risk appetite, internal competition and valuation pressures within the chip sector still dominate individual stock movements, avoiding a "one-size-fits-all" attribution to macro factors. The differentiation pattern is expected to continue in the short term, with leaders in AI applications and infrastructure showing relative resilience.

Overview of Cryptocurrency Stock Derivatives

• 24H Total Trading Volume: $3.441 billion (+92.31%)
• Total Open Interest (OI): $5.523 billion (+3.68%)
• 24H Total Liquidation: $5.6186 million
• Trading Volume Proportion: 3.23%
• Open Interest Proportion: 5.44%
• Liquidation Proportion: 3.05%

Open Interest Heatmap

• SPCX Open Interest: $710 million.
• MU Open Interest: $556 million.
• SKHX Open Interest: $530 million.
• SNDK Open Interest: $283 million.
• NVDA Open Interest: $242 million.
• INTC Open Interest: $150 million.
• MRVL Open Interest: $129 million.
• GOOGL Open Interest: $108 million.
• MSFT Open Interest: $105 million.
• CRCL Open Interest: $101 million.

Sector Movement Observation

Semiconductor Sector Drops Over 5%

• Representative Stocks: MU -7%, AMD -2%, NVDA -2%
• Driving Factors: Profit-taking pressure concentrated on Friday, combined with market concerns about oversupply and intensified competition in AI chips, led to a simultaneous sharp decline in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.

AI Application Software Sector Rises Together (Some Stocks Up Over 8-10%)

• Representative Stocks: NOW, SNOW up nearly 10%, WDAY +9%, DDOG +8%
• Driving Factors: Continued advancement of enterprise-level AI adoption, strong demand for cloud services and data analysis, with funds replenishing high-growth sectors after a pullback.

Cryptocurrency Concept Stocks Mostly Rise

• Representative Stocks: HOOD +6%, COIN, HUT +4%
• Driving Factors: Easing geopolitical tensions boost risk appetite, combined with Cathie Wood's ARK heavily buying COIN and other targets, driving related concept stocks to rebound.

# 3. In-Depth Analysis of U.S. Stocks

1. Microsoft - AI Cloud Service Demand Continues to Drive Significant Gains on Friday

Event Overview: MSFT recorded an approximate 5.71% increase on Friday, far exceeding the broader market, mainly driven by sustained strong demand for AI-related cloud services and enterprise-level solutions. The market interprets this as an acceleration in the AI capital expenditure cycle, with Azure's growth prospects further confirmed. Market Interpretation: Institutions generally believe that MSFT's dual layout in AI infrastructure and applications gives it strong defensive and offensive capabilities in the current environment, with strong willingness for fund replenishment after recent pullbacks. Investment Insight: Short-term focus on updates related to Azure AI data, while still a core technology allocation in the medium term.

2. Micron (MU) - Semiconductor Cycle Volatility Triggers Significant Pullback

Event Overview: MU dropped nearly 7% on Friday, dragging down the overall performance of the semiconductor sector. The market attributes this to profit-taking after previous large gains and stage concerns about the matching of AI chip supply rhythms with downstream demand. Market Interpretation: Institutional views are divided, with some considering this a healthy pullback, as HBM and storage demand still have medium to long-term support; others warn of short-term inventory and pricing pressures. Investment Insight: Suitable for high-risk tolerance investors to gradually position near support levels, with strict stop-loss settings.

3. Coinbase (COIN) - ARK Invest's Heavy Buying Boosts Market Confidence

Event Overview: Cathie Wood's ARK Invest spent approximately $10.19 million buying COIN stock on June 26, while also purchasing SpaceX, Circle, and other targets during the same period. Market Interpretation: This move is seen as a confidence expression from a well-known growth investor in cryptocurrency infrastructure and compliance platforms, carrying certain signal significance against the backdrop of ETF outflows. Investment Insight: Can be observed as a sentiment indicator in the short term, while long-term tracking of regulatory and adoption progress is still necessary.

# 4. Views & Market Dynamics

1. U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson stated that a housing bill including a temporary ban on CBDCs (until 2030) will be sent to President Trump for signing into law on Monday. Previously, on June 24, Trump refused to sign a bill containing a ban on U.S. CBDCs, pushing for the advancement of the election bill.

2. Arthur Hayes posted on the X platform that he remains optimistic about the Hyperliquid ecosystem but needs to seek more asymmetric opportunities, stating that it is time for an options DEX to truly challenge Deribit, and Hypercall (SYN) is such a challenger, hoping it can achieve something. Previously, it was reported that Arthur Hayes bought 6.16 million SYN from FlowDesk, amounting to approximately $2.2 million.

3. A senior U.S. official stated that the U.S. and Iran have agreed to stop mutual attacks, and both sides plan to meet in Doha, the capital of Qatar, on Tuesday to resolve disputes related to the Strait of Hormuz. Previously, just 11 days after the ceasefire memorandum was signed, both sides launched attacks again, while Trump threatened to restart the war and "complete the mission," putting the situation in jeopardy.

4. Bitcoin advocate Samson Mow stated on social media that he believes the bottom of this Bitcoin cycle has formed and pointed out that the traditional "four-year halving cycle" is being broken, with market rhythms clearly advancing. He mentioned that Bitcoin set a historical high 37 days before the halving in April 2024, indicating that cyclical patterns are accelerating in change. Even acknowledging that cyclical models have reference significance, their effectiveness should be reassessed. Moreover, with the continuous inflow of institutional funds brought by spot ETFs, the Bitcoin market structure has changed, and traditional methods of determining tops and bottoms based on historical halving cycles are becoming distorted. Therefore, the current price range exhibits characteristics of a cyclical bottom.

However, market views remain clearly divided. Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, believes that the Bitcoin bottom is more likely to appear around the $55,000 area, with a time window possibly between August and October; BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes expects Bitcoin to dip to around $40,000 in the coming months; CoinDesk analyst James Van Straten points out that from long-term indicators like the 200-week moving average, Bitcoin may still need to drop about 15% further to complete its final bottoming process. The current range of $50,000 to $54,000 may become a key battleground for bulls and bears, and overall, the market has not formed a consensus on whether a bottom has been reached.

5. Michael Anderson, co-founder of Framework Ventures, stated that the core opportunities in the next stage of the cryptocurrency industry may no longer be limited to cryptocurrency assets themselves but may become financing infrastructure for capital-intensive industries such as artificial intelligence, robotics, and energy. Tokenization and stablecoins are evolving from crypto-native applications into financial infrastructures serving the real economy, providing more efficient financing channels for assets like GPU computing power and energy projects. Compared to the 2020-2021 cycle centered on DeFi and cryptocurrency speculation, the industry is now shifting towards "real-world financing and infrastructure construction," with blockchain upgrading from a transactional application layer to a cross-industry capital network. He emphasized that the current stage may mark a structural shift in the cryptocurrency industry from "speculation-driven" to "infrastructure-driven."

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Important Event Forecast

• Announcement of South Korea's Chip Investment Plan: This afternoon - Focus on the specific investment scale and regional layout details of Samsung and SK.

Institutional Views:

In light of the easing of U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions within the past 24 hours, the significant investment plan in South Korea, and the affirmation of the Federal Reserve's independence by institutions, most investment banks and research institutions believe that the short-term environment for risk assets is marginally improving. The cooling of geopolitical tensions directly benefits the decline in oil prices and the recovery of stock market risk appetite, while South Korea's trillion-dollar chip investment provides long-term catalysts for the global semiconductor and AI supply chain. The expectation of stability in the Federal Reserve's policy independence reduces the tail risk of extreme inflation or policy loss of control, supporting the dollar and U.S. Treasuries. However, the cryptocurrency market still faces pressure from continuous net outflows from ETFs and confidence recovery after leverage cleaning, with BTC likely maintaining a range-bound pattern in the short term. Overall, institutions remain optimistic about the medium to long-term prospects of U.S. tech giants and the semiconductor supply chain, maintain a neutral to slightly bullish stance on precious metals, and recommend cautious allocation for cryptocurrency assets while paying attention to the key support level of $59,000. Short-term trading strategies should follow marginal changes in geopolitics and macro data, controlling positions and leverage.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search, with human verification for publication, and does not constitute any investment advice. The data in the text inevitably contains deviations; please refer to real-time market data.