BIS: The burst of the AI bubble and opaque financing pose core risks to the global financial system

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) warned in its latest annual report that the bursting of the AI bubble, a rebound in inflation, and sovereign debt pressures are the three core risks currently threatening global economic prosperity. The report pointed out that if the returns on investment in the AI sector fall short of expectations, it could lead to the current capital expenditure boom evolving into a long-term investment contraction, triggering significant macroeconomic turbulence.

The BIS specifically cautioned about the complex "circular financing" model within the AI industry chain, such as cross-shareholding and computing power binding procurement agreements between chip manufacturers and AI laboratories or cloud service providers. The institution emphasized that such transactions often lack transparency and pose the risk of the same asset being mortgaged multiple times. In addition, energy shocks caused by geopolitical conflicts could trigger a secondary rebound in inflation, compounded by high-leverage arbitrage trading by hedge funds in the government bond market, which would further exacerbate the fragility of the global financial system.