Daily Observation of Cryptocurrency Concept Stocks: CLARITY Act's July 4 Target Missed, Galaxy Digital's "50-50" Assessment - Where is the Next Legislative Window?

The Background of the July 4th Target Falling Short

The CLARITY Act faced a dual negotiation failure at the last moment: first, the ethical clause—Senator Gillibrand (New York, Democrat) demanded the inclusion of a provision prohibiting government officials (including the Trump family) from benefiting from personal crypto businesses, which the White House clearly rejected any terms that would list the president as a restricted subject, leading to a structural deadlock in negotiations; second, Section 604 (the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act, as an attachment to the CLARITY Act)—the White House Crypto Council urgently convened representatives from the National Sheriffs' Association, the Fraternal Order of Police, and the National District Attorneys Association to raise specific objections regarding law enforcement issues, but no agreement was reached in the meeting. The simultaneous outbreak of these two disagreements shifted Senator Bill Hagerty's "baseline scenario" to: after Congress reconvenes on July 13, first resolve the remaining clauses, and then arrange a full vote in late July. Stifel's Chief Washington Policy Analyst Brian Gardner warned: "If the bill does not pass before Congress adjourns in August, its prospects will substantially worsen."

Galaxy Research's "50-50" Assessment: Three Risk Scenarios

Galaxy Digital's research department estimates the probability of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 to be about 50-50, viewing "passing before the August recess" as the bill's last realistic window ("last realistic legislative gate"). This judgment is based on a weighted assessment of three risk scenarios: optimistic scenario (30% probability)—a compromise is reached within two weeks after Congress reconvenes from July 13-31, with the ethical clause receiving a limited compromise through a merged text from the Senate Agriculture Committee and the Banking Committee, completing the 60-vote full vote by the end of July; baseline scenario (40% probability)—negotiations continue after July 13, with a vote completed in early August but still requiring coordination between the two chambers, with the signing date pushed to late August or early September; pessimistic scenario (30% probability)—negotiations fail to reach an agreement before the August recess, and the bill is shelved until 2027, marking another setback for the closest crypto legislation to passing in history. For investors holding crypto concept stocks, Galaxy's three-scenario framework provides a richer path analysis than the single Polymarket probability (48%).

The Transmission Logic for Galaxy Digital's Own Business

Galaxy Digital's business structure exposes it to different valuation paths under the three scenarios: CLARITY Act passes—its on-chain lending business (Tokenet equity investment) and digital goods spot market business gain a clear CFTC regulatory framework, reducing compliance costs; CLARITY Act delayed until August—CoreWeave's 15-year AI data center contract (Phase 1 133MW delivered, preliminary adjusted EBITDA of about $90 million for Q2) provides cash flow buffer, making Galaxy one of the few crypto concept stocks that can maintain revenue resilience during the legislative void; CLARITY Act falls short—regulatory uncertainty for DeFi lending and institutional digital asset services continues, but AI data center revenue (non-crypto source) will further become the main anchor for valuation, and Galaxy's "AI + crypto dual-track" model will be more defensive than companies with single crypto exposure. Galaxy's research department conducts a systematic probability analysis of the CLARITY Act, which itself is a form of implicit brand marketing—it positions Galaxy as the most trusted research source for institutional investors in the crypto regulatory field, benefiting its asset management and institutional service business client expansion.

July 13th Reconvening is the Next Key Node, This Weekend is Either the Lowest Point of Sentiment or a Turning Point

Today (July 2) is the last complete trading day before Independence Day, with the U.S. market closing early tomorrow (July 3) and closed on July 4. The delay of the CLARITY Act combined with BTC dropping below $58,000 and the largest single-month outflow in ETF history creates an almost perfect "extreme fear" market sentiment scenario—the Fear and Greed Index is at 11, and historically this range has often been an important time window for medium to long-term accumulation (as seen in November 2022 and January 2023), but there is a lack of clear price catalysts in the short term. On a technical level, BTC has reached the 200-week moving average (around $58,000), which is an important support level in BTC's price history—having rebounded after touching it in November 2022, and briefly falling below it in March 2020 before quickly recovering. For crypto concept stocks, the most important upcoming calendar nodes are: July 13 (Congress reconvenes + CLARITY Act negotiations restart), July 17 (House Financial Services Committee CLARITY Act hearing), and August 3 (the most likely signing window predicted by Galaxy Research). Before this, BTC's continued stabilization around the 200-week moving average is the most important technical prerequisite for maintaining institutional confidence.

Data source: https://bbx.com/ Crypto concept stock information database, compiled based on yesterday's global listed company announcements and SEC/TSE disclosure documents.