Bitget UEX Daily Report｜Meta lays out cloud business AI infrastructure adjustments; Micron injects $250 million into Trump’s account; Walsh reiterates not providing forward guidance

I. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Waller reiterates no forward guidance, cautious approach to balance sheet reduction

• Federal Reserve Chair Waller emphasized the opening of new communication channels, moving away from traditional forward guidance, and plans to have thorough internal discussions at the next meeting; he also confirmed that reducing the balance sheet is still necessary but requires time and transparent communication to avoid hasty actions.
• White House economic advisor Hassett urged the Federal Reserve to avoid interest rate hikes, emphasizing that the current economy is driven by supply. Market impact: This statement reinforces the signal of the Federal Reserve's shift towards data dependence, helping to stabilize expectations ahead of the non-farm payroll data release, but it also increases short-term policy uncertainty, benefiting a short-term rebound in risk assets while suppressing the strength of the dollar.

International Commodities

Geopolitical factors continue to affect oil prices, gold remains high

• The U.S. is trying to persuade Iran to abandon tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, emphasizing that oil revenues after sanctions are lifted far exceed toll revenues, with talks progressing smoothly.
• The crude oil market is driven by both supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical risks. Market impact: Potential easing of tensions in the Middle East may alleviate concerns over crude oil supply, but the global demand outlook remains uncertain, supporting precious metals as safe-haven assets.

Macroeconomic Policy

Trump Account focuses on broad-based ETFs, Micron and other companies respond actively

• The U.S. Treasury announced that the "Trump Account" will default to investing in the State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF and provide other low-cost index fund options.
• Micron Technology announced a $250 million investment into the account, with Trump calling the policy a "great success." Market impact: This move aims to promote long-term equity investment, potentially boosting retail investor confidence and supporting broad-based U.S. stock indices, but the specific effects depend on implementation details.

II. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance (Real-time Update)

• Spot Gold: Approximately $4,060, +0.63%
• Spot Silver: Approximately $60, +1.15%
• WTI Crude Oil: Approximately $67.66, -1.27%
• Brent Crude Oil: Approximately $70.7, -1.15%
• Dollar Index (DXY): Approximately 101.392 points, -0.02%

Driving Factors Analysis: Gold maintains resilience under expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve communication, as investors await non-farm payroll data to assess the interest rate cut path, while geopolitical factors provide some support. Crude oil faces potential easing pressure from Iran-related negotiations, with supply risks somewhat alleviated, but global macro uncertainty still limits upside potential. The dollar index strengthened slightly, reflecting market caution ahead of data releases regarding Federal Reserve policy. Overall, commodities and the dollar show typical correlation: a stronger dollar suppresses some commodity prices, while safe-haven demand supports gold. In the short term, non-farm payroll data will be a key catalyst; if the data is strong, it may reinforce expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain restrictive policies, while a weak data release would benefit risk assets. Institutions generally believe that inter-asset correlation will continue in the current environment, and investors should pay attention to the latest developments from the Federal Reserve working group on the balance sheet and communication mechanisms.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Approximately $59,700 (+2.1%)
• ETH: Approximately $1,600 (+1.86%)
• Total cryptocurrency market cap: Approximately $2.15T (+1.8%).
• Market liquidation situation: Total liquidation of $545 million in 24 hours, with $280 million in short liquidations.
• Bitget BTC/USDT liquidation map: Current BTC price is approximately $59,701, with a relatively balanced short-term liquidation distribution, but the area above $60,800--$61,300 has dense short liquidations; if the price breaks above $60,000, it may trigger short stop-losses, pushing the market further up. The area around $58,000--$59,500 has gathered a significant number of long liquidations; if the price falls below this range, it may trigger a chain reaction of long liquidations, increasing short-term downward pressure.

• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of approximately $223 million the day before, with a net outflow of $77 million yesterday.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Closed slightly down about 0.03%, continuing small fluctuations
• S&P 500: Closed down about 0.22%, dragged down by tech weights
• Nasdaq: Closed down about 0.66%, pressured by semiconductor and storage sectors

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVDA: $197.58 (-1.25%)
• AAPL: $294.38 (+1.73%)
• MSFT: $384.28 (+3.02%)
• GOOGL: $361.21 (+1.07%)
• AMZN: $241.70 (+1.41%)
• META: $612.91 (+8.81%)
• TSLA: $425.30 (+1.12%)
• MU: $1,032.28 (-10.57%)
• SPCX: $157.54 (-7.80%)

Performance Summary and Driving Analysis: The tech sector shows overall differentiation, with META surging due to news of building its own cloud business and selling excess AI computing power, boosting market confidence in tech giants' diversified revenue; however, AI infrastructure-related stocks (such as storage, optical communication, and some semiconductors) suffered significant declines, reflecting a shift in concerns from "panic buying" to "optimizing existing stock." Apple, Amazon, and others remain relatively stable, benefiting from expectations of product upgrades, while hardware stocks like NVDA face short-term correction pressure. The overall trend indicates a shift in the AI theme from pure hardware to applications and cloud services, with significant differences in individual stock drivers: company-specific strategic adjustments vs. valuation pressures. With non-farm payroll data about to be released, market sensitivity to tech stocks may further increase.

Sector Movement Observation

Semiconductor/Storage Sector declines significantly

• Representative stocks: Micron Technology fell over 10%, with widespread declines in storage stocks like Western Digital.
• Driving factors: Meta's cloud business plan suggests a slowdown in upstream hardware procurement, raising market concerns about excess AI computing power supply.

AI Application Software Sector rises

• Representative stocks: RDDT rose nearly 14%, with PLTR and others following suit.
• Driving factors: Institutions believe AI will continue to drive software growth rather than become a "death knell."

III. In-depth Analysis of U.S. Stocks

III. In-depth Analysis of U.S. Stocks

1. Meta Platforms (META) - Cloud Business Layout Event Overview: Meta Platforms plans to launch a cloud infrastructure business, selling AI computing power and model access to external customers, directly competing with giants like AWS and Azure. At the same time, the company will sell excess computing power, aiming to convert previous massive data center investments into sustainable revenue growth. Following the announcement of this strategy, the stock price surged nearly 9% in the last trading day, showing a positive market response to the commercialization path. This move not only enhances infrastructure utilization but also marks a significant shift in tech giants' AI strategies from investment to monetization.

Market Interpretation: Institutional analysis suggests that this marks a shift in tech giants' focus towards the commercialization of AI infrastructure, helping to alleviate market concerns about high capital expenditures, while potentially having structural impacts on demand from upstream hardware suppliers. Diversified revenue sources are expected to enhance Meta's competitiveness in the AI ecosystem, but increased competition will also test execution efficiency.

Investment Insight: Closely track the progress of Meta's cloud business rollout, as its impact on the overall AI ecosystem is worth monitoring. Revenue diversification is expected to strengthen long-term competitiveness; it is recommended to verify capital return rates and market share changes in conjunction with financial reports.

2. Micron Technology (MU) - Investment in Trump Administration Fund Account Event Overview: Micron Technology announced a $250 million investment into the fund account established by the Trump administration (Trump Account) to enhance long-term savings opportunities for children and families, covering children in areas where the company operates. Trump publicly praised this move as a model of policy success. This investment echoes the company's previous commitment of hundreds of billions of dollars to semiconductor manufacturing and R&D in the U.S.; although the stock price is temporarily dragged down by the overall semiconductor sector, the company's actions highlight the combination of policy attractiveness and social responsibility.

Market Interpretation: Institutions generally view this as a positive signal of corporate deep involvement in the U.S. long-term industrial and investment plans, likely boosting confidence in related tech stocks and strengthening the stability of the semiconductor supply chain under policy support.

Investment Insight: Pay attention to the potential catalytic effect of corporate and policy interactions on stock prices. Demand for memory chips is expected to be strong in the long term driven by AI; it is recommended to seize investment opportunities that resonate with policy dividends and industry cycles.

3. Apple (AAPL) - Chip Procurement and Product Upgrades Event Overview: Apple is negotiating with the Trump administration regarding chip procurement while actively preparing for upgrades to new iPad Pro and MacBook Pro products. Against the backdrop of fluctuations in memory chip prices, the company seeks supply chain diversification to hedge cost pressures. This strategy, combined with product innovation, is expected to stabilize the supply chain and support medium- to long-term growth.

Market Interpretation: This move is seen as Apple's proactive management of geopolitical and cost risks, with the product upgrade plan providing new momentum for revenue, and the market expects that supply chain optimization will enhance profit resilience.

Investment Insight: Supply chain diversification and innovative product lines will further enhance Apple's risk resilience. Investors are advised to pay attention to subsequent financial reports for verification of procurement agreements and contributions from new products, capturing structural opportunities in the recovery of the consumer electronics cycle.

IV. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

1. Meta's cloud business expansion may indirectly benefit blockchain and decentralized computing projects, with the market focusing on opportunities for integration between AI and crypto infrastructure.

2. The non-profit organization Ethereum Institutional has been announced, positioned as an "institutional-level unified entry point" for the Ethereum ecosystem, focusing on connecting large financial institutions globally with the Ethereum network to promote institutional adoption of on-chain financial infrastructure. This organization has received funding support from investors including Bitmine, Sharplink, and Ethereum co-founder Joe Lubin.

3. SpaceX has presented a prototype of a handheld AI device to investors, designed to be thinner than an iPhone, positioned between small-screen touch phones and AI devices like the Rabbit R1. This device is described as running a proprietary operating system and integrating xAI's artificial intelligence technology, reportedly using Qualcomm Snapdragon chip solutions. However, Elon Musk quickly responded on the X platform, stating that the related reports are "completely untrue." Notably, Musk had previously stated that "Starlink phones are not out of the question," and claimed they would be "fully optimized around the highest efficiency neural networks."

4. According to a report from Jinshi citing the Financial Times, after the U.S. government intervened in the model release plans of Anthropic and OpenAI, AI guidelines are expected to be announced as early as next week.

5. The U.S. Treasury today announced the investment product portfolio for the "Trump Account," including the initial default investment plan to be launched at the start, as well as four other low-cost index fund options that can be selected by relevant parties in the coming months. At the account's launch, all funds invested in the "Trump Account" will be allocated to the State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF (SPYM).

V. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

|-------|----|----------|-------| | 20:30 | U.S. | June Non-Farm Payroll Data | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |

Important Event Forecast

• July 2 (Thursday)

1. U.S. June non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and initial jobless claims from last week will be released, with market expectations for an increase of 113,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.3%; ★★★

   July 3 (Friday)

2. U.S. stock markets will be closed for Independence Day holiday;

Institutional Views:

Renowned investment bank analysts believe that the communication shift by Federal Reserve Chair Waller marks an evolution of the policy framework, and in the short term, the market will focus on non-farm data to assess economic resilience and the probability of interest rate cuts. Gold and crypto assets exhibit safe-haven properties amid uncertainty, while oil is pressured by signals of geopolitical easing. The differentiation in U.S. tech stocks continues, with AI commercialization becoming the core of the new narrative. Overall, institutions maintain a neutral to cautious stance, suggesting attention to data-driven volatility and a balanced allocation between growth and defensive assets. The sustainability of short-term rebounds in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin depends on ETF flows and the macro environment, with a long-term positive outlook on institutional adoption trends.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search, with human verification for publication, and should not be considered as any investment advice. Data in the text may inevitably contain discrepancies; please refer to real-time market data.