Data: ARK Invest Bitcoin decline diverges from whale accumulation, market shows signs of a cyclical bottom

ARK Invest released the Q2 2026 Bitcoin report stating that Bitcoin fell by about 14% in the second quarter, dropping below the realized price for short-term holders, the 200-day moving average, and the on-chain average, with the technical outlook remaining bearish. However, the proportion of loss supply rose to about 54%, and the supply of long-term holders increased to a historical high of about 14.85 million BTC, which ARK views as a potential signal of seller exhaustion.

The report also pointed out that Bitcoin has not yet fallen back to the on-chain cost range of about $49,000 to $53,000, and the downside risk has not been fully released; the net outflow of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF in Q2 was about 71,000 BTC, and the preferred stock of Strategy, STRC, fell to a minimum of $74.57.