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The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 67.2%, while the probability of keeping the rates unchanged is 32.8%

2026-08-04 06:02:44

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged until September is 32.8%, while the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 67.2%. By October, the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged is 23.3%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 57.3%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 19.3%.

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