Data: In August, Bitcoin may maintain a range of $58,000 to $67,000, with a breakthrough still requiring macroeconomic and capital catalysts

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. released the August Bitcoin market outlook, stating that BTC is currently down about 50% from the cycle high of $126,200 set in October 2025, with prices approaching the on-chain average holding cost. It is expected that August will likely maintain a volatile trend. The report suggests that the most probable scenario for August (with a probability of about 55%) is that BTC will trade in the range of $57,700 to $67,000, potentially closing at $60,000 to $64,000 by the end of the month.

The bearish scenario (30% probability) involves a drop below $57,700, further testing the on-chain realized price of about $52,800; the bullish scenario (15% probability) requires a stable position above $67,000, along with continuous inflows of ETF funds, a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, and a weakening dollar, targeting $71,000 to $74,000. The current valuation is close to the on-chain cost area, and the spot Bitcoin ETF continues to see net inflows, providing support for the market; however, the high interest rate environment, sustained high U.S. Treasury yields, and a relatively strong dollar still limit the upside potential for risk assets. The report also reminds to pay attention to the impact of macro events such as U.S. non-farm employment, CPI, and the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting on market liquidity.