Data: Over 120 million dollars bet on Bitcoin's price in 2026, with a 68% probability of reaching 70,000 dollars

Bitcoin was reported at $63,500 around 1:30 PM Eastern Time on August 12, 2026. The total betting amount on the six active markets of the prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi exceeded $120 million, with traders placing bets on Bitcoin's subsequent price.

The largest Bitcoin price market on Polymarket had a trading volume of approximately $52.1 million, with a 68% probability that Bitcoin will reach $70,000 by the end of 2026, and a 79% probability of reaching $60,000. The market gives probabilities of 51%, 32%, and 17% for reaching $75,000, $80,000, and $90,000, respectively.

Polymarket's market trading volume for August 2026 is nearly $5 million, with a 70% probability that Bitcoin will reach $65,000 and an 81% probability that it will drop to $62,500 that month; the probabilities for reaching $67,500, $70,000, and $75,000 are 38%, 17%, and 3%, respectively. Polymarket also gives a 9% probability that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 within 2026. Kalshi data shows a 12% probability that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 before January 2027, with probabilities of 3% for reaching $150,000 and $200,000, respectively. Polymarket uses Binance BTC/USDT one-minute price K-line, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index, with different settlement rules.