Analyst: BTC has been suppressed by the cost line of short-term holders for 2 consecutive months, and the market is in a weak equilibrium state

Trader Murphy (@Murphychen888) posted on the X platform that the realized price for Bitcoin short-term holders (holding period < 3m) is currently about $67,900. Since June 20, BTC has been continuously suppressed after rebounding close to this cost line, and it has been nearly 2 months now. Meanwhile, the slope of this cost curve has approached zero, indicating that the related chip turnover activity continues to decline.

Analysis points out that a similar situation occurred at the end of the bear markets in 2018 and 2022, when BTC was suppressed by the < 3m realized price for about 3 consecutive months, followed by severe fluctuations due to the BCH hash war and the FTX incident, respectively. Continuous suppression by this cost line may reflect that the market is in a structurally weak equilibrium state, and any external force could break this weak equilibrium.