Upbit is in a hurry, a hasty counterattack aimed at regaining stablecoin market share

Original Title: A Data-Driven Look at Upbit's Recent Stablecoin Market Expansion Strategy

Original Author: c4lvin

Original Compilation: Chopper, Foresight News

Upbit launched a promotional campaign from July 26 to August 9, waiving the 0.05% transaction fee for stablecoin trading in the Korean won market. In the same week, the platform quickly listed dollar stablecoins such as RLUSD and USDG. This series of measures aims to boost the trading volume of stablecoins.

This is not Upbit's first time listing stablecoins, but it is the first time the platform has rapidly rolled out multiple stablecoin-related services in a very short period. This article will analyze the logic behind Upbit's current push into the stablecoin sector from three dimensions: the landscape of the stablecoin market in Korean exchanges, the trend of cross-border capital inflows and outflows of stablecoins, and the current regulatory environment.

Reshaping the Landscape of the Stablecoin Market in Korea

In January 2025, the Korean stablecoin trading market was dominated by two players: Upbit with a 53.5% share and Bithumb with a 42.5%, together accounting for over 95% of the market. Just 18 months later, the industry landscape was completely rewritten. By June 2026, Coinone ranked first with an average daily stablecoin trading volume of 84.58 billion won (34.8%); Bithumb followed closely with 75.57 billion won (31.1%); Upbit was at 73.02 billion won (30.1%), evolving the market into a three-way competition.

The catalyst for this shift was Coinone's decision to eliminate USDC trading fees entirely starting in October 2025. At that time, other competitors maintained fees in the range of 0.04% to 0.20%, while Coinone adhered to a zero-fee strategy. As a result, its market share climbed to 11.5% in March 2025 and reached 30.5% in December, surpassing Upbit's 29.7% for the first time. Trading demand, which is highly sensitive to fees, flowed significantly to Coinone, primarily consisting of two types: demand for capital outflow to participate in overseas derivatives trading and demand for earning dollar exchange rate profits.

This clearly demonstrates that the demand for stablecoin trading has strong price elasticity. Regardless of which exchange is used to purchase, stablecoins are homogeneous assets, and many users will withdraw their coins to external wallets after buying. Therefore, the core factors distinguishing the competitiveness of each exchange are reduced to fees and liquidity. In fact, a mere 0.05 percentage point difference in fees is enough to alter industry rankings.

It is noteworthy that this reshuffling of the landscape occurred only in the stablecoin sector. By June 2026, in the overall cryptocurrency trading market, Upbit held a 60.0% share, Bithumb 32.0%, with the two together accounting for over 90%, while Coinone only had 6.2%. In other words, in a market where Upbit holds an absolute advantage overall, stablecoins represent its most significant shortcoming.

Meanwhile, the overall market size is rapidly contracting. In July 2026, the average daily total trading volume of stablecoins across the five major Korean exchanges was $466.69 million, a staggering 80.3% decrease compared to $2.37 billion in January. Dunamu (Upbit's parent company) reported Q1 2026 revenue of 234.6 billion won, down 55% year-on-year; operating profit fell to 88 billion won, a drop of 78%. In just six months, the market size shrank to one-fifth of its original size. In such a macro environment, sectors that are resilient to bull and bear cycles hold far greater strategic value than during periods of market prosperity.

Stablecoins as the Core Vehicle for Cross-Border Capital Flow in Korea

To understand the essence of the demand for stablecoins in Korea, one must track the destination of funds after users purchase stablecoins.

In June 2026 alone, the five major Korean exchanges saw a total of 27.625 trillion won in stablecoin withdrawals to overseas exchanges, while the inflow of stablecoins from abroad was 22.022 trillion won, resulting in a net outflow of 560.3 billion won. Since the data collection began in January 2025, there has been a continuous net outflow for 18 consecutive months, with the cumulative net outflow reaching approximately 14.9 trillion won.

This persistent net outflow sharply contrasts with the stock market. In Q2 2026, Korea's net selling of overseas stock investments amounted to 16.185 trillion won, while the net outflow of stablecoins reached 16.872 trillion won. Funds from overseas stock investments may flow back to the domestic market when market conditions reverse; however, even during a downturn, stablecoins continue to maintain a net outflow, reflecting their unique positioning in the Korean market.

Stablecoins serve as a channel for transferring capital to overseas exchanges and DeFi, a role that is not inherent and makes this phenomenon worthy of further study. The introduction of stablecoins in the Korean won trading market was relatively late, with Upbit being the last of the five exchanges to launch the USDT/KRW trading pair in 2024. Prior to this, users had to buy volatile assets like Bitcoin or XRP to transfer funds to overseas exchanges, incurring risks from price fluctuations during the transfer process.

Once the KRW trading pair was launched, this cross-border functionality was quickly assumed by stablecoins. The Financial Supervisory Service of Korea began specifically tracking stablecoin cross-border transfer data in January 2025, indicating that regulatory authorities have recognized stablecoins as a primary tool for cross-border capital flows. As early as 2019, the global trading volume of USDT had already surpassed that of Bitcoin; however, due to the delayed launch of the KRW trading pair in Korea, this development process was effectively compressed after 2024.

The Actual Effects of the Stablecoin Trading Expansion Strategy

Returning to Upbit's decision, the fee waiver is a limited-time event, ending on August 9; meanwhile, Coinone, which has captured a significant market share, has implemented a permanent zero-fee policy since October 2025.

There are precedents for the effects of limited-time promotions. Korbit launched a zero-fee and rewards campaign for USDC from January 1 to April 13, 2026, during which the stablecoin market share reached 3.48%, but after the campaign ended, trading volume reverted to Upbit and Bithumb. Referring to this historical case, it is likely that the trading volume stimulated by Upbit's promotional activity will also fade after the promotion ends. Below, we will assess the subsequent trends by comparing data during the promotional period with regular periods.

The following is a comparison of Upbit's average daily trading volume of stablecoins during the promotional period and the month prior: The average daily trading volume in the 30 days before the promotion was 46.96 billion won; after the promotional campaign began, the average daily trading volume surged by 162.0% to 123.06 billion won. Excluding weekend factors and only counting weekdays, the increase was 170%, rising from 55.03 billion won to 148.69 billion won.

The policy's effectiveness was very rapid. On July 25, the day before the event, the trading volume was 29.95 billion won; on the day the event started (Sunday), it reached 72.19 billion won, doubling compared to the previous weekend; on the first weekday, July 27, it surged to 162.27 billion won, peaking at 203.29 billion won on July 29.

The data reveals three key phenomena:

• The new trading volume almost entirely came from USDT. The average daily trading volume of USDT rose from 46.06 billion won to 120.71 billion won, maintaining a 98.1% share of Upbit's total stablecoin trading volume, with almost no change before and after the event. The newly launched RLUSD (average daily 710 million won) and USDG (average daily 340 million won) contributed only about 1% to the overall increment, with their popularity fading quickly. RLUSD's trading volume was 5.6 billion won on its launch day, rapidly falling back to around 100 million won; USDG's trading volume was 2.24 billion won on its launch day, also quickly shrinking. The excitement generated by new coin launches lasted only one day. Meanwhile, long-tail stablecoins like USD1, USDS, USDE, and gold-pegged assets like XAUT, even with zero fees, saw trading volumes remain flat or even decline. Conclusion: Upbit's recent stablecoin expansion strategy did not divert USDT's trading flow to other types of stablecoins.
• The promotional effect has already begun to wane before the event has ended. The average daily trading volume in the first week was 148.65 billion won, dropping to 84.68 billion won in the second week. Excluding weekends and only considering weekdays, trading volume decreased by 33%, from 163.944 billion won to 110.58 billion won. This is a typical pattern of rapid decline in excitement early in a promotional event.
• Exchange rate fluctuations introduced a variable. In July, the Korean won strengthened, causing the price of USDT on Upbit to drop from 1,517 won on June 26 to 1,423 won on August 4, coinciding with the promotional period. Exchange rate fluctuations can create demand for arbitrage and bottom-fishing, so part of the increase in trading volume came from exchange rate trends, not solely from the fee waiver.

In summary, once the promotion ends and fees are restored, Upbit will find it difficult to retain the market share temporarily gained during the event. As long as Coinone's permanent zero-fee policy remains in effect, Upbit will face a dilemma: either follow suit and permanently waive stablecoin fees or sacrifice market share to maintain fee income.

Regulatory Institutionalization as a Key Variable

I believe Upbit is also aware that the increase in trading volume from waiving fees is merely a short-term effect, and launching multiple new stablecoins cannot truly disperse USDT's trading flow.

Calculations show that over the past 15 days, Upbit has forfeited approximately 1 billion won in fee revenue. Why invest resources in a low-margin sector and actively give up fee income? The changes occurring in the Korean regulatory environment are an important clue.

First, the launch of the Korean won stablecoin is imminent. The Korean government has officially planned to promote the legislation of the "Digital Asset Basic Law" in the second half of 2026 as part of its economic growth strategy. The bill is expected to include provisions for the issuance of Korean won stablecoin licenses, reserve asset requirements, and user redemption rights. The US GENIUS Act is expected to be fully implemented by the end of 2026 to early 2027, at which point dollar stablecoins will usher in a new wave of global adoption.

Second, changes in Dunamu's equity structure. In November 2025, Naver Financial decided to make Dunamu a wholly-owned subsidiary through a share swap plan; both parties proposed to build a payment ecosystem centered on stablecoins and digital wallets as an important collaborative direction. From this perspective, Upbit's stablecoin trading volume, liquidity, and user base are not just sources of fee income but also distribution channels for future payment services. Therefore, expanding the business base as much as possible holds strategic significance.

Third, the contradiction lies in the fact that regulatory regulations may prevent Dunamu from fully enjoying the benefits of Korean won stablecoins. The current "Specific Financial Transaction Information Act" and "Virtual Asset User Protection Act" stipulate that virtual asset service providers cannot trade assets issued by related parties. After Dunamu is incorporated into the Naver group, if Naver leads a consortium to issue a Korean won stablecoin, there exists a regulatory interpretation that Upbit may be restricted from listing that coin. Whether it can launch a domestic Korean won stablecoin remains uncertain, but the opportunity that can be firmly grasped now is to become the distribution hub for dollar stablecoins in Korea.