Data: Predicted market search popularity has decreased by 83% compared to the peak of the World Cup, with Kalshi leading in transaction volume

According to The Defiant, global interest in prediction markets has returned to levels seen before the 2026 World Cup. Google Trends shows that the global weekly index for "prediction market" reached a five-year high of 100 during the week of June 7-13, then dropped to 17 during the week of August 9-15, a decrease of 83% from the peak; the daily peak occurred on July 19, the day of the World Cup final, reaching 100, and fell to 7 on August 16. The World Cup opened on June 11, maintaining high interest throughout the tournament.

In terms of trading volume, DefiLlama data shows that the cash trading volume for prediction markets set a record of $17.27 billion in July, up from $14.78 billion in June; as of August 17, the total trading volume for August is $7.83 billion, with an estimated total for the month of about $14.3 billion, approximately 17% lower than July. Kalshi's trading volumes for June and July were $9.40 billion and $12.37 billion, respectively, with $5.73 billion so far in August; Polymarket's volumes during the same period were $4.29 billion, $3.68 billion, and $1.18 billion. The trading volume ratio of Kalshi to Polymarket increased from 2.2 times in June to 4.9 times so far in August, with Kalshi accounting for 77.4% of the category's trading volume in the past seven days.