Analysis: This round of BTC increase is accompanied by a decrease in OI, and spot demand has emerged for the first time

On-chain data analyst Murphy stated that this round of BTC price increase is "a bit different": the scale of futures liquidations has reached a record, but the open interest (OI) has simultaneously decreased. The price increase is mainly driven by short liquidations or buy-ins to cover positions, which belongs to the clearing of existing positions rather than new leveraged net exposure. If driven solely by liquidations, prices often show a spike followed by a drop; this time, after the surge, the price has stabilized, indicating that there are other spot funds taking over.

Murphy pointed out that if the contracts are dominated by long positions, OI usually rises and rates increase, but this round saw OI decrease almost throughout, with no large-scale new leverage entering the market. The exchange's spot relative trading volume (SRV) reached 2.94 from August 19 to 20, about three times the average of the past 30 days. Similar volume increases in the past two years have mostly occurred during panic sell-offs or bull market phases, which is different from the scenarios in January when it rebounded to about $96,000 and in May when it rebounded to about $82,000, where leverage was dominant.

He emphasized that the demand for spot is only a potential sign that has appeared for the first time since entering a bear market, combined with the price challenging the short-term holder cost line (STH-RP) and the seller exhaustion index entering extreme zones, it is still insufficient to conclude a trend reversal.