Garrett Jin: Bitcoin holds key support, maintaining a constructive outlook before the end of the year under macro pressures

BTC OG insider whale agent Garrett Jin released a market outlook indicating that the macro environment has clearly tightened this week, with Brent crude oil approaching $95, and the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond breaking through 4.8%. The market's expectation of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September has risen to about 70%. Bitcoin has slightly retraced under this pressure but successfully held the key support level of $76,600, then rebounded to the high range of $77,000.

On-chain cost basis data shows that a significant amount of new supply has formed in the $75,000 to $80,000 range, providing strong support for the market; the $80,000 to $82,500 range is currently the largest concentration of resistance. A daily close above $82,500 and a successful retest confirmation will be a key signal for supply clearance. In terms of ETF liquidity, there was a net inflow of about $3.5 billion into U.S. spot ETFs in August, but a two-way flow has appeared at the start of September, with a net outflow of about $237 million on Tuesday, and retail activity has also cooled down.

Regarding downside risks, if the daily close falls below $76,600, and ETF flows, Coinbase premiums, and 7-day net realized profits all weaken simultaneously, it will be seen as a clear warning signal. This Friday's non-farm payroll data will be the next important macro testing point; if the data is hot, it will strengthen rate hike expectations, and the $76,600 support may come under pressure again.