PitchBook provided a valuation scenario for Kalshi, with a maximum of 42.1 billion USD

According to a 46-page report from financial investment data company PitchBook, the market platform Kalshi has a baseline scenario valuation of approximately $30.4 billion, a peak valuation of about $42.1 billion during strong market performance, and a pessimistic scenario of $22.8 billion. Kalshi completed a $1 billion Series F financing in May this year, with a post-money valuation of $22 billion.

PitchBook expects Kalshi's revenue to reach $6.4 billion by 2030, with adjusted profits reaching $3.7 billion, and believes that partnerships with platforms and market makers such as Robinhood and Susquehanna will help consolidate market share. The report lists the regulatory risks of the sports prediction market as a key variable affecting valuation, with data showing that the sports market currently contributes about 69.9% of Kalshi's event fee revenue; if Exotics products such as multi-event combinations are included, the proportion rises to 82.4%.

Several states in the U.S. and Native American tribes are suing over the legality of Kalshi's sports prediction products, and related cases have created discrepancies between federal appellate courts, with the Supreme Court expected to intervene next year. PitchBook believes that even if the final ruling is unfavorable to Kalshi, the company may still adjust its business model through state-level licensing and the development of non-sports prediction products, but a significant decline in sports revenue will still notably impact its growth expectations.