Analysis: China may have stockpiled 343 immersion deep ultraviolet lithography machines

According to the South China Morning Post, former U.S. officials stated that Chinese semiconductor factories have stockpiled hundreds of immersion lithography machines worth billions of dollars in recent years and urged Washington and its allies to stop further exports. The Centre for Technology & Statecraft, established in August 2026, released a report in late September estimating that by early 2026, Chinese wafer fabs had acquired approximately 343 immersion deep ultraviolet lithography systems. The report was co-authored by former U.S. export control official Nicholas Brown and former White House and Department of Commerce technology policy advisor Saif Khan.

The report estimates that about 270 of these are ASML Twinscan NXT:1980i. The authors claim that although these devices lag behind extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, they can be modified for the production of 7-nanometer logic chips and advanced memory required for artificial intelligence processors (including Huawei's Ascend series). Chinese wafer fabs spent over $13 billion in 2024 to purchase about 90 NXT:1980i units, and acquired another 89 units in 2025. ASML disclosed that, by destination, China accounted for 41% of its net system sales in 2024, 33% in 2025, dropping to 19% in the first quarter of 2026 and 14% in the second quarter.

Since September 2023, the Netherlands has required export licenses for the NXT:2000i and more advanced immersion deep ultraviolet equipment, effectively banning these models from being shipped to China; a year later, the licensing requirements were extended to the NXT:1980i, but this model can still be approved for shipment on a case-by-case basis.