HSBC downgraded NVIDIA's rating to "Hold," with a target price reduced from $365 to $170

According to CNBC, HSBC analyst Frank Lee downgraded Nvidia's rating from "Buy" to "Hold," and lowered the target price from $365 to $170, indicating only about a 2.3% upside from Thursday's closing price.

Lee believes that the stock price will remain under pressure until Nvidia clearly establishes a formal succession plan and the new CEO proves their execution capability. Currently, Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress is serving as the interim CEO.

Lee also pointed out that the risk of the U.S. tightening chip export restrictions further cannot be ignored. Over the past six quarters, about 11% of Nvidia's revenue came from markets outside the U.S. and Taiwan, and HSBC believes these markets may become the focus of tightened export restrictions.

In HSBC's pessimistic scenario, if export restrictions lead to an 11% reduction in Nvidia's revenue for the fiscal year 2028 compared to the baseline scenario, earnings per share could drop to $13.57, approximately 13% lower than HSBC's baseline forecast of $15.65, and about 14% lower than the market consensus of $15.77.