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first_img Variant Fund Investment Partner: The bottom of the cryptocurrency market may have appeared in July, and three types of assets will benefit from the market recovery

Variant Fund investment partner Alana Levin stated in her market thoughts for Q4 2026 that the bottom of the crypto market likely occurred at some point in July. She wrote in early July that the bottom seemed close, with Bitcoin at $59,000, Ethereum at $1,600, and ZEC at $420. She mentioned that the question has shifted to whether the bull market is genuinely starting or if it's a false rally, and which projects will benefit the most in the early bull market, assuming the market is in the early stages of a new crypto bull market.Levin indicated that the increasingly formed consensus is that marginal funds are most likely to flow into value storage protocols as currency and protocols that can generate income. She believes Bitcoin is the dominant asset for digital value storage currently, while other competing assets may be valued based on their market capitalization relative to Bitcoin's market cap and its changes. For income-generating protocols, she expects investors to examine whether the income comes from crypto-native activities (like Pump) or traditional financial activities (like Hyperliquid), whether it persists during market downturns, and profit margins; projects with exposure to real-world assets and stablecoin growth, which are expected to attract institutional users and are still led by founders after surviving a bear market, are more likely to achieve higher multiples.She also categorized on-chain projects that can benchmark against non-crypto businesses as a third category, believing that most belong to narrative trading rather than long-term investment. Themes include routing, reasoning, computing power, data collection, and interface-related directions in artificial intelligence, and she is skeptical about whether most scenarios require blockchain; if such projects significantly outperform, she would view it as a signal of nearing the top.

first_img ARK Invest Digital Asset Research Director: USDe scale is expected to expand to 40 billion USD

ARK Invest's Director of Digital Asset Research Lorenzo Valente published a discussion on the synthetic dollar protocol Ethena: tokenized stocks are changing the landscape in which ENA operates. He stated that the supply of USDe had bottomed out at $3.8 billion and has now risen by about 30%, recovering to nearly $5 billion.Lorenzo Valente: The inverted or low funding rates in the crypto market have forced more USDe collateral to shift towards off-chain yields such as government bonds, with sUSDe's average annualized rate once approaching or falling below SOFR; the market capitalization has remained stable over the long term, and the open interest has also limited the pace of expansion. He noted that basis trading has rebounded to about 20% of the collateral and is growing rapidly, with the U.S. stock market size at approximately $70 trillion, averaging over 8% annual growth. Continued bullish demand is expected to bring sustained positive funding rates, with lower stock volatility and lower hedging costs.He believes this is the first clear path for USDe to expand its supply to over $20 billion, and reaching $30 billion to $40 billion in the next 12 to 18 months would not be surprising, as the upper limit has shifted from crypto open interest to tokenized stock open interest. He also mentioned that Ethena's infrastructure and operations have been validated, and it is expected that Ethena Pay will further drive USDe from the demand side, with the chains, protocols, and vaults supporting USDe's supply and circulation strategies becoming the main beneficiaries.

first_img MetaMask Staking exits Lido validator due to infrastructure investigation

The liquidity staking protocol Lido announced that MetaMask Staking (formerly Consensys Staking) has taken precautionary measures to protect customer assets related to its Ethereum validators after investigating an infrastructure breach incident. The related measures include withdrawing its Ethereum validators from the Lido protocol, which may result in some loss of rewards. If the validators go offline recently to reduce potential network slashing risks, it may also incur downtime penalties.Lido stated that the related validators have begun to withdraw, with the last batch expected to complete the withdrawal by October 7, 2026, but full withdrawals may not be completed by then. stETH holders do not need to take any action. The ETH withdrawn from the validators operated by MetaMask Staking is expected to gradually return to the protocol during the cycle of the validators completing the withdrawal, withdrawing, and re-entering, with the estimated maximum duration of this process being about 45 days due to extended queuing times.Lido reminds that staking operations are non-custodial, and MetaMask does not manage withdrawal keys on behalf of customers. The diversified node operators of the Lido protocol and other security mechanisms, including a temporary reserve of over 6,750 stETH, are designed to control and mitigate disruptions to the normal operation of the protocol. A comprehensive investigation is ongoing, and further updates will be announced separately.

The U.S. SEC sues two private equity funds: suspected of falsely selling Pre-IPO shares of OpenAI, SpaceX, etc., and misappropriating investor funds

According to Fortune, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has filed lawsuits against two private fund cases, accusing the relevant fund advisors of raising funds under the pretext of investing in popular tech companies like OpenAI and SpaceX before their IPOs, but allegedly providing false information to investors and misappropriating some of the funds.The SEC stated that Meyer Global Management and its head Owen Meyer are suspected of raising at least $18.5 million from nearly 100 investors to purchase shares of companies before their IPOs, but misappropriated at least $1.27 million, including using fund money for personal consumption, paying entertainment expenses, and personal investments. Among them, the SEC accused Meyer of establishing a fund for investing in shares of OpenAI and SpaceX, but some of the funds did not actually hold the relevant assets.In another case, the SEC and federal prosecutors accused Beyond Alpha Ventures heads Christopher Dinelli and Jacob Frankel of raising over $8.7 million from 35 investors and falsely promoting that the fund held shares in companies like SpaceX and xAI.The SEC stated that the two provided false investment reports, with some of the funds being used for options trading, film investments, and personal use. The SEC emphasized that the accused tech companies and their management have not been found to have engaged in misconduct. Regulatory agencies have been continuously monitoring investment products that promote "acquiring shares before popular private company IPOs" and have launched multiple enforcement actions against relevant private fund advisors.
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