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The level of Bitcoin overselling has reached a new high since the pandemic crash in 2020, analysts say it may face a technical rebound towards $70,000

After a decline of about 30% in the past month, the Bitcoin daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to around 15.5, the lowest level since the market crash triggered by the pandemic in March 2020, indicating that the market has entered an extremely oversold state. Analysis points out that similar levels were seen during the pandemic crash in 2020 and the adjustment period in February 2026, after which Bitcoin rebounded by approximately 50% and 30%, respectively. Currently, bulls are still holding the critical support level of $60,000. If this level remains effective, Bitcoin is expected to launch a technical rebound towards the area around $70,650, where the 20-day EMA moving average is located; if it breaks below $60,000, it may further test the mid-point of $50,000.Short-term Bitcoin holders have seen their profit-loss ratio drop to a historical low, indicating that a large number of recent buyers are exiting at a loss, and market sentiment is nearing panic. Crypto analyst Scott Melker stated that about 5.3 million long-held Bitcoins are currently in a state of unrealized loss, a scale higher than during the FTX collapse, and the highest level since the pandemic crash in 2020. Melker noted that market sentiment is highly synchronized with price movements, with traders being extremely optimistic at the peak in May and falling into an extremely pessimistic state by June 3rd, "usually this means the bottom is not far away, but that is just usually."

After 14 years, Bitcoin addresses from the Satoshi Nakamoto era have shown activity, and some dormant wallets may still be controlled by their original owners

According to CoinDesk, an address from the "Satoshi era" that has never been used since March 2011, holding 35.55 bitcoins (approximately $2.54 million), made a transfer this week, which is seen as one of the first publicly visible responses from defendants in a lawsuit involving approximately 3.8 million bitcoins (valued at about $285 billion) in New York.On-chain data shows that the address transferred 15 BTC to a new address on June 2, keeping the remaining 20.55 BTC as change. The address initially received bitcoins on March 27, 2011, when the price of BTC was less than $1.In March of this year, a plaintiff using the pseudonym "Noah Doe" filed a lawsuit in New York state court alongside two LLCs from Wyoming, attempting to claim ownership of approximately 3.8 million long-dormant bitcoin wallets under New York's lost property law, positioning themselves as the "discoverer." The court approved sending on-chain notifications to the relevant wallets via the bitcoin OP_RETURN field.In July 2025, the advisory firm Salomon Brothers Strategic Advisors sent dust transactions with links to legal notices to 39,000 wallets, including the aforementioned address, requesting holders to prove ownership within 90 days.Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Research, pointed out that the address corresponds to defendant number 38215 in the case, stating, "Clearly, these bitcoins have not actually been abandoned."Additionally, another address that had been dormant for 15 years, 1CDSyXAQxro4FPUoqAQb81642ruqDsUiNp, also transferred 20 BTC (approximately $1.48 million) on the same day, but this address did not appear on Noah Doe's list of lawsuits.Analysis suggests that the on-chain movements mentioned above indicate that some bitcoins from the Satoshi era, considered "abandoned assets," are actually still under the control of the original holders.

Analysis: On-chain data does not show that investors are massively selling off crypto assets to participate in the SpaceX IPO

According to CoinDesk, despite market speculation that some retail investors may sell Bitcoin to participate in SpaceX's record-breaking $75 billion IPO, stablecoin liquidity and on-chain data show that there are currently no signs of large-scale capital withdrawal from the crypto market.This SpaceX IPO is valued at approximately $1.8 trillion, allocating up to 30% of shares to retail investors through platforms such as Robinhood, Fidelity, and Charles Schwab, significantly higher than the traditional IPO's allocation of about 10% to individual investors. After the roadshow began, subscription demand has exceeded the issuance scale.Data shows that the outflow of USDT and USDC remains within the normal range since February this year, with no abnormal redemptions or supply contractions. In contrast, on June 6, Bitcoin and Ethereum recorded net outflows of approximately 66,470 BTC and 2.49 million ETH from exchanges, indicating that more investors are transferring assets to private wallets, showing signs of buying the dip rather than concentrated cashing out.However, on-chain data cannot reflect the trading behavior of users on platforms like Robinhood and Coinbase, so whether crypto investors are selling assets to subscribe to SpaceX stock still requires waiting for relevant brokers to release subsequent data.Currently, the most significant capital outflows are coming from spot ETFs. Data shows that as of June 3, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, with total redemptions of approximately $4.4 billion; spot Ethereum ETFs have seen capital outflows for 17 consecutive trading days before returning to slight net inflows.According to the plan, SpaceX will complete pricing on June 11 and will be listed on Nasdaq under the stock code SPCX on June 12.
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