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Bitwise Asset Management points out that the recent strength of Bitcoin is not contrary to a risk-averse environment, but is directly driven by geopolitical conflicts. Since the escalation of the situation in the Middle East at the end of February, BTC has risen by about 12%, while the S&P 500 index has fallen by about 1% and gold has dropped by about 10%, showing a clear divergence in performance.Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and research director Ryan Rasmussen state that Bitcoin is simultaneously embodying two logics: "store of value asset" and "potential international settlement currency." As the financial system becomes "weaponized" and the global payment system fractures, the appeal of non-sovereign neutral assets continues to rise. The report suggests that geopolitical fragmentation is prompting some countries to explore alternative paths to bypass the traditional financial system, such as attempting to introduce Bitcoin settlements in trade. This trend enhances BTC's potential position in the global monetary system. Based on the aforementioned changes, Bitwise indicates that the Bitcoin valuation framework is being reshaped; if it captures both store of value and transaction settlement demand, long-term price expectations may be underestimated, and $1 million could shift from a target ceiling to a "benchmark level."

According to Jinshi reports, the Iran war has restored the traditional relationship between the dollar and stock market volatility, with risk-averse investors flocking back to U.S. assets. Since the outbreak of the war, the positive correlation between the dollar and the fear index VIX has continued to strengthen, currently nearing its highest level since 2024. Shaun Osborne, Chief Foreign Exchange Strategist at Scotiabank, stated that if the situation in the Gulf region does not trigger a significant and sustained rebound in VIX, the dollar may further widen its decline.

Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital) founder Yi Lihua stated that peace negotiations typically move from disagreement to consensus. The motivation for continued warfare among all parties is weakening under the current circumstances, and the conflict may gradually come to an end. "We still insist that the war will end; neither side has any reason to continue fighting. Waiting for a rebound without taking profits, the moment an agreement is reached will be a bullish signal."He pointed out that, from a medium to long-term perspective, the market is generally waiting for a potential large-scale financial crisis. There are signs of defensive positioning on the funding side, such as large capital holding a high proportion of cash and sovereign entities increasing their gold holdings. In this context, if a crisis occurs again, it will be a key moment to test whether Bitcoin possesses the attributes of a safe-haven asset, and it may also present significant opportunities for low-position allocations.In addition, Yi Lihua believes that AI technology is bringing a new round of opportunities for outstanding entrepreneurs. A small number of teams can create global products, reducing financing and organizational management costs. Especially experienced serial entrepreneurs should seize this "AI Age of Exploration."

Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee stated that since the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, Ethereum has become the second-best performing asset, with Bitcoin ranking third, and both have significantly outperformed the stock market.He pointed out that current war spending is about $30 billion per month and could rise to a scale of $100 billion in the future; in contrast, the impact of rising energy prices on consumers is relatively limited—each $10 increase in oil prices corresponds to about $4 billion to $5 billion per month in consumer pressure.Tom Lee believes that against the backdrop of high fiscal spending and energy volatility, the allocation value of crypto assets as "liquidity and risk assets" is rising.

According to a report by Jinshi, Mitsubishi UFJ analyst Derek Halpenny stated that if the conflict in Iran leads to an increase in capital inflows into safe-haven assets, the dollar may strengthen further. He anticipates that if the stock market experiences a larger decline, the dollar will strengthen further. In a more severe scenario, if Brent crude oil prices rise from $110 per barrel to the range of $120 to $160, the dollar index could rise to around 105.

According to The Block, JPMorgan analysts stated that during the Iran war, Bitcoin outperformed gold and silver, showing signs of inflows and increased activity, while precious metals faced significant outflows and position liquidations.Analysts pointed out that gold ETFs saw outflows of nearly $11 billion, and silver ETFs have completely reversed the inflows since last summer, while Bitcoin showed net inflows during the same period, indicating its strong performance relative to traditional safe-haven assets. The analysts noted that following the outbreak of war, cryptocurrency activity in Iran surged, with local residents transferring funds from domestic exchanges to self-custody wallets and international platforms. Bitcoin's borderless nature, self-custody capability, and 24/7 trading make it the preferred tool for capital movement during times of economic instability, currency pressure, and capital controls.In terms of institutional holdings, gold and silver futures positions have significantly decreased since January, while Bitcoin futures positions have remained relatively stable. The liquidity situation has also reversed, with Bitcoin's market breadth surpassing that of gold.

JPMorgan stated that in the recent context of the Iran conflict, Bitcoin has exhibited characteristics similar to safe-haven assets, showing greater resilience compared to gold and silver. Data shows that gold prices have fallen by about 15%, while gold ETFs have seen nearly $11 billion in outflows, and the inflows previously accumulated in silver ETFs have essentially been completely reversed. In contrast, Bitcoin has experienced net inflows during the same period, indicating relative strength.Analysis points out that gold and silver were previously at high levels, and with rising interest rates and a strengthening dollar, the market has seen profit-taking and position reductions. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has attracted inflows during this phase, demonstrating a different funding behavior compared to traditional safe-haven assets. Additionally, on-chain data shows that cryptocurrency activity in the Iran region has significantly increased during the conflict, with users transferring funds to self-custody wallets and overseas platforms. JPMorgan believes that Bitcoin's characteristics of strong cross-border liquidity, support for self-custody, and 24/7 trading make it an important tool for capital transfer in environments of economic instability and capital controls.

According to Jinshi reports, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that the dollar has reestablished its safe-haven status, and the dollar is currently appreciating, with capital continuously flowing in.

According to Jinshi Data, Christopher Wong, a strategist at OCBC Bank in Singapore, stated that as people expect the Middle East conflict to ease and the strength of the dollar has weakened, the safe-haven demand for gold has begun to re-emerge. This further proves that gold has not lost its appeal as a safe-haven asset. It was once pushed out of the market by the dollar, and now that pressure is easing.In the short term, gold prices may continue to be influenced by expectations of the Federal Reserve's policy path, the movement of the dollar, and changes in the geopolitical situation. However, this rebound indicates that price declines may still find support unless real yields rise significantly.

Vitalik Buterin posted on the X platform to interpret the Ethereum Foundation's new mission statement, "EF Mandate." He expressed that he will double down on Ethereum and is full of expectations for its future development.Vitalik Buterin pointed out that Ethereum has a unique role in the global digital ecosystem, with its mission being to become a "sanctuary technology" to maintain technological self-sovereignty and promote collaboration in a non-coercive, non-dominant environment. The core goal of Ethereum is to ensure that no individual, organization, or ideology can achieve absolute control in cyberspace and to provide users with an "exit mechanism." The Ethereum Foundation, as the "guardian" of the network, will continue to focus on advancing the CROPS principles, which include censorship resistance and anti-capture, open source, privacy, and security. It will prioritize decentralization, verifiability, network activity, and security at the protocol level while promoting capability upgrades such as account abstraction to reduce reliance on intermediaries.At the application layer, the Ethereum Foundation will strive to create a "zero option" user experience that balances security, privacy, and user autonomy, complementing broader ecosystem projects to jointly promote the development of the Ethereum ecosystem.

According to Jinshi News, the US dollar rose to a three-and-a-half-month high against a basket of currencies, as ongoing conflicts in the Middle East prompted investors to seek safe havens and pushed up oil prices.In a report, Commerzbank analyst Falkmar Beutel stated that although the Iran conflict is nearing the end of its second week, there are still no signs of resolution. He pointed out that due to stronger economic growth in the US and the possibility that the Federal Reserve may delay expected rate cuts to address potential rising inflation, the dollar may strengthen in the short term.

According to Gate market data, as the Middle East war escalates and drives the dollar to strengthen across the board, the euro to dollar exchange rate has fallen to its lowest level since August of last year, dropping 0.4% to 1.1467 on Friday, marking a new low in over seven months. Since the beginning of this year, the euro has cumulatively declined by more than 2%. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has led the dollar to strengthen against all G10 currencies on Friday, prompting the latest round of declines for the euro. Oil prices have risen above $100 per barrel, further increasing the pressure on the euro.

According to Jin Ten's report, a strategist from TD Securities stated in a report that the dollar is currently acting as a "conditional safe-haven asset." They pointed out that the dollar is no longer a natural safe haven, but the nature of the current shock has restored its safe-haven characteristics. As the United States remains a relatively closed economy, with energy independence and geographical isolation, the Iran war has driven safe-haven funds towards the dollar.

According to Jinshi News, the US dollar is experiencing its best week in over a year, strengthening as a safe haven due to the Middle East conflict and soaring oil prices. This week, the Bloomberg Spot Dollar Index rose 1.4%, marking the largest increase since 2024. Hostilities have disrupted crude oil production, leading traders to cut bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts, further boosting the dollar. Although US employers unexpectedly cut jobs last month, the focus remains on energy prices, and this data only briefly weighed on the dollar, which quickly regained its upward momentum.

According to Jinshi, Deutsche Bank stated that the risks of artificial intelligence in the U.S. stock market are undermining the dollar's safe-haven status.

Bloomberg ETF senior analyst Eric Balchunas posted on the X platform that Bitcoin ETFs have attracted another $500 million in inflows, with 10 out of 11 U.S. Bitcoin ETFs being favored by investors. Additionally, since the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, Bitcoin has risen about 12%, while gold has seen a decline during the same period. This performance has sparked discussions in the market about the safe-haven properties of both assets.Eric Balchunas further stated that it is relatively rare for Bitcoin to strengthen while gold declines in the context of rising geopolitical uncertainty, prompting some investors to rethink the roles of traditional "safe-haven assets" and "digital gold." This raises the question of whether gold has failed to act as a safe haven in the current environment, or conversely, whether Bitcoin is gradually taking on some of the functions of a safe-haven asset. However, there remains a long-term divide in the market, with some analysts believing that gold is still the primary safe-haven asset during traditional crises, while Bitcoin's market performance tends to be more volatile.