bitfinex

The Bitfinex Alpha report indicates that Bitcoin's performance in January has reached its lowest level since 2022, with the market structure shifting from a distribution phase to a sustained downtrend. Currently, the $60,000 to $74,000 range is a key battleground for Bitcoin, where the market may consolidate, digest losses, and adjust positions before it can more clearly determine whether this range will serve as a rebound bottom or a brief pause before further declines.Despite the short-term momentum remaining bearish, the convergence of various capitulation signals suggests that Bitcoin is entering a stabilization phase.

Bitcoin has just recorded its largest weekly decline since the FTX collapse at the end of 2022, and the weekly RSI has risen to (or touched) levels above the pressure point following the FTX event. It is important to note that an RSI bottom does not necessarily mean that prices will bottom out simultaneously, but it does indicate that the current market is in a severely oversold condition.

As Bitcoin declines, Bitfinex's margin long positions have risen to approximately 77,100 BTC, reaching a nearly two-year high. This trend indicates that there is still significant leveraged buying in the market during the downturn. Additionally, over the past six months, the size of Bitfinex's margin longs has increased by about 64%, which is typically seen as a signal that large players or high-risk appetite funds are continuing to accumulate during periods of market pressure.However, historical experience shows that this indicator often expands during periods of market stress, but it does not necessarily mean that prices have bottomed out. Analysts believe that the current accumulation of margin longs reflects, on one hand, the market's behavior of buying on dips, and on the other hand, it may indicate that the market has not yet completed its final clearing, with short-term volatility risks still present.

According to on-chain monitoring data, the Bitfinex marked hot wallet address 0x7713...35EC transferred 400 XAUT to the Gate user deposit address 0x8e9E...73eB, equivalent to approximately $1.9664 million based on market value.On-chain data shows that in the past two days, this Gate deposit address has received XAUT multiple times from the same Bitfinex hot wallet, with single transactions concentrated in the range of 400 to 1000 coins. The related assets were then quickly transferred to the Gate hot wallet. Following a cumulative transfer of approximately $22.951 million on January 30, an additional over $6.8 million in XAUT has been transferred to Gate. From a market perspective, as the trading activity of real asset mapping products like gold tokens increases, Gate's transaction volume and liquidity in related categories continue to expand.According to CoinGlass data, Gate's XAUT (gold) spot trading volume remains among the top in the industry, and the platform's market influence in trading and liquidity support for gold-related digital assets continues to grow.

According to on-chain monitoring data from Arkham, on January 29, the Bitfinex marked hot wallet address 0x7713...35EC transferred 250 XAUT to the Gate user deposit address 0x2a0B...2F0f, equivalent to approximately $1.318 million based on market value.In the past 30 days, this Gate deposit address has received assets from Bitfinex multiple times, with a cumulative scale of approximately $22.951 million.From a market perspective, as the trading activity of real asset mapping products like gold tokens increases, Gate's transaction volume and liquidity in related categories continue to expand. According to CoinGlass data, the 24-hour trading volume of Gate XAUT (gold) spot has exceeded $92.57 million, ranking third globally.

Crypto KOL and former FTX community partner Benson Sun stated, "Bitfinex whales have significantly accelerated their accumulation recently. They are building positions of about 400 to 600 BTC daily, while the OTC desk has injected approximately 300 million USDT into Bitfinex recently. This marks the most aggressive accumulation record for Bitfinex since the market bottomed out on November 20 last year. Historically, such a pace of accumulation usually indicates two things: · The current market selling pressure is sufficient, allowing for large-scale accumulation without causing a significant impact on prices; · The capital side believes the market has entered a new phase—previously around the $88,000 mark, there was no accumulation of the same intensity. Although it is unclear what specific signals these funds are seeing, it is certain that they clearly believe that accumulating at the current price level is reasonable and cost-effective."

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, a newly created wallet received 25,001 ETH from Bitfinex, worth 73.17 million dollars.

Bitfinex's report indicates that Ethereum previously processed about 2.88 million transactions in a single day, setting a historical record, while the average transaction fee remained low, exhibiting an unusual characteristic of "high throughput, low fees," demonstrating that its long-term technological roadmap, especially Layer 2 scaling, is gradually showing results.As usage increases, the mainnet continues to operate smoothly, and the Ethereum mainnet is gradually transitioning to a neutral settlement and coordination layer. This modular architecture is closer to the layered logic of traditional financial infrastructure: the underlying layer focuses on security, certainty, and final settlement, while the upper layer takes on innovation and execution complexity. However, the report also warns that recent transaction volumes may include low-value activities such as address poisoning, particularly evident in stablecoin transactions, and caution is needed when measuring real economic usage solely by transaction volume.

According to Arkham data, at 16:15, 136.36 BTC (worth approximately 12.38 million USD) was transferred from one anonymous address (starting with 328YZ1jF...) to another anonymous address (starting with 35shGJQ...). Subsequently, that address transferred a portion of the BTC (0.05135111 BTC) to Bitfinex.

Bitfinex Alpha report indicates: Bitcoin, driven by strong spot demand, briefly broke through the resistance level of $94,000 to $95,000, reaching an intraday high of $97,850, marking the highest level in over two months. This surge triggered a significant short squeeze, with daily short covering reaching the highest record in nearly 100 days, and the open interest also returned to normal, as leveraged longs took profits and shorts were forced to exit.Since Bitcoin returned to its opening price in 2025 and has risen over 21% from recent lows, the market structure has significantly improved, even though the price has retraced about 6% from its peak. This breakout, even if only temporary, is still constructive, reflecting reduced leverage pressure and improved market conditions, provided that spot demand continues to exist. Bitcoin is entering a densely supplied area dominated by long-term holders (LTH), roughly between $93,000 and $110,000, where previous rebound attempts have been blocked.Although long-term holders remain net sellers, their selling pace has significantly slowed, with realized profits dropping from over 100,000 Bitcoins at the cycle peak to about 12,800 Bitcoins per week. This slowdown, combined with seasonal factors in the first quarter and a stronger order flow dynamic than previous rebounds, increases the likelihood of Bitcoin absorbing the supply above. To sustain a breakout in this area, further alleviation of selling pressure from long-term holders is needed, paving the way for a more durable rebound and a potential retest of historical highs.

The Bitfinex Alpha report indicates that after Bitcoin rebounded from a low of nearly $80,800 in late November, it continues to test the key resistance zone of $93,500 to $95,000, with short-term price movements still constrained by factors such as inconsistent ETF fund flows.Currently, Bitcoin is entering a dense supply zone formed by buyers at recent highs, with a cost basis between $92,100 and $117,400. As the price returns to this area, holders looking to break even may increase selling pressure, creating significant resistance above or facing "profit-taking pressure," which may keep the market in a range-bound oscillation. The derivatives market reflects a cautiously optimistic sentiment, characterized by a coexistence of long-term bullish positions and short-term bearish hedges.

According to crypto analyst CW, Bitfinex whale position data shows that the platform's Bitcoin long positions amount to approximately 72,000 coins, while short positions are only 286 coins.CW noted that a similar situation occurred last April when Bitcoin was at the year's bottom range of $74,000. Therefore, CW believes that the current position distribution indicates that Bitfinex whales are optimistic about the market outlook.

According to DeFiLlama data, the top 3 trading platforms with the highest net inflow of funds in the past 24 hours are Binance ($508 million), Bitget ($90.72 million), and Bitfinex ($47.46 million).

The Bitfinex Alpha report indicates that after experiencing a lack of liquidity and declining volatility over the past month, Bitcoin has begun to show signs of a slight reversal and stabilization at the beginning of 2026, currently oscillating within a narrow range of $85,000 to $94,000.However, the previously ETF-driven sell-off has significantly slowed down before the end of last year, suggesting that "de-risking" may have come to an end. Strategy has been increasing its Bitcoin holdings for several consecutive weeks, and the liquidity situation in the crypto market is expected to improve at the beginning of 2026.

Bitfinex analysts indicate that if American companies enter Venezuela to develop its vast oil reserves, it could lower energy prices in the medium to long term, thereby improving the profitability of Bitcoin miners.The analysis points out that cheaper and more abundant energy supplies are expected to enhance miners' profit margins and may drive a new round of mining expansion, especially in areas where long-term power contracts can be secured. Bitfinex believes that even a small portion of Venezuela's 30.3 billion barrels of oil reserves could have a substantial impact on the energy market, providing relief to miners currently pressured by the decline in Bitcoin prices, rising mining difficulty, and increasing electricity costs.However, the analysis also notes that the substantial recovery of Venezuela's oil production capacity will still take years, with progress depending on political transitions and sanctions policy arrangements. Overall, changes in energy are still a secondary factor affecting the crypto market, with price trends more likely to be driven by macro risk appetite and cross-asset allocation.

The Bitfinex Alpha report indicates that after experiencing a lack of liquidity and declining volatility over the past month, Bitcoin has begun to show signs of a slight reversal and stabilization since the beginning of 2026, currently oscillating within a narrow range of $85,000 to $94,000.However, the previous ETF-driven sell-off has significantly slowed down before the end of last year, suggesting that "de-risking" may have come to an end. Strategy has been increasing its Bitcoin holdings for several weeks, and the liquidity situation in the crypto market is expected to improve in early 2026.

According to The Block, Ilya Lichtenstein, who admitted to participating in the attack on the cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex, stated that he will be released early and thanked President Donald Trump for the criminal justice reform bill passed in 2018.In 2024, Ilya Lichtenstein was sentenced to five years in prison for his involvement in the 2016 Bitfinex hack, with charges including conspiracy to commit money laundering and conspiracy to defraud the U.S. government. Shortly thereafter, his wife Heather Morgan was also sentenced, but prosecutors indicated that her role in the money laundering scheme was less significant.

The hacker Ilya Lichtenstein from the Bitfinex Bitcoin theft case announced on the X platform that he has been released early, attributing this to the First Step Act signed by President Trump in 2018, which allows prisoners to earn sentence reductions by participating in rehabilitation programs.It is reported that Lichtenstein was sentenced to 5 years in prison in November 2024 for assisting in the laundering of nearly 120,000 bitcoins (worth about $4.5 billion at the time of the crime), while his wife Heather Morgan (online alias Razzlekhan) was sentenced to 18 months for aiding and abetting the crime and was released in October 2025.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, in the past 24 hours, a certain whale (bc1pck...nw34) withdrew 800 BTC from Bitfinex, worth 70.9 million USD. Currently, this whale holds 1000 BTC, valued at 89.04 million USD, which has been accumulated over the past 6 days.

CoinDesk posted on the X platform that Bitfinex analysts pointed out that driven by institutional adoption and new products for BTC, ETH, and other tokens, the assets under management of cryptocurrency ETFs could double by the end of 2026, reaching $400 billion.