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TD Cowen: The U.S. Congress is close to permanently banning the Federal Reserve from issuing CBDC

Investment bank TD Cowen stated that the U.S. Congress may be close to passing legislation to permanently prohibit the Federal Reserve from issuing a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). This move could benefit stablecoin issuers but may also introduce new complexities for cryptocurrency market structure legislation.Last week, U.S. Senator Ted Cruz proposed an amendment in the housing bill "21st Century ROAD to Housing Act," calling for a permanent ban on the Federal Reserve issuing CBDC. The amendment aims to convert the currently effective temporary ban, which lasts until 2030, into a permanent provision. The housing bill is expected to be submitted for a Senate vote as early as this week.Jaret Seiberg, Managing Director of TD Cowen's Washington research department, indicated that the housing bill ultimately submitted for the president's signature is likely to include this ban, and the possibility of a permanent ban is higher than that of a temporary one. Seiberg pointed out that the amendment is primarily aimed at solidifying the current policy stance.The Federal Reserve has repeatedly stated that it will not issue a digital dollar without explicit authorization from Congress. Meanwhile, several U.S. lawmakers have recently co-signed a letter to congressional leadership, urging for a permanent ban on CBDC. Congressman Ralph Norman stated that unlike cash, CBDC could allow the government to track transactions and monitor individual spending behavior, thus a permanent ban is necessary to protect the privacy and freedom of Americans.It is noteworthy that the U.S. House of Representatives passed the "Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act" last year, which prohibits the Federal Reserve from directly issuing CBDC to individuals. Cruz has also been actively pushing for similar legislation in the Senate.

Gate CBO Kevin Lee: Oil prices move first, inflation follows, and the central bank's path is the ultimate variable

Gate CBO Kevin Lee recently published an article titled "War, War Never Changes... How Will the Macro Market Move?" regarding the recent situation in the Middle East. He pointed out that geopolitical conflicts themselves do not alter the fundamental operating logic of the market; what truly determines the medium-term direction of assets is the impact of the prolonged conflict on the inflation path and changes in central bank policy orientation.Kevin stated that within hours to days after the outbreak of conflict, crude oil typically experiences significant volatility first, as the market prices in the tail risk of supply disruptions; gold then activates, serving both as a safe haven and an inflation hedge; the stock market faces short-term pressure, with VIX rising rapidly and significant sector divergence.As the situation progresses from several days to two weeks, if energy supply is not continuously damaged, oil prices and risk premiums often retrace, and stocks and crypto assets rebound with the recovery of risk sentiment; however, if high oil prices persist for an extended period, inflation expectations will be systematically elevated, shifting the asset pricing logic from a trading perspective to a macro perspective.The article further emphasizes that what truly changes the trend is not the market reaction on the day of the conflict but the inflation data and policy expectations that gradually emerge weeks later. Over a longer cycle, the market will reprice around the evolution path of inflation, the credibility of monetary policy, and the economic growth outlook. Historical experience repeatedly proves that in high-uncertainty environments, emotional decision-making often comes at a high cost; understanding the transmission sequence and respecting cyclical patterns are key to navigating volatility.

Rumors of Lagarde's early departure raise concerns about the ECB successor and the prospects of the digital euro

According to market news, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is considering stepping down before her term ends in October 2027, so that French President Macron and German Chancellor Merz can reach an agreement on her successor before the French elections in April 2027.A spokesperson for the European Central Bank later responded that Lagarde is "fully focused on her mission and has not made any decisions regarding the end of her term." Lagarde's potential early departure comes at a critical time for the advancement of the digital euro by the European Central Bank. Under her leadership, the European Central Bank has been continuously advancing the preparations for the digital euro and has repeatedly emphasized the need to manage the risks of private digital currencies such as stablecoins within the framework of the EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation.Lagarde herself has long held a critical stance towards cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, describing them as "highly speculative," "worthless," and "not backed by any underlying assets." If there is a change in the leadership of the European Central Bank, it could affect the institution's communication focus and priorities regarding the digital euro, stablecoin regulation, and crypto-related payment arrangements, although the overall regulatory direction has already been established at the EU level.
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