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Greeks.live posted on social media that this week marks the Christmas holiday, and the U.S. stock market will be closed on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. During this period, both institutional and retail investors in Europe and the U.S. typically refrain from trading, a trend that usually continues until after New Year's Day. This Friday (26th) is the annual settlement date, and currently, over 50% of the total options positions are awaiting expiration.Most institutions have chosen to roll over their positions early. Since last week, the implied volatility (IV) for major expiration dates has begun to decline significantly, while the proportion of block trades has increased.With the combined effects of declining volatility, the Christmas trading period, and year-end rollovers, the implied volatility for Bitcoin across major expiration dates has dropped by over 5% in the past month, with mid-term IV falling by more than 10%. Ethereum's IV has decreased even more.These data collectively indicate a pessimistic market outlook, with consensus pointing towards low volatility being maintained over the next two weeks. The market is likely to remain subdued over the next half month and may gradually decline.

Greeks.Live researcher Adam posted on social media that at the recently concluded Federal Reserve meeting, a 25 basis point rate cut was expected, and the Fed announced it would restart the purchase of $40 billion in short-term U.S. Treasury bills (T-bills). The dovish stance can effectively supplement the liquidity of the financial system, which undoubtedly is a clear positive for the market.However, it is too early to mention that QE will restart the bull market. With Christmas and year-end settlements approaching, this time of year has historically been the period of lowest liquidity in the crypto market, with reduced market activity and limited momentum for a bull market restart.From the cryptocurrency options data, there is currently over 50% of the options positions accumulated for the end of December, with BTC's maximum pain point at the $100,000 integer level and ETH's maximum pain point at $3,200. The implied volatility for the main expiration this month is showing a downward trend, and the market's expectations for volatility this month are gradually decreasing.In summary, the crypto market is currently quite weak, with poor liquidity at the end of the year and a gloomy market sentiment. A slow decline is the most mainstream view in the options market, but at the same time, one should also be wary of sudden positive news that could lead to a reversal.

Greeks.live researcher Adam posted on social media, "In the third quarter, we observed that the options market was clearly optimistic about the fourth quarter. Even during the late August when Bitcoin prices continued to decline, the open interest for Q4 options remained bullish. We referred to it as the Q4 rally or Christmas rally at that time; however, the crash on October 11 and the continued decline in November have shattered the previous market structure. In the current market context, the voices calling for new highs in the fourth quarter have completely disappeared, and a pessimistic atmosphere is spreading.Although this week RV, IV, and 25D Skew have shown a downward trend, the market's panic has not dissipated, and the mid to long-term options data for the end of the year and into next year still points to bearishness. With the monthly expiration approaching, there has been significant price volatility this month, leading to strong demand from whales for rolling positions.From the overall data, a short-term bottom has formed, and the options market's preference for the recent continuous decline has weakened, indicating a larger expectation for short-term market fluctuations. However, the market in the last month of this year remains dangerous, and volatility expectations are still high."

Greeks.live researcher Adam posted that the overall market sentiment remains bearish, with a divergence on whether a bottom has been formed. Traders are closely watching the key support levels of ETH 2800 to 2900 and BTC 90,000. The core divergence lies in whether the current levels have already reached the bottom.

ChainCatcher message, Greeks.live macro researcher Adam released a brief stating that the Greeks.live English community shows a clear bullish stance on BTC, with strong confidence in the support level of $122,000. Most traders are actively selling put options, expecting the price to reach a new all-time high.In addition, the ETH market is facing significant systemic risks due to staking dynamics. The withdrawal queue has exceeded $10 billion, with a waiting time of over 41 days, while the liquidity supply on exchanges has dropped to a historical low of 2.83 million ETH. Staking ETH ETFs face potential liquidity mismatches between traditional financial settlement cycles and ETH withdrawal timeframes. Meanwhile, DATCO removes over 400,000 ETH from circulation each month, causing severe scarcity, which may drive the actual volatility of ETH higher relative to BTC.

ChainCatcher news, Greeks.live macro researcher Adam tweeted that the call options with a strike price of $120,000 to $140,000 remain the most concentrated contracts, with the $120,000 key level gathering the highest density of Bitcoin positions. Major participants are focusing on out-of-the-money call options and strike prices close to recent historical highs.Since September, block trades have been unusually active, primarily concentrated in monthly and weekly contracts. Entering October, out-of-the-money options expiring in late October have begun to attract attention. In terms of market maker positions, positions below $120,000 are relatively scarce, and the overall market maker gamma level remains low, indicating limited impact from small price fluctuations. However, if Bitcoin falls below $110,000, market makers will need to increase short positions to reduce risk exposure; conversely, if new highs are reached, they will need to buy Bitcoin to hedge risk.

ChainCatcher news, Greeks.live macro researcher Adam posted on the X platform that ETH briefly fell below $4000 during a significant drop, with multiple technical support levels being breached.After the plunge, the implied volatility of major contracts remained the same as before, but the skew significantly favored put options, with put contract prices noticeably higher than call options, indicating a sharp increase in market concerns about downside risks. There was no significant increase in options trading volume, and market makers' positions entered the gamma amplification range, with some market makers having bought put options to hedge risks. Adam pointed out that if the $4000 level is lost, the options market may face a bear market pricing reassessment; BTC's trend is relatively more stable, but ETH's technical indicators are more critical.

ChainCatcher message, Greeks.live macro researcher Adam released a Chinese community briefing, which pointed out: there is a clear division in the group regarding the market direction, with the bears expecting ETH to potentially drop below $4000 and BTC to test the bottom again, while the bulls still hope this is the last pin before the bull market takes off.Traders are generally focused on the rise in options IV and the situation of open interest liquidation, with market trading volume significantly reduced.

ChainCatcher news, Greek.live macro researcher Adam posted on the X platform that the market is clearly in a downtrend, with BTC short-term IV rising to 40% and ETH short-term IV rising to 70%. The increase in short-term IV indicates a rise in market expectations for volatility this week.The decline of crypto-related stocks in the U.S. stock market, especially the MicroStrategy series stocks, is a catalyst for this downturn. September has historically been a month of weaker capital, while the last quarter tends to see more abundant funds. Today's volume of bearish options trades is also rapidly increasing, totaling $1.17 billion, accounting for 30% of the total trading volume for the day, with a defensive mindset dominating the mainstream.

ChainCatcher message, according to Greeks.Live analyst Adam's post on social media, "This week has relatively more macro data, with the most important macro data being the CPI on Tuesday. A noteworthy event is the FOMC meeting on Friday. The recent signals of de-escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict could have an impact on the global economy if the meeting yields substantial results.The implied volatility for BTC in the short to medium term has generally fallen to above 30%, indicating lower short-term volatility expectations. For ETH, the major terms are mainly around 65% to 70%, more than double that of BTC, especially since ETH surged to $4300 over the weekend, with short-term IV exceeding 70%."

ChainCatcher news, Greeks.live released a Chinese research report on July 18 regarding the options expiration data, with 41,000 BTC options and 240,000 ETH options expiring, the maximum pain point for BTC at $114,000 and for ETH at $2,950.The ETH price breaking through $3,650 has led to a rebound in altcoins, while BTC remains volatile around the historical high of $120,000. This week, about $6 billion in options are set to expire, accounting for over 10% of the total open interest. BTC implied volatility remains at 40%, while ETH implied volatility has risen to 70%. Recently, there have been frequent large bullish trades, and FOMO sentiment has emerged in the options market.

ChainCatcher message, Greeks.live macro researcher Adam released a Chinese community briefing stating, "The group shows a strong bullish sentiment towards Ethereum, with a general belief that Ethereum has completed its correction and will continue to rise, focusing on key price levels such as $3300 and $3400. Traders discussed the large bullish options positions of 'Easy Marshal' and deleveraging operations, paying close attention to his market judgment."

According to ChainCatcher news and data from Greeks.live, 78,000 BTC options and 461,000 ETH options are about to expire, with notional values of $7.18 billion and $820 million, respectively. As the crypto market rebounds strongly, the volatility risk premium (VRP) has ended a month of negative values and returned to positive territory, reflecting improved market sentiment. Trump's softened stance in the trade war has boosted confidence, but long-term uncertainty remains. Although bearish options are relatively high this month, there has been a noticeable increase in bullish options for contracts expiring in June, indicating that investors are more optimistic about future trends.

ChainCatcher news, Greeks.live macro analyst Adam posted that today's largest options block trade was the purchase of BTC put options expiring on April 25, 2025, with a strike price of $60,000, totaling over 1,000 BTC, with a nominal value of nearly $100 million. This deep out-of-the-money position serves as a low-cost extreme risk hedge or high-leverage speculation, requiring a drop of over 30% from the current situation to be profitable.Currently, the main block trades are still focused on establishing and adjusting positions. This month, institutions have significantly strengthened their layout for put options, indicating that large players are pessimistic about this month's market, and the number of deep out-of-the-money protective positions has noticeably increased.

ChainCatcher news, Greeks . Live macro researcher Adam posted on the X platform that the most noteworthy event this week is the cryptocurrency summit to be held in the U.S. on March 7, where every move of Trump greatly influences the cryptocurrency market. This week is a macro big week, with impactful news almost every day. This Friday, in addition to the crypto summit, there are two significant data points: the unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls, which are very worth paying attention to. Moreover, the U.S. is about to switch to daylight saving time, making it more convenient to monitor the market. On Tuesday, Trump's tariff policy on the U.S. and Canada takes effect, and there are also important economic events on other days, creating rare trading opportunities driven by events.Cryptocurrency market outlook: The cryptocurrency market rebounded significantly over the weekend, with a single tweet from Trump reversing the prolonged bearish sentiment in the crypto market. Bitcoin has returned to the fluctuation zone of $94,000, and the sudden change in market conditions caught participants off guard, shifting market sentiment from very pessimistic to very optimistic. In terms of options, the volatile market has driven a rebound in implied volatility (IV) across all maturities, with the at-the-money IV for the current month rebounding to 55%, and short-term IV soaring to 70%. The intense market movements and the uncertainty brought by multiple economic events this week will likely keep the IV at a relatively high level, but buying options remains very cost-effective.Regarding the cryptocurrency interest rate market, the Bitfinex interest rate market has been relatively stable recently, and suitable interest rate orders can be actively executed, especially during market movements, which are worth paying special attention to.

ChainCatcher news, Greeks.Live macro researcher Adam posted an English community briefing on the X platform, stating that after Bitcoin plummeted from $85,000 to $78,000 in a short period, causing significant losses, group members generally hold a bearish outlook.Most traders are focusing on whether $82,000 can hold as support on the weekly chart, with many believing there is a possibility of further decline to the $72,000 area. The recent price action has been described as "crazy" and "violent," with traders losing a significant portion of their portfolios, and some even experiencing losses of 70%.Many traders are considering rolling over positions and selling some call options to seek recovery while maintaining a slightly positive delta exposure to cope with potential upward movements. The general consensus is that consolidation and base-building in the coming week will be a positive signal, and if momentum recovers, some anticipate a possible mean reversion back to the $86,000-$89,000 range.

ChainCatcher message, Greeks.live macro researcher Adam released an English community briefing, pointing out that after experiencing significant losses, community sentiment seems generally bearish, with traders closely watching the $82,000 level as a key support. There are some divergences within the community, with a minority of members believing that a rise may occur in the coming months, but the recent sharp price fluctuation from $95,000 to $78,000 has kept most traders cautious. After the sudden sell-off, most traders are in recovery mode, and due to margin restrictions, many have had to realize losses rather than roll over positions.

ChainCatcher news, according to the daily briefing from the Greeks.Live English community, traders are currently focusing on $75,000 and the $67,000-$70,000 range as potential support zones. While there are views that the price may rebound to the $92,000-$94,000 range, most people are cautious about establishing new positions until clear signals appear.Bitcoin's price plummeted from $94,000-$96,000 to around $80,000 within a week, causing significant losses for traders. Some users reported account drawdowns of up to 70%, stating that "7 months of profits have vanished."This sell-off has been described as a loss of momentum, with no clear catalyst. It is noteworthy that during the decline, the perpetual contract funding rate remained positive, which is different from the situation when the market typically bottoms out.

ChainCatcher news, Greeks.live macro researcher Adam stated that today 59,000 BTC options will expire, with a put/call ratio of 0.7, and the maximum pain point at $96,000, with a nominal value of $4.66 billion. At the same time, 529,000 ETH options will also expire, with a put/call ratio of 0.52, a maximum pain point of $3,000, and a nominal value of $1.12 billion.Analysis shows that due to the sharp decline in U.S. stocks and multiple security incidents, the crypto market is on the brink of collapse this week, with mainstream coins leading the decline. Market panic is spreading, and implied volatility (IV) has surged significantly, with BTC's short-term volatility once climbing to 90%, and ETH's short-term volatility even exceeding 100%.The report pointed out that large options traders have been continuously selling medium- to short-term call options over the past month, confirming institutions' previous prediction that February would be a "dead time with no market activity," as the market indeed shows signs of lacking hotspots and capital.

ChainCatcher news, Greeks.live posted on social media that traders view $82,000 as a key support level for Bitcoin, which must be maintained to sustain the trend on higher time frames.Community members are very concerned about the ongoing decline, with many discussing the rapid 17% drop within three days and debating whether the recent sell-off is under control or signals a broader market shift.Several traders believe that after this pullback, Bitcoin's price action may become choppy and could retest $88,000 before deciding on further direction.