prediction

According to Hong Kong Radio, the Hong Kong government has decided to stop promoting basketball gambling projects. The Secretary for Home Affairs and Youth Affairs, Mak Mei-juan, stated in an interview with this station that the information collected by the authorities shows that the "prediction market" has developed rapidly in recent years, with monthly trading volume increasing from less than $100 million two years ago to over $13 billion last year, of which nearly 40% of the transactions are related to sports. The authorities are concerned that if new gambling projects are promoted at this time, it will lead to greater public concern and even participation in illegal gambling in the "prediction market." Therefore, it is believed that research should be conducted first before deciding on the next steps, and the promotion of new gambling projects should be halted for now.Mak Mei-juan stated that the existing regulated gambling projects have established a more mature monitoring and management system, which can help control risks. However, due to the uncertainty of the "prediction market," as a responsible government, there is a need to conduct research to understand the impact of the "prediction market" and its prevalence in Hong Kong. She also mentioned that the government has always maintained close contact with the Hong Kong Jockey Club, as the club has a rigorous monitoring system to oversee illegal gambling situations, and there are experts specifically targeting the fight against illegal gambling. The government will cooperate with the Jockey Club to obtain professional advice, allowing the authorities to implement measures specifically aimed at illegal gambling.Mak Mei-juan reiterated that the government's consistent policy is not to encourage gambling, and betting on sports projects in the "prediction market" is considered illegal gambling. The authorities will strengthen public education to help citizens understand the harms of gambling and refrain from participating in illegal gambling.

As the first centralized exchange (CEX) to connect with Polymarket, Gate's data shows that in the prediction event "How will the Federal Reserve's April interest rate decision change?", the market estimates the probability of interest rates remaining unchanged at a high of 99%. Currently, the overall sentiment in the macro market is cautious, with most participants expecting to maintain a wait-and-see stance in this month's meeting, awaiting more economic data guidance. Keeping interest rates unchanged helps stabilize market liquidity and risk appetite, and various assets, including stock indices and commodities, are expected to attract investor interest. Gate has a comprehensive layout of traditional asset categories, covering the widest range in the network.In addition, users can directly access the prediction market through the Gate App, entering the Polymarket page from the platform's homepage Alpha and using USDT in their exchange account to participate in event predictions. This integration marks a key step for Gate in the fusion of the crypto trading ecosystem and prediction markets, also bringing users a more open and diverse market participation experience.

According to Decrypt, Charles Schwab President and CEO Rick Wurster stated that the company may offer prediction market services in the future, but will focus on financial event-related contracts such as inflation, avoiding themes like pop culture, politics, and sports.Previously, Charles Schwab announced that it would launch Bitcoin and Ethereum trading services in the coming weeks, with a transaction fee rate of 0.75%. The company also plans to gradually expand its cryptocurrency business, including opening digital asset deposit and withdrawal functions, and increasing the range of supported tokens.

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit heard oral arguments from lawyers representing the prediction market platform Kalshi and Nevada authorities regarding Nevada's ban on the platform's event contracts. This appeal stems from a lower court ruling that prohibited Kalshi from offering certain event-based contracts in Nevada based on the claim that Kalshi requires a license.The appellate court judges responsible for Thursday's oral arguments and Kalshi's lawyers acknowledged that there have been several state-level enforcement actions against Kalshi and other prediction market platforms, including criminal charges filed in Arizona. However, a federal court last week blocked Arizona authorities from enforcing the state's gambling laws against Kalshi's event contracts."I believe existing case law does indicate that what we want to avoid here is state courts and federal courts simultaneously considering the exact same issue and potentially reaching different conclusions," said Colleen Sinzdak, representing Kalshi.The core argument of Kalshi's debate is that the platform's event contracts fall under "swap" transactions and should be regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, rather than state gambling regulators. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig supported this position in the case involving Crypto.com's prediction market and Nevada authorities.Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal predicted that this case may be appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court. "The questions in the oral arguments are not a reliable signal of the court's leanings; nonetheless, I stand by my long-standing prediction that the Supreme Court will rule on whether sports contracts on designated contract markets fall under the exclusive jurisdiction of the CFTC as swap transactions."

According to Cointelegraph, Michael Selig, the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), stated that the agency is working to provide clarity for the crypto space, including tokenized collateral and stablecoins, while also developing clear guidelines for prediction markets.

Sport315 announced that it has officially become a co-organizer of the "Crypto 2026: From Cryptocurrency to Smart Economy" forum, jointly hosted by ChainCatcher and RootData.It is reported that the forum will be held on April 19, 2026, from 14:00 to 18:00 at The Executive Centre in Hong Kong. At that time, Sport315 will share on-site practical experiences of the integration of SportFi and the smart economy in the era of AI Agents.It is reported that Sport315 is positioned as a blockchain-based SportFi infrastructure, aimed at putting sports predictions and value mechanisms on-chain, allowing users' every judgment of game results to be converted into recordable and settleable on-chain asset behaviors.

Cryptocurrency exchange Crypto.com has signed a final agreement with High Roller Technologies, planning to enter the field by integrating prediction market business.Related event contracts will be offered through the exchange CDNA, which is already registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the United States, targeting U.S. users, and will compete with platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.

Totalis announced the completion of a $500,000 seed round financing on platform X, with participation from Y Combinator.Totalis is the first company to receive investment from Y Combinator entirely in the form of USDC, with the funds settled through the Solana network and hosted by Ramp. Totalis positions itself as the core derivatives layer of the prediction market, allowing users to build multi-colored combinations across categories, markets, and venues, covering geopolitical, cryptocurrency, and sports assets, aimed at enhancing capital efficiency in trading and market-making.According to Y Combinator CEO Garry Tan, YC will make investment payments in stablecoins in the future, and this new financial track of revolution will not be conducted through ACH or wire transfers.

As Robinhood accelerates its layout in the prediction market, it has proactively excluded certain contract products due to concerns that they may foster market manipulation and insider trading risks. Robinhood UK President Jordan Sinclair stated that the company is highly attentive to market abuse issues and will not offer all prediction markets or event contracts to users, but will selectively launch products that are more suitable for customers.Recently, several "precise betting" incidents have raised regulatory concerns. For example, there were unusually large bets placed on Polymarket before U.S. actions against Iran; Israeli regulators have also sued two individuals who used confidential information to place bets. Additionally, "mention markets" (such as words that will appear in a speech being bet on) have been explicitly excluded from Robinhood's product range due to their susceptibility to manipulation.Currently, Robinhood primarily provides compliant prediction market services through partnerships with Kalshi and ForecastEx, prioritizing regulated platforms to reduce information abuse and cross-border compliance risks. In contrast, the less regulated Polymarket allows users to trade through cryptocurrency wallets with relatively loose identity verification.Robinhood previously anticipated that prediction markets would become an important growth engine, with CEO Vlad Tenev stating that this business could become one of the fastest-growing segments by 2025, potentially driving the formation of a trillion-dollar annual trading scale in the future.

According to the WSJ, just hours after President Trump suddenly announced a suspension of attacks on Iran last month, the White House warned staff not to abuse their power to place bets in prediction markets at the right moment. According to informed sources, the Office of Management and Budget issued this warning on March 23.Earlier that day, Trump announced the decision to suspend airstrikes via Truth Social. About 15 minutes before the sudden policy shift, there was a wave of mysterious trading activity in the futures market, with Dow Jones market data showing that contracts worth over $760 million in oil futures changed hands in less than two minutes.Recently, three accounts on the Polymarket platform profited over $600,000 by accurately predicting the timing of this week's ceasefire in Iran. Critics of Trump, including many Democrats, immediately inferred that someone had profited from having advance knowledge of the policy shift.The White House confirmed the authenticity of this warning, with Trump's spokesperson Engel stating, "The only special interest that can guide President Trump's decision-making is the best interest of the American people."

Binance announces the launch of a prediction market, a new feature that allows users to participate in probability-based markets through integration with third-party platforms from the Binance app. When the Binance wallet goes live, it will integrate market access provided by Predict.fun, a leading on-chain prediction market provider on the BNB Smart Chain (BSC).Prediction markets allow participants to bet on future outcomes in areas such as sports, economics, world events, culture, and cryptocurrency. Each outcome (yes or no) is represented by shares priced between $0.01 and $0.99, reflecting the collective belief of participants in the likelihood of the outcome— for example, in a sufficiently deep market, a share priced at $0.80 indicates an 80% probability of that outcome occurring. When the market settles, shares for the correct outcome will pay $1.In the Binance app, go to the "Markets" tab. Click on the "Prediction" tab (available only in supported regions). Select a category to browse available markets that provide real-time probability pricing.

According to CoinDesk, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Department of Justice jointly filed a motion in federal court on Tuesday evening, seeking to block Arizona from enforcing state gambling laws against the prediction market operator Kalshi. The two departments argue that the contracts offered by Kalshi, which are linked to real-world events such as sports events and elections, essentially fall under financial derivatives (swaps) and should be governed by the Commodity Exchange Act and federal regulatory framework, rather than state gambling regulations.Arizona had previously filed criminal charges against Kalshi, with a court date set for April 13. Currently, there are conflicting rulings from courts across the country—while the Third Circuit Court of Appeals in New Jersey has leaned towards supporting the federal regulatory stance, other regional courts have taken an open attitude towards the state’s claims.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the U.S. Department of Justice submitted documents to a federal court on Tuesday, requesting to block Arizona from applying its gambling laws to the prediction market operator Kalshi.Federal regulators argue that contracts linked to sports events, elections, and other real-world events fall under a financial derivative known as "swaps," which should be subject to federal regulation under the Commodity Exchange Act, rather than governed by state gambling laws. Arizona had previously filed criminal charges against Kalshi under state gambling laws, with a hearing scheduled for April 13.The federal appeals court in New Jersey had previously ruled in favor of Kalshi, determining that its sports contracts are presumed legal under federal law in the absence of CFTC intervention, but courts in other jurisdictions have allowed state-level enforcement actions to proceed. If the court ultimately accepts the CFTC's position, prediction markets could operate nationwide under a unified federal framework.

According to The Block, Fox Corporation has announced a data partnership with the prediction market platform Kalshi, with Kalshi's real-time data to be integrated into Fox News, Fox Business Network, Fox Weather, and the streaming platform Fox One, excluding Fox Sports for now, but Kalshi indicated that it may be included in the future. Previously, Kalshi had reached similar partnerships with CNN and CNBC.

The prediction market Polymarket collected approximately $7.1 million in trading fees in the first week of the second quarter, becoming one of the most profitable protocols in DeFi. If this pace continues, its annual trading fee revenue could reach about $365 million, potentially capturing 96.8% of the trading fee share in on-chain prediction markets.Analysis suggests that this growth stems from the pricing reform on March 30, maintaining daily trading fee levels at around $1 million, with trading activity remaining high. According to DeFiLlama data, Polymarket's total value locked (TVL) has reached $432 million, nearing the peak during the 2024 U.S. presidential election.In terms of mainstream partnerships, the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) completed a $600 million cash investment on March 27, as part of a larger $2 billion commitment, to distribute Polymarket's event-driven data to institutional clients. The platform also replaced the USDC.e collateral on Polygon with a brand new 1:1 USDC-backed token, Polymarket USD, as a trading collateral asset.Despite rapid revenue growth, regulatory risks remain. Some U.S. states, as well as countries or regions like Hungary, Portugal, and Argentina, have imposed restrictions or bans on prediction markets, citing that Polymarket is viewed as an unlicensed gambling platform.

According to The Block, the U.S. Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that Kalshi's provision of sports-related event contracts in New Jersey is not subject to state gambling regulations, confirming the priority of federal oversight.The court ruled 2-1 that trading on designated contract markets (DCM) regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) falls under federal exclusive jurisdiction, and New Jersey does not have the authority to block the provision of related products.This case originated from Kalshi's lawsuit after receiving "cease and desist" orders from multiple states. New Jersey claimed that it violated state gambling laws, but the court found that the Commodity Exchange Act clearly grants the CFTC exclusive regulatory authority over related trading. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour called the ruling a "significant victory" and stated that prediction markets offer greater transparency and fairness.

Mike Selig, the chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, stated on the X platform that U.S. federal law clearly stipulates that the derivatives market is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.Whether it's sports, politics, or oil prices, under the federal regulatory framework, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has clear jurisdiction to regulate prediction markets and is obligated to uphold the regulations.

The first prediction market liquidity infrastructure on the BSC chain that combines elements of fortune cookies has officially launched on the Fortune website. As a new generation Web3 financial protocol, Fortune is committed to solving the long-standing issues of liquidity fragmentation, low pricing efficiency, and high participation thresholds in prediction markets through an AI-driven liquidity engine.The core features launched alongside the website include:Voting Council: A community-driven event listing mechanism that ensures market diversity and fairnessDaily Check-in: Low-threshold participation to continuously accumulate F points and secure early ecosystem incentivesFortune Node NFT: A core equity asset that allows holders to enjoy point bonuses and protocol dividendsFortune also revealed that its core prediction market trading function will officially launch on April 20, bringing users a brand new prediction and trading experience.

Polymarket has delisted a prediction market involving the fate of a missing American pilot, stating that the content violates the platform's "integrity standards" and should not have been launched, and is reviewing its internal auditing processes. The incident has sparked widespread controversy, as the market had bets on "whether they will be rescued," with over 60% of users betting that they would not be rescued in the short term.It is reported that U.S. Congressman Seth Moulton has publicly criticized such trades as "disgusting," questioning the speculation on the fate of potential casualties. He stated, "American soldiers could be your neighbors, friends, or family, yet some are betting on whether they will be rescued."Additionally, the Polymarket platform has not specified the exact terms of the violations, raising questions about the transparency of the rules. Meanwhile, the prediction market is also facing heightened concerns over "insider trading," with reports that some traders had made precise bets for profit before sensitive military events. On the regulatory side, several U.S. lawmakers have called for stronger restrictions on trading in prediction markets using non-public information.