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After Kalshi filed an appeal, the compliance dispute in the prediction market may be handed over to the U.S. Supreme Court

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit heard oral arguments from lawyers representing the prediction market platform Kalshi and Nevada authorities regarding Nevada's ban on the platform's event contracts. This appeal stems from a lower court ruling that prohibited Kalshi from offering certain event-based contracts in Nevada based on the claim that Kalshi requires a license.The appellate court judges responsible for Thursday's oral arguments and Kalshi's lawyers acknowledged that there have been several state-level enforcement actions against Kalshi and other prediction market platforms, including criminal charges filed in Arizona. However, a federal court last week blocked Arizona authorities from enforcing the state's gambling laws against Kalshi's event contracts."I believe existing case law does indicate that what we want to avoid here is state courts and federal courts simultaneously considering the exact same issue and potentially reaching different conclusions," said Colleen Sinzdak, representing Kalshi.The core argument of Kalshi's debate is that the platform's event contracts fall under "swap" transactions and should be regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, rather than state gambling regulators. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig supported this position in the case involving Crypto.com's prediction market and Nevada authorities.Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal predicted that this case may be appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court. "The questions in the oral arguments are not a reliable signal of the court's leanings; nonetheless, I stand by my long-standing prediction that the Supreme Court will rule on whether sports contracts on designated contract markets fall under the exclusive jurisdiction of the CFTC as swap transactions."

J.P. Morgan: Negotiations on the CLARITY Act have entered the final stage, with disputes narrowed down to 2-3 core issues

JPMorgan analysts have stated that negotiations for the U.S. "Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act" (i.e., the CLARITY Act) have entered the final stages, with both sides reaching compromises on a few remaining contentious points. The number of disputes has been reduced from over a dozen to 2-3 core issues, with discussions on stablecoin rewards being "in a good place." While banks express concerns about stablecoins offering similar yields to deposits, there is an overall bipartisan compromise trend. JPMorgan believes that "there is no perfect bill," and once passed, the bill will provide important regulatory clarity for the integration of digital assets into the U.S. financial system.The "Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act" is currently in advanced negotiations in the U.S. Senate, with Senate staff stating that the draft is "very close" to resolution, but the final text has not yet been released, nor has a formal vote been scheduled. The remaining major disagreements focus on stablecoin rewards, DeFi regulation, and token classification issues. Although optimism is rising, there is still a risk of delays due to the 2026 midterm elections, which could lead to a more uncertain political environment. If the bill is ultimately passed, it will delineate the regulatory authority between the SEC and CFTC, providing a long-term regulatory framework for stablecoins, DeFi, and the entire cryptocurrency industry.

BitMEX Research proposes a new mechanism to mitigate the impact of quantum computing-related Bitcoin freezing

According to official news, BitMEX Research has released a new research article proposing that in response to the risk of future quantum computers potentially breaking elliptic curve signatures, the Bitcoin network could adopt an alternative soft fork mechanism to "directly freeze" to reduce controversy and increase flexibility.The proposal revolves around "quantum-vulnerable fund freezing," but suggests avoiding the direct freezing of all related assets without evidence, instead gradually implementing security strategies through a verifiable condition-triggering mechanism. The core of the proposal is to establish a "signal vault," which contains special addresses generated using "accidental numbers" to prove that no one possesses their private keys. If passive spending occurs from that address, it will be regarded as on-chain evidence that quantum computing capabilities genuinely exist, thereby immediately triggering a comprehensive freeze of quantum-vulnerable assets.At the same time, the fund could attract capital through a multi-signature structure as a "quantum bounty," aimed at incentivizing potential attackers to expose their capabilities. The article also mentions that there is currently a BIP-361 proposal promoting the phased disabling of the old signature system and ultimately freezing risky assets, but this proposal is controversial due to its involvement in "mandatory freezing."The newly proposed "signal-trigger + security window" mechanism aims to replace the fixed-time freeze path, reducing potential system shocks while retaining Bitcoin's censorship-resistant characteristics, but it also brings complexity and execution risk trade-off issues.
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