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BTC $75,576.78 +1.13%
ETH $2,351.19 +0.45%
BNB $632.51 +1.85%
XRP $1.45 +2.12%
SOL $88.22 +3.45%
TRX $0.3240 -1.01%
DOGE $0.0985 +2.00%
ADA $0.2572 +3.61%
BCH $449.80 +2.20%
LINK $9.50 +2.02%
HYPE $43.68 -2.39%
AAVE $117.23 +10.07%
SUI $0.9991 +2.92%
XLM $0.1694 +5.40%
ZEC $333.11 -3.24%

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Wintermute: The ceasefire trade is dead, the market has returned to an upward trend, and the confirmation of the Strait's reopening may drive Bitcoin to break through $75,000

Wintermute stated that the market experienced two distinct phases last week: the first half of the week was driven by ceasefire expectations, with the Nasdaq rising 4.5%, Bitcoin up 2.6%, and the VIX falling below 20. Over the weekend, talks in Islamabad broke down, and the U.S. announced a comprehensive maritime blockade on Iranian ports, causing Brent crude oil to surge 8% in a single day, returning above $103, leading risk assets to give back their gains.On the macro front: U.S. March CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year, with core CPI slightly below expectations at 2.6%. The market believes this is still a concentrated energy shock rather than widespread inflation. Asian markets saw a slight decline overnight, with Nasdaq futures steady. The market's reaction to each new piece of news is weakening, suggesting that it may have priced in the worst-case scenario or is becoming complacent.In terms of crypto assets: Bitcoin closed up 2.6% last week but did not lead the gains. The price has been consolidating in the $65,000-$73,000 range for over two months. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $22.3 million last week, while Ethereum ETFs continued to bleed, with outflows reaching $327 million year-to-date. Open interest in perpetual contracts has stabilized in the $28-30 billion range.Options traders' gamma exposure in the $68,000-$72,000 range indicates that hedging activities will amplify bidirectional volatility within that range. Wintermute believes that the ceasefire trade is dead, and the market is returning to an escalation trend. However, the market's reaction function is weakening. Confirmation of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could push Bitcoin to break above $75,000, while continued escalation may keep prices in a range-bound fluctuation with a downward tendency. The earnings season may partially shift market attention back to fundamentals, which could change the positioning behavior at the edges of the range.

The American Bankers Association warns: Allowing stablecoins to pay interest will accelerate deposit outflows and severely impact community bank lending

According to an article in the American Bankers Association (ABA) Journal, experts including the ABA's chief economist point out that the recent research report by the White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) on the issuance of yield from payment stablecoins raises the wrong questions and may mislead policymakers.The CEA report mainly explores "how prohibiting the issuance of yield from payment stablecoins will affect bank lending," concluding that banning yields would only increase bank lending by about $1.2 billion, with minimal impact.However, the ABA believes that the real policy concern is not the consequences of "prohibition," but the risks that may arise from "allowing" the issuance of yield from payment stablecoins: accelerating deposit outflows, allowing yields to stimulate households and businesses to move funds from bank deposits (especially community banks) to stablecoins, which would have a significant impact when the market size expands to $1-2 trillion. ABA analysis shows that loans in Iowa alone could decrease by $4.4 billion to $8.7 billion as a result.Impact on community banks: Deposit outflows will force community banks to replace funding with higher-cost wholesale financing (such as Federal Home Loan Bank advances), raising their funding costs and thereby reducing loans to local households and small businesses. It is not a harmless "reshuffling": The CEA believes that deposits are merely "reshuffled" within the banking system, with overall impact being minimal.However, the ABA points out that deposits flowing from community banks to a few large institutions or stablecoin reserve accounts will harm sectors that rely on relationship-based bank lending. The ABA believes that prohibiting the issuance of yield from payment stablecoins is a prudent protective measure that allows stablecoins to mature as a tool for payment innovation rather than becoming a source of economic risk that substitutes for insured deposits.

U.S. Senator warns that the CLARITY Act should be passed as soon as possible, or the regulatory window may close until 2030

U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis stated that the United States should not continue to delay the legislative process of the CLARITY Act, or it may take nearly four years to push for improvements in the regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency industry again.She posted on social media platform X, saying, "This is our last chance to pass the CLARITY Act before at least 2030," and emphasized that "we cannot let the future of American finance be put at risk." The bill aims to provide a clearer regulatory structure for the cryptocurrency industry, clarifying the responsibilities of regulatory agencies to promote industry innovation and market development. With the U.S. midterm elections approaching, there are concerns that congressional priorities may shift, slowing down the legislative process.Former White House AI and cryptocurrency affairs head David Sacks also expressed support for advancing the bill as soon as possible, stating, "Now is the time for action," and anticipated that the relevant market structure legislation would ultimately be signed into law by the president. In the industry, several individuals, including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, have recently called for an expedited legislative process, believing that clear rules will promote innovation and increase market participation. On the regulatory side, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins also expressed support for advancing comprehensive market structure legislation to avoid ongoing regulatory uncertainty affecting industry development.
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