The U.S. IPO market will underperform the S&P 500 in 2025, with the overall performance influenced by crypto and AI companies

According to Bloomberg, the average increase from IPO price to the end of the year for U.S. public companies in 2025 is 13.9%, lower than the 16% increase of the S&P 500 index, with poor performance from cryptocurrency and AI companies being the main reason.

Stablecoin issuer Circle performed better, surging 170% on its IPO debut, but then fell nearly 70% from a high of $263 to $84.80; Gemini performed worse, plummeting 64.5% from an IPO price of $28 to $9.92; Bullish dropped from a high of $68 to $37.87. Medium-sized IPOs ($500 million to $1 billion) averaged only a 5.6% increase, far below the 20% of large IPOs ($1 billion+).

The head of PwC's U.S. IPO practice stated that the market has returned to fundamentals-driven dynamics, with investors becoming more selective and the bar for early-stage tech companies significantly raised.