Galaxy Digital: The GENIUS stablecoin could bring up to $12 trillion in U.S. credit expansion by 2030

Galaxy Research Research Director Alex Thorn published a post disclosing that Galaxy Research released a latest report rebutting the banking industry's assertion that the GENIUS Act will impact U.S. bank deposits, and provided quantitative estimates.

The core findings of the report are as follows: Under the framework of the GENIUS Act, 60% to 70% of the incremental stablecoins will come from overseas, with the inflow of overseas deposits being about twice the amount of domestic deposit migration, indicating a net increase overall rather than a transfer of existing stock; each newly minted GENIUS stablecoin can generate approximately 32 cents of net credit for the U.S. economy; by 2030, under the baseline scenario, the total scale of credit expansion is about $400 billion, and in an optimistic scenario, it could reach $1.2 trillion.

In addition, the short-end yield on U.S. Treasuries (T-bills) will be compressed by 3 to 5 basis points, potentially saving taxpayers up to $3 billion in borrowing costs each year. The report also points out that the interest pass-through mechanism does not pose a survival threat to the U.S. banking industry; it is merely a redistribution of profit margins and will not reduce overall credit capacity.