SignalPlus Volatility Column (20240403): Prices Slightly Rebound, Option Risk Sentiment Warms Up

2024-04-07 16:08:39

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The BTC price has slightly rebounded around $65,000, with options volatility declining in parallel and risk sentiment improving.

Following Chairman Powell's speech, Daly and Mester from the Federal Reserve attempted to retract any expectations of imminent rate cuts yesterday (April 2). Daly mentioned that while the market's general expectation of three rate cuts is a baseline, it cannot be guaranteed, and also stated that rising oil prices could become a problem. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond briefly broke above 4.4% before retreating to 4.365%, while the two-year yield remained fluctuating above 4.7%. The three major U.S. stock indices fell about 1% due to the risk-averse sentiment triggered by this, compounded by Tesla's significant drop (-4.9%) due to a poor first-quarter earnings report.

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar; This week, the U.S. non-farm payroll index and hourly wage data will be released.

Source: SignalPlus & TradingView

In the cryptocurrency sector, BTC price slightly rebounded around $65,000, with options volatility declining in parallel and risk sentiment improving. Over the past day, there was a large sell-off of put options at the $64,000 and $60,000 levels, while bullish options with strike prices above $70,000 began to emerge again after the end of April. For ETH, a large focus has been on the 8,500 sets of 26 APR 24 2600 vs 3100 sold put spreads, along with a significant number of bullish strategies being executed.