The correlation between the cryptocurrency industry and the US dollar trend | Q&A

1. The founder of ICP tweeted that artificial intelligence AI runs on the blockchain ICP. Does decentralized AI have potential?

ICP is an old project, but over the years, there has been almost no significant progress, yet many people still care about it. I stopped paying attention to this project a long time ago.

As for decentralized AI, I have always believed it is necessary. However, there are currently not many projects genuinely moving in this direction.

Recently, I saw an article online mentioning that the current design architecture of NVIDIA GPUs makes it difficult for devices built on them to operate in a distributed manner over long physical distances. Only centralized operation can leverage the performance and advantages of GPU computing power.

If this is true, then in the short term, the decentralized computing power I envision is likely hard to achieve. To truly realize decentralized AI computing power, it may require the redesign of a chip that can overcome the current limitations of physical distance.

2. I bought XX BRC20 SHIB inscriptions. Compared to SHIB on Ethereum now, the market value of SHIB inscriptions is much lower. Does SHIB inscriptions have potential in the future?

In the crypto ecosystem, generally speaking, the potential of clones is quite limited.

Let's take the two subfields most susceptible to emotional fluctuations in this ecosystem, meme coins and NFTs, as examples. Almost all successful cases have clones: CryptoPunks clones, Bored Apes clones, MEME clones…

No matter how these clones fared when they first came out, looking back today, hardly any of them have any decent vitality.

So I personally never chase clones.

3. What if the dollar collapses…

In various media in China, we often hear phrases like "dollar collapse" or "the decline of America."

Regarding these statements, if we hope to gain useful information from them to guide our investments, we still need to discern the logic and reasoning behind them, to see whether they are logical deductions or emotional outbursts.

Only information derived from logical reasoning, free from emotion, can be helpful for our investments. Because as investors, if we cannot maintain objectivity and rationality, we will definitely be battered by the market.

From a historical trend perspective, after the Soviet Union collapsed, the national strength of the United States did indeed show a downward trend. However, in the foreseeable future, no matter how much its national strength declines, it will still be difficult to shake its position in the world, especially its leadership in the technology sector.

Similarly, the so-called "dollar collapse" is the same.

If we look solely at the dollar itself, the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in the 1970s and the dollar decoupling from gold indeed indicate that the dollar's position has been shaken. But that shake was only relative to gold; in comparison to other currencies, its strength and monopoly position have not changed at all.

Neither the once-rising Deutsche Mark, the yen, nor the later euro could challenge the dollar's position, and it has been proven that they are even weaker than the dollar.

So to this day, we still live in a dollar system, and in the foreseeable future, no matter how much the dollar declines, this situation is unlikely to undergo a disruptive change.

This is true not only for maintaining existing positions but also for the dollar's penetration into emerging fields, which is difficult for other currencies to match.

As participants in the crypto world, we should have a firsthand experience of this.

Who was the dominant force in the early crypto ecosystem? What was the dominant currency? Who held the pricing power? How did it gradually become dominated by the dollar, ultimately leading to Americans holding the pricing power?

In human society, competition often hinges on relative strength rather than absolute strength. Many times, winning a competitive victory is not necessarily because one is strong, but because the opponent is weaker.

If one day the "dollar collapses," I guess the assets priced in dollars that can withstand the storm are likely to remain, with Americans still holding the pricing power.

Even the safe-haven asset gold and the risk asset bitcoin we see today are both priced in dollars. This in itself indicates a problem.

Since the United States' position in cutting-edge fields and currency is difficult to shake, it means that in the future, all investments, especially in cutting-edge fields, will still be influenced by U.S. policies and dollar trends.

This fact is unlikely to change during our generation's lifetime.