bitcoin

BIT's weekly report indicates that with the announcement of a ceasefire, inflationary pressures have risen, and the selection of the Federal Reserve Chair is also in a phase of heightened transition expectations. Logically, these factors combined should have led to more significant market fluctuations, but Bitcoin's overall response remains relatively limited. The market's muted reaction to multiple variables coming into play is noteworthy.From a geopolitical perspective, the ceasefire arrangement promoted by Trump still faces considerable uncertainty in its actual implementation. Iran's influence in the passage arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz remains strong, and related shipping traffic is significantly below normal levels.From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is in a clearly oversold range, with some indicators beginning to show marginal recovery. However, it is still too early to conclude that the downward trend has ended based solely on these signals. In 2022, a similar oversold condition lasted for several months, during which there were moments of rebound signals, but ultimately failed to form an effective reversal. More important than whether the indicators rebound is which price level will trigger a market repricing, as well as the outcomes of two key events next week.

According to SoSoValue data, yesterday (Eastern Time April 9) the total net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs was $358 million.The Bitcoin spot ETF with the highest net inflow yesterday was the Blackrock ETF IBIT, with a net inflow of $269 million for the day, bringing IBIT's historical total net inflow to $63.589 billion.Next was the Fidelity ETF FBTC, with a net inflow of $53.345 million for the day, bringing FBTC's historical total net inflow to $11.034 billion.As of the time of publication, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs was $93.286 billion, with an ETF net asset ratio (market value compared to total Bitcoin market value) of 6.44%, and the historical cumulative net inflow had reached $56.503 billion.

According to Bitcoin Magazine, Avihu Levy of StarkWare published a research proposal titled "Quantum-Safe Bitcoin Transactions Without Soft Forks," proposing a quantum-safe Bitcoin scheme called QSB.This scheme aims to enable Bitcoin transactions to resist quantum computing attacks without changing the core rules of Bitcoin. QSB replaces the elliptic curve security mechanism with hash-based assumptions, shifting security to hash preimage resistance to defend against the threat of Shor's algorithm. The scheme operates within the existing script limitations of Bitcoin and does not require consensus changes or soft forks.However, QSB transactions exceed the standard relay strategy limitations and cannot propagate through the network under default settings; they need to be submitted directly to miners through services like Slipstream. The paper estimates that the cost of generating valid transactions using cloud GPUs is approximately $75 to $150. The complete transaction assembly and broadcasting of the project have not yet been demonstrated on-chain.

According to Cointelegraph, the head of digital assets at Morgan Stanley stated that the bank's newly launched Bitcoin ETF achieved the best first-day trading performance among all of the bank's ETF products, and more crypto products are in preparation.

According to BBX data, the cryptocurrency market maintained a strong oscillating pattern yesterday amid the positive aftermath of the ceasefire, with the following core dynamics:Strategy, Inc. (NASDAQ: $MSTR) disclosed on April 6 in accordance with SEC Form 8-K: the company purchased an additional 4,871 BTC at an average price of $67,718 from April 1 to 5, with a total expenditure of approximately $329.9 million; as of April 5, the total holdings reached 766,970 BTC, with a total book cost of approximately $58.02 billion (average price of $75,644). The funds for this round of purchases came from the sale of STRC preferred shares (net proceeds of approximately $102.6 million) and MSTR common stock (net proceeds of approximately $72 million).Bitmine Immersion Technologies (NYSE: $BMNR) officially upgraded from NYSE American to the New York Stock Exchange main board ("Big Board") on April 9, while also announcing that the board approved a $4 billion stock repurchase authorization. As of April 5, the company held 4,803,334 ETH (accounting for 3.98% of the total circulating supply), of which 3,334,637 ETH has been staked, yielding an annualized staking income of approximately $196 million; additionally, it holds 198 BTC and $864 million in cash, with total consolidated assets of approximately $11.4 billion.Morgan Stanley (NYSE: $MS) subsidiary Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust officially listed on NYSE Arca on April 8, with the stock code $MSBT, becoming the first Bitcoin spot ETF issued by a traditional Wall Street bank; over 1.6 million shares were traded on the first day, recording a net inflow of approximately $34 million; Coinbase Global, Inc. (NASDAQ: $COIN) subsidiary Coinbase Institutional has been designated as the official custodian for the fund.

Driven by expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East, the price of Bitcoin has risen sharply. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has reportedly instructed to initiate negotiations with Lebanon, following Trump's request for Israel to reduce military actions to maintain the ceasefire process. After the news was released, Bitcoin quickly surged by about 3%, currently reported at approximately $72,300, with a 24-hour increase of about 2%, significantly outperforming mainstream crypto assets; Ethereum, Solana, and XRP all saw increases of less than 1%. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks also stopped their decline and rebounded, while oil prices fell back from their intraday highs.It is noteworthy that there has been a clear divergence in the movements of Bitcoin and tech stocks, with their 20-day rolling correlation coefficient dropping to about 0.34, indicating that Bitcoin is gradually decoupling from tech stocks and is more driven by macro geopolitical factors and risk aversion sentiment.

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Bitcoin futures market continues to weaken. Data shows that the average daily open interest (OI) in March 2026 has fallen below $8 billion, further dropping to about $7.2 billion in early April, marking a new low since February 2024, and it has declined for the fifth consecutive month. Meanwhile, the monthly trading volume in March fell to $163 billion, nearly halving from the peak of January 2025.Market analysis indicates that this round of decline is primarily due to large-scale liquidations of "basis trades." Previously, institutions profited from price differences by buying spot ETFs and shorting CME futures, which was the core driving force behind the growth of CME positions. However, as Bitcoin prices have retreated from a high of $120,000 to below $70,000, the annualized basis yield has significantly compressed. Currently, the basis yield of about 5% is close to the risk-free interest rate level of about 4.5%. When factoring in funding costs and counterparty risks, the arbitrage space has essentially disappeared, prompting leveraged funds to withdraw.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, the net outflow of Bitcoin ETF in the United States is 2,242 BTC, the net outflow of Ethereum ETF is 23,158 ETH, and the net outflow of Solana ETF is 30,226 ETH.

The latest U.S. PCE inflation data largely met expectations, easing market uncertainty, and Bitcoin's price stabilized after previously reaching around $73,000. Data shows that the core PCE year-on-year is 3%, and month-on-month is 0.4%. The market is also influenced by the easing situation between the U.S. and Iran, but analysts point out that the current PCE data has not yet reflected potential energy price shocks.Although the inflation data did not trigger significant market fluctuations, investors remain cautious about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations for this year. Economist Mohamed El-Erian stated that compared to PCE, the upcoming CPI data to be released this week will have a more critical impact on the market, especially against the backdrop of oil price fluctuations. On the trading front, the market remains in a volatile range, with liquidity mainly concentrated in the $69,000 to $76,000 range. Trader Michaël van de Poppe believes that as long as the key support range holds, Bitcoin is expected to start a new round of upward momentum, targeting $80,000.

Crypto analyst Ali published a lengthy analysis on the X platform, pointing out that rather than debating whether Bitcoin has bottomed out, it is better to focus on whether the current volatility constitutes a "generational entry opportunity." Based on indicators such as long-term trend lines, on-chain liquidity, and cost distribution, the core "value range" of this cycle is defined.In terms of support, the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) shows that there is a significant concentration of chips in the range of approximately $63,111 to $70,685, forming the current main support zone; if it falls below $63,111, the market may enter a liquidity vacuum. From a long-term trend perspective, Bitcoin is approaching the key upward trend line of the past decade (approximately $56,000 to $60,000), which historically has often corresponded to accumulation phases before major upward movements.

Cryptocurrency ATM operator Bitcoin Depot disclosed that it lost approximately 50.9 bitcoins in a cybersecurity incident, equivalent to about $3.7 million at current prices. According to documents submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the attack occurred on March 23, with hackers obtaining credentials related to the company's enterprise-level bitcoin wallet, allowing them to breach some internal systems. Bitcoin Depot stated that customer accounts, the platform, and personal data were not affected.

According to ZachXBT, Bitcoin Depot submitted an 8-K on April 6, 2026, stating that 50.9 BTC had been stolen; its on-chain tracking shows that 19 high-confidence theft addresses had transferred a total of 54.45 BTC as early as March 20, which is 3.55 BTC more than the disclosed amount, and the funds ultimately flowed into KuCoin, indicating that the company may have only noticed the anomaly three days later.

According to CoinDesk, as market sentiment improves, the Bitcoin options market is showing a significant shift. The call options with a strike price of $80,000 on Deribit have become the most popular trades, with an open interest exceeding $1.6 billion, surpassing the previously dominant $60,000 put options (with an open interest of about $1.41 billion). Analysts believe that the recent temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran has led to a decline in oil prices, easing inflation expectations, which may enhance the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, thereby benefiting risk assets including Bitcoin.In addition, asset management firm 21Shares stated that with continued inflows into ETFs and increased institutional holdings, if the geopolitical situation eases and the regulatory environment improves, Bitcoin could potentially surge to $100,000 by the end of the second quarter. However, risks remain in the market; the current ceasefire situation is relatively fragile, and if the conflict in the Middle East escalates again, a rebound in oil prices could suppress market risk appetite, thereby limiting Bitcoin's upside potential.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin is currently priced at about $71,200, and Ethereum is at $2,185, with the overall market maintaining a range-bound fluctuation. Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone warned that if Bitcoin cannot recover to $75,000, there is a risk of dropping to $10,000; Fundstrat founder Tom Lee believes that the market bottom has been established.In terms of derivatives, Bitcoin futures open interest has risen to 726,000 contracts, with the 24-hour CVD being positive for two consecutive days, and the funding rate slightly above zero, indicating an overall bullish tendency; the CVD and funding rates for ETH, XRP, and Solana are slightly negative. The volatility index continues to decline, with the market expecting price fluctuations of only about 2.5% around Friday's inflation data.Regarding altcoins, MANA and AERO each rose by about 6%, but MANA's increase was accompanied by a 25% surge in open interest, indicating it is mainly driven by leverage. The market is focused on whether Bitcoin can effectively break through $75,000 and establish support; if achieved, it may trigger a rotation of funds into oversold altcoin sectors.

According to data from Farside Investors, Morgan Stanley officially launched the spot Bitcoin ETF (MSBT) on Wednesday, attracting $306,000 in inflows on its first trading day, becoming the first major commercial bank in the U.S. to introduce such a product. The management fee for MSBT is 0.14%, currently the lowest fee for a Bitcoin ETF on the market.Although the fund performed steadily on its first day, the overall net outflow for spot Bitcoin ETFs across the U.S. was $124.5 million on Wednesday, marking the second consecutive trading day of net outflows. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart stated that this product may serve as a lead generation tool aimed at attracting high-net-worth individuals in the cryptocurrency space to use its wealth management services.

According to The Block, based on monitoring by Onchain Lens, the Royal Government of Bhutan transferred approximately 319.7 BTC (about 22.68 million USD) to two addresses three hours ago. About 250 BTC were transferred to a wallet that was previously used to sell funds through Galaxy Digital and OKX, while another 69.7 BTC were sent to a new unmarked address.According to Arkham data, the Bhutanese government has transferred out Bitcoin worth 215.7 million USD from its holding addresses this year, of which 162.6 million USD was sent to unmarked wallets. After this transfer, Bhutan currently holds 3,954 BTC, valued at approximately 280.6 million USD.The country held about 13,000 BTC at its peak in October 2024, with its Bitcoin assets managed by the national sovereign wealth fund Druk Holding and Investments Ltd. Bhutan previously accumulated its Bitcoin holdings through a hydropower-supported mining operation, but according to Arkham data, its last recorded Bitcoin inflow exceeding 100,000 USD was a year ago.

According to SoSoValue data, yesterday (Eastern Time April 8), the total net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs was $125 million.The Bitcoin spot ETF with the highest single-day net inflow yesterday was the Blackrock ETF IBIT, with a single-day net inflow of $40.376 million. Currently, the historical total net inflow of IBIT has reached $6.332 billion.The Bitcoin spot ETF with the highest single-day net outflow yesterday was the Fidelity ETF FBTC, with a single-day net outflow of $79.120 million. Currently, the historical total net inflow of FBTC has reached $10.981 billion.As of the time of writing, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $91.901 billion, and the ETF net asset ratio (market value compared to total Bitcoin market value) is 6.43%. The historical cumulative net inflow has reached $56.145 billion.