Hotcoin Research | Market Insights: May 27, 2024 - June 2, 2024

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $1.33 trillion, with BTC accounting for 52.77%.

This week, the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. was $170.9 million. Due to the slowdown in net inflows of Bitcoin spot ETFs, the market continues to experience fluctuations. On May 28, a large amount of BTC was transferred out of the Mt. Gox wallet, causing a brief drop in the market, but it was quickly recovered.

This week, mainstream meme coins experienced a broad rally, including TURBO, WIF, MAGA, TRUMP, PEPE, and the Rune track DOG, all showing good performance. Notably, PEPE has entered the top 20 by market capitalization, currently valued at $6.4 billion, surpassing the total market cap of most major NFT projects.

The "Fear & Greed Index" is at 72, indicating greed for the past 7 days. (This is a decrease in the greed index compared to last week.)

Understanding the Present

Weekly Major Events Review

1. Tether froze nearly 600,000 USDT in the 0x1b4 address;

2. PEPE's market cap surpassed MATIC, rising to 21st place in cryptocurrency market rankings;

3. Elon Musk's AI company xAI completed a $6 billion Series B funding round, with participation from a16z and others;

4. The Mt. Gox wallet transferred a total of 141,604 BTC on May 28, worth approximately $9.8 billion;

5. Trump stated that if re-elected, he would consider pardoning WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange;

6. Andrew Kang: The rise of MEME tokens is no longer an indicator of market peaks;

7. The TVL gap between Optimism and Base network has narrowed to just $800 million;

8. Farcaster's total user count surpassed 420,000, with protocol revenue exceeding $1.5 million;

9. BlackRock's IBIT became the fastest ETF to reach $20 billion in size;

10. Over 96% of PEPE holders have made a profit, making it the major memecoin with the highest proportion of profitable holders;

11. LayerZero launched on Solana, supporting full-chain messaging across 8 chains;

12. An address marked as vitalik.eth donated 30 ETH to Juicebox to support the legal defense fund for Tornado Cash developers;

13. On June 1, a swearing-in ceremony for President Nayib Bukele was held at Gerardo Barrios Square in El Salvador, marking the start of his second term.

Macroeconomics

1. On May 30, Terraform Labs and its CEO Do Kwon reached a preliminary "principled" settlement with the SEC regarding the fraud case. Previously, the SEC demanded that Do Kwon and Terraform pay approximately $4.7 billion in disgorged profits and pre-judgment interest, along with a total of $520 million in civil penalties. Terraform's legal team suggested a $1 million civil penalty without paying disgorged profits. Both parties will submit supplementary proposals by May 6 and May 1, respectively;

2. On May 31, the SEC requested issuers to submit S-1 draft filings by Friday. Subsequently, the SEC will provide the first round of comments and make further modifications;

3. 10x Research: If the seasonally adjusted CPI year-on-year rate in May drops to 3.3% or lower, it will help Bitcoin reach a new all-time high;

4. On May 29, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in June is 99.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 0.8%;

5. On May 30, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated that economic activity continued to expand nationwide from early April to mid-May, with most regions experiencing slight growth.

ETF

Statistics show that from May 27 to May 31, the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. was $170.9 million; the Hong Kong Bitcoin spot ETF saw minimal inflows this week, with a small outflow;

As of May 31, GBTC had a total outflow of $17.902 billion; the total holdings of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs amounted to $13.860 billion; the total holdings of Hong Kong Bitcoin spot ETFs amounted to $231 million.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Events

1. GM Vietnam 2024 will be held from June 7 to 8 in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. The summit is hosted by Kyros Ventures, co-hosted by Ninety Even and Ancient8, and will gather global investors, entrepreneurs, and technical experts to discuss the latest industry trends and seek new opportunities for market growth and future development;

2. The SuperAI Conference will take place from June 5 to 6 at Marina Bay Sands in Singapore, expecting to welcome 5,000 attendees to participate in cutting-edge discussions on industry development, covering topics such as generative AI, robotics, and AI×Web3. Guests at the SuperAI Conference include Ahmad Shadid, founder and CEO of io.net, Niraj Pant, founder of Ritual, Yunzhong He, co-founder of Kaito AI, Greg Osuri, founder of Akash Network, and Teddy Lee, product manager at OpenAI.

Project Progress

1. The LayerZero Witch Bounty event will close on June 1 at 07:59 and must include at least 20 addresses.

2. Fidelity will charge new fees to nine ETF companies on June 3 to meet the costs of listed products. Investors will be charged a service fee of $100 when placing buy orders for a series of exchange-traded strategy products.

3. The lightweight blockchain protocol Mina plans to conduct the Berkeley upgrade on June 4, 2024, to bring enhanced ZK programmability, a more powerful proof system, and the elimination of super rewards, aiming to enable developers across the ecosystem to easily build ZK applications.

4. The fourth round of retrospective public goods fundraising applications for Optimism will close on June 7, with 10 million OP tokens dedicated to deploying contracts on Superchain and generating on-chain builder demand for block space;

Important Events

1. Biden has extended the deadline for a decision on the resolution to "overturn crypto accounting policies" to June 3. Previously, the proposal to overturn crypto accounting policies was passed by the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate on May 8 and May 17, respectively;

2. The official committee of unsecured creditors for FTX stated that the deadline for submitting objections to FTX's restructuring plan is June 5, emphasizing the importance of maximizing creditor recovery rates and minimizing the time required for recovery.

Token Unlocking

1. The dYdX token DYDX will unlock approximately 33.33 million tokens on June 1 at 8:00, valued at about $67 million, accounting for 11.91% of the circulating supply;

2. The Sui token SUI will unlock approximately 65.08 million tokens on June 1 at 8:00, valued at about $68.07 million, accounting for 2.78% of the circulating supply;

3. ENA will unlock approximately 53.6 million tokens on June 2 at 7:00, valued at about $49.33 million, accounting for 3.62% of the circulating supply.