What is the reasonable price of LayerZero (ZRO) that is about to be launched?

2024-06-20 13:56:47

Collection

$ZRO is expected to have a valuation of at least $3 billion, which is reasonable, meaning $6 billion - $9 billion.

Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow

Risk Warning: The following content is a compilation of market opinions and does not constitute investment advice. For more specific information, please DYOR.

Let's talk about what you are most concerned about right now. At what price will $ZRO be released, and what is your $ZRO airdrop allocation value?

Here are my views on LayerZero's airdrop allocation, price prediction, and listing trading plans.

Airdrop Allocation

I agree with the criticism that most people have about the poor execution of the airdrop model. I mean, many people have been grinding for a whole year and only received 200-300 tokens. I think they should increase the core allocation by another 1-2%, which would make a big difference.

However, the Core allocation may still increase. Since not all the witches have been cleared, these allocations will cycle back to people. Considering the number of witches they caught, this could significantly increase the amount of core allocation.

See comments for details

Many people resent me for holding Kanpai Panda, but they don't consider that I, like them, have been working on LayerZero for a year and have published guides on it.

I received the same allocation in the Core section, and Kanpai is part of the draft.

Price Prediction

First, to predict the price of $ZRO at launch, we need to find the following data:

Assumed FDV
Total Supply

Then, the price at which $ZRO will be released will be calculated as: FDV / Total Supply.

As @PrimordialAA mentioned, the total supply is 1 billion, so how do we estimate FDV?

My preferred method for estimating FDV at launch is to look at the FDV of recently launched projects with similar funding and competitors. For this, I will consider the launches of $STRK & $W.

So, why $STRK & $W?

After reading the above post, it can be seen that predicting the price involves considering the FDV, funding, and valuations of recently launched projects, which is why I want to look at the launches of $STRK & $W because their public and private valuations can help us predict the FDV of $ZRO.

Recent Project Comparisons:

$STRK:

Raised: $282 million
Valuation: $8 billion
Launch FDV: $28 billion

$W:

Funds Raised: $225 million
Valuation: $2.5 billion
Launch FDV: $17 billion

$ZRO:

Raised: $263 million
Valuation: $3 billion
Launch FDV: ?

From the above, it is clear that:

$STRK launched with an FDV 3.5 times higher than its valuation.
$W launched with a price 6.5 times higher than its valuation.

Given the poor market conditions, I think it is reasonable to expect an FDV of at least 2-3 times the $3 billion valuation for $ZRO, which means $6 billion - $9 billion.

So what about the price? FDV / Total Supply

Total Supply of $ZRO: 1 billion

Price of $ZRO:

$6 billion FDV = $6
$7 billion FDV = $7
$8 billion FDV = $8
$9 billion FDV = $9

My "Game" Plan

I believe LayerZero will continue to exist. Unlike L1 and L2 chains, which need to actively attract people to join, LayerZero is more like an infrastructure project that almost all existing and upcoming projects will use as a cross-chain layer.

This means that even if users are not consciously using LayerZero technology, they will still be exposed to it because it has been integrated into many projects. This is different from L1 and L2, where you have to convince people to actually use your chain.

FDV and Target Price: