Hotcoin Research | Market Insights: July 8-12, 2024

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.14 trillion, with BTC accounting for 53.28%, which is $1.14 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $153.4 billion.

This week, the price of BTC saw a certain increase due to a net inflow of $1.0469 billion into the US Bitcoin spot ETF, with BTC's price breaking through $59,000 from $55,000 on July 8, and ETH also surpassing $3,100. Although there was some selling pressure from the German government, its BTC was exhausted by July 13.

This week, the prices of the top 200 projects by market capitalization on Coinmarket cap experienced a general rise, with SATS increasing by 72.46% over the past 7 days and NOT increasing by 51.11%.

The "Fear & Greed Index" is at 25 (market sentiment is more fearful compared to last week), with fear prevailing throughout the week. Market panic has reached a new low in a year.

Understanding the Present

Review of Major Events of the Week

1. CME Fed Watch: The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in August is 93.3%;

2. A CoinShares report shows that digital asset investment products saw inflows of $441 million last week;

3. BlackRock's BUIDL fund has reached a total asset size of $491 million;

4. On July 8, Solana's on-chain DEX trading volume reached $1.811 billion, surpassing Ethereum's on-chain DEX trading volume of $1.335 billion;

5. On July 9, 10x Research predicted that Bitcoin might rebound to $60,000--$62,000 before facing resistance;

6. Apple’s M chip devices will temporarily be removed from the list of supported devices, including M2 and M3 chip computers;

7. On July 10, Solana's on-chain DEX trading volume surpassed Ethereum, reaching $2.467 billion;

8. Mind Network launched its Alpha mainnet using Fully Homomorphic Encryption (FHE) technology, aimed at enhancing the security and efficiency of AI and POS networks;

9. On July 11, the total open interest of Bitcoin contracts across the network decreased by 1.86% in 24 hours, reporting $28.819 billion; the total open interest of Ethereum contracts slightly increased by 0.24%, reporting $12.658 billion;

10. Cycle Capital analyzed the selling pressure of BTC in Mentougou: actual selling pressure has not yet entered the market, and distribution to CEX may cause panic selling;

11. The founder and CEO of Compound and other team members announced their resignation to establish a new project called Legend;

12. The meme project DOGS' built-in Telegram Stars purchasing feature has raised community concerns;

13. Morgan Creek Digital will raise $500 million for a new Web3 venture capital fund.

Macroeconomics

1. On July 9, VanEck and 21Shares submitted the 19b-4 form for their Solana ETF to the SEC;

2. On July 9, CME Fed Watch: The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in August is 95.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is 71.8%;

3. Bitwise's Chief Compliance Officer stated that the Ethereum ETF is "close to the finish line," and the SEC is open to a third cryptocurrency ETF;

4. On July 11, Bloomberg ETF analysts predicted that the SEC might approve the spot Ethereum ETF on July 18;

5. On July 11, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the CPI data for June 2024, with an expected annual rate of 3.1%, down from 3.3%;

6. On July 13, Mark Cuban called for the removal of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler.

ETF

According to statistics, from July 8 to 12, the US Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of $1.0469 billion; as of July 12, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $18.638 billion, currently holding $15.71 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $18.06 billion. The total market capitalization of US Bitcoin spot ETFs is $52.629 billion.

Foreseeing the Future

Upcoming Events

1. Cobo will hold an offline event themed "New Upgrade, Embracing the Future --- Cobo Portal Launch Conference" on July 17, 2024, from 17:00 to 22:00 at the Westin Hotel in Singapore, with guests including Cobo co-founder and CEO Shen Yu, Cobo co-founder and CTO Dr. Jiang Changhao, and guests from Babylon, Deribit, Figment, HashKey Wealth, Legend Trading, and 57Blocks;

2. Bitcoin2024 Nashville will take place from July 25 to 27, 2024, at the Music City Center in Nashville, Tennessee, with a core focus entirely on Bitcoin;

3. EDCON 2024 will be held in Tokyo, Japan, from July 26 to 30, and is an annual Ethereum community development conference aimed at inviting influential industry leaders and projects from around the world to participate and share information. This event includes a 5-day workshop, parties, and speeches from industry leaders.

Project Progress

1. The Aleo testnet Beta validator incentive program will continue until July 15, allowing users to earn Aleo credit points by solving Coinbase challenges and generating zero-knowledge proofs. The official will provide 1 million credit points for validators, and accumulating 1,000 mainnet credit points will qualify for the minimum reward. If users earn fewer points than this, they will not receive rewards;

2. Galxe (GAL) will upgrade to Gravity (G), and Binance will stop trading and delist all existing GAL spot trading pairs (GAL/BTC, GAL/USDT, and GAL/TRY) at 11:00 on July 15, automatically withdrawing all open orders. Additionally, the official will open G/USDT and G/TRY spot trading at 16:00 on July 19;

3. Layer1 relational blockchain Chromia announced that its MVP mainnet will launch on July 16, and after the MVP mainnet launch, users will be able to cross-chain CHR from Ethereum and BNB Chain to Chromia.

Important Events

1. The president of The ETF Store expects the Ethereum spot ETF to be launched in the week of July 15, stating that Bloomberg's prediction remains mid-July, with the revised S-1 expected to be submitted on July 8, and the final S-1 possibly submitted on July 12, theoretically meaning it will launch in the week of July 15;

2. A U.S. court will rule on July 15 regarding Roman Sterlingov, the founder of the cryptocurrency mixing company Bitcoin Fog, who was convicted for helping launder money for dark web markets and has been detained for nearly three years;

3. The Korea Digital Asset Exchange Alliance (DAXA) has developed a "Virtual Asset Trading Support Demonstration Case" based on the "Virtual Asset User Protection Act," which will re-examine 1,333 tokens listed on Korean exchanges starting July 19 for a duration of 6 months, and will also conduct formal and quality reviews for new virtual assets that exchanges wish to list.

Token Unlocking

1. The Optimism token OP will unlock 10 million tokens at 20:00 on July 15, valued at approximately $16 million, accounting for 0.89% of the circulating supply;

2. The Starknet token STRK will unlock 64 million tokens at 20:00 on July 15, valued at approximately $38 million, accounting for 4.92% of the circulating supply;

3. The Arbitrum token ARB will unlock 96 million tokens at 21:00 on July 16, valued at approximately $68 million, accounting for 2.97% of the circulating supply;

4. The Axie Infinity token AXS will unlock 2.45 million tokens at 21:00 on July 16, valued at approximately $13.2 million, accounting for 1.66% of the circulating supply;

5. The ApeCoin token APE will unlock 15.6 million tokens at 20:00 on July 17, valued at approximately $11.48 million, accounting for 2.31% of the circulating supply;

6. The Pixels token PIXEL will unlock 54.38 million tokens at 18:00 on July 19, valued at approximately $10.49 million, accounting for 7.05% of the circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core investment research department of Hotcoin, is dedicated to providing detailed and professional analysis for the cryptocurrency market. Our goal is to offer clear market insights and practical operational guidelines for investors at different levels. Our professional content includes the "Play and Earn Web3" tutorial series, in-depth analysis of cryptocurrency industry trends, detailed analysis of potential projects, and real-time market observations. Whether you are a newcomer exploring the crypto space or a seasoned investor seeking deeper insights, Hotcoin will be your reliable partner in understanding and seizing market opportunities.

Risk Warning

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investing carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors conduct investments based on a full understanding of these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.

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