Bitfinex Alpha: The correlation between Trump's election probability and Bitcoin's upward trajectory has strengthened

ChainCatcher message, Bitfinex published a research report indicating that under the multiple influences of geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic factors, and the intensifying "Trump trade" narrative, BTC volatility has increased, with a significant 6.2% intra-week pullback last week, followed by a rebound. This pullback highlights the growing impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on short-term prices, with an increased correlation between the likelihood of Trump's election and the upward trajectory of Bitcoin.

Market anticipation of the election has driven a surge in options trading activity, with options expiring on key dates before and after the election commanding higher premiums. Implied volatility may reach a peak of 100-day volatility shortly after the U.S. election day on November 8, indicating that the market is preparing for potential turmoil, with expectations that short-term volatility will be higher than usual regardless of the election outcome.