The explosion of the Believe platform: mastering first principles, buying low in value troughs

Author: Yuyue (@yuyue_chris)

On 4/29, it has been exactly half a month since I first called the platform token of @believeapp. Some friends are still skeptical about Launchcoin due to clout. For those who are not familiar, you can take a closer look at my four tweets, where I have written down the logic in full. Other scattered thoughts have also been shared on Twitter and mentioned in live streams; this is the full path to discovering value gaps.

[4/29] First, the most important question: why does the pivot from clout not affect my judgment on Launchcoin, which is the platform of @believeapp?

• I mentioned this in my tweet on 4/29. The reason I wanted to buy PASTERNAK (the name before it was fully changed to Launchcoin) again is:

------ "The two small golden dogs today $DUPE $SUPERFRIEND were both launched on the platform of @believeapp, which is a new meme launchpad that originated from clout me, incubated and supported by @alliancedao. Today, these two golden dogs combined have a market cap of 10M, while the platform token itself peaked at 80M, and now the platform token is only 5M."

Yes, I made it clear from day one that its predecessor was clout. The logic for buying again is that group friend @0xEdwin999 discovered the name change to $LAUNCHCOIN, which clearly looks like it will be the platform token, but it hasn't clearly stated its empowerment.

When two new golden dogs casually reach 10M, while the platform token is only at 6M, isn't this the best buying opportunity? There is a clear value mismatch; this is a value gap.

[5/4] Why did I continue to buy Launchcoin for the second time? It is largely because the meme launched on boop was cut.

• The core logic is that 100 tokens of 1M are far easier than 1 token of 100M.

------ No need for Dragon One.

------ "Think about it, when we buy tokens on letsbonk and boop, they are basically related to 'this is strongly associated with bonkguy' and 'this interacts with dingaling,' and the degree of centralization is difficult to break away from in a short time, which instead shackles the platform's ceiling. The initial traffic is both good and bad… This is completely different from the current strategies of new platforms on the market…

If @pasternak can bring in an AI founder who knows how to operate, then he is equivalent to discovering a talent for the new era DK (the founder of Luna). Perhaps only this kind of decentralized traffic can break the ceiling for tokens on the platform. 'The platform token is fed back by revenue and golden dog income, rather than the platform token creating the ceiling for tokens on the platform.' Launchpad, after all, is used to launch projects and needs to rely on revenue to effectively support the platform's logic. People think pumpfun is amazing not because pumpfun issued a token, but because it unified the measurement, allowing all golden dogs to come from its platform.

At that time, I also knew that this idea was a slow cook and might not be fully validated by the market. Instead, it was a mindset of true primary investment, directly purchasing the platform token with an FDV of only 6M. 6M undoubtedly has nearly a hundred times the upside compared to other launchpads, especially when boop just came out with 500M. There is a clear value benchmark; this is a value gap.

Since then, Launchcoin once dropped to 2M.

[5/12] The Internet capital market, the new narrative that the core circle of Solana and the European and American circles want to lead is emerging.

• At this time, the first thing I noticed from the perspective of the platform token is still that '$DUPE went to 20M+ big fly.'

• So I emphasized again its platform revenue logic: 'This target is extremely cost-effective because it has an FDV of only 6M - it has already gained some recognition in the crypto circle, and it is a Launchpad incubated and supported by alliance dao @alliancedao, where the founder can bring in quality AI founder resources.'

At the same time, I also found that core figures of Solana, @rajgokal, one of the co-founders of Solana and COO of Solana Labs, along with the version god of AI craze @himgajria, were discussing the concept of the Internet capital market.

BTC has returned to 100,000, but the market is lifeless, and altcoins are experiencing meaningless and baseless surges. This market undoubtedly needs a new narrative, a new concept, and new terminology.

At that time, I realized that this new term and concept might be the new narrative that the core circle of Solana and the European and American circles want to lead, exploring fundraising in a decentralized way and the on-chain reality of equity and real assets, which is similar to the RWA I mentioned in the past few months and the previous pinned article 'Letting Opportunities Happen Fairly on the Chain: The On-Chain Narrative Shift, Power Transfer, Positive Changes in the Industry, and Insights for Primary Market Investment.' Therefore, I even told Lichuang that I added another investment when it broke 20M.

At that time, Launchcoin was at 22M, and the concept of the Internet capital market had just emerged, so this was still a value gap.

[5/13] When the new narrative arrives, be the first to believe; the crypto world needs dreamers.

• 'This new platform @believeapp is a decentralized YC incubator, this version of ai16z.'

• 'The product that @pasternak made had a poor experience as clout, leading to prejudice against believe. However, the founder does not have to be responsible for the old coin when issuing a new platform token. While constantly pivoting and exploring new directions, they can still insist on converting the old coin into a new coin, which shows they are not the type to just want to run away after making a quick buck.' While being prejudiced against Launchcoin, do not forget that Virtual @virtuals_io also transformed from pathdao, a chain game guild, to the current AI Agent Launchpad leader. The market should support those who persist, rather than those who continuously launch new projects after old projects soft exit. I also had contact with @everythingempt0 in the early days of Virtual, but due to twists of fate, I missed out. Before the AI boom arrived, no one expected that the initial FDV of 15M could reach the current 2B. When the new narrative arrives, be the first to believe; the crypto world needs dreamers. At this time, the rise is more based on optimism about the overall market and the new narrative and sentiment. Of course, you could say I am just blindly FOMOing, but I already have a cost advantage of dozens of times. When sharing logic and project updates, the buy button is in your own hands. At that time, the price was less than 100M; whether this is a value gap requires imagination.

Regarding my thoughts on what the @believeapp platform and the new platform need, as well as other related thoughts, I have also mentioned them in tweets over the past few days. When the full path of Launchcoin's explosion has clear signals and logic, the new narrative created is a kind of open conspiracy. Because even if I do not know people like @alliancedao and the core circles of Europe and America, I can still capture hundreds of times at low levels through clues, grasp the first principles of asset and revenue logic, and buy in at the value gap. After all, investment is about buying low and selling high.