believe

According to Jinshi reports, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that she still believes there is a possibility of interest rate cuts later this year; however, the fluctuations in oil prices caused by the Iran war have cast a shadow over the outlook. Yellen pointed out that this is a broad supply shock affecting multiple areas, including gasoline, liquefied natural gas, fertilizers, food, shipping costs, and semiconductors. While the possibility of raising interest rates cannot be ruled out, stable long-term inflation expectations suggest that this is unlikely to happen. She expects that there may be interest rate cuts by the end of this year.

According to market news, Pasternak, the founder of the Solana ecosystem application Believe, has been charged in a New York court for allegedly participating in a crypto rug pull scam.The incident involves the Solana public chain ecosystem and is suspected to be related to millions of dollars in losses. As the person in charge of the Believe project, Pasternak is accused of using the project to commit fraud, resulting in significant financial losses for investors. The case is currently under trial, and relevant details have not yet been fully disclosed.

Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital) founder Yi Lihua stated that peace negotiations typically move from disagreement to consensus. The motivation for continued warfare among all parties is weakening under the current circumstances, and the conflict may gradually come to an end. "We still insist that the war will end; neither side has any reason to continue fighting. Waiting for a rebound without taking profits, the moment an agreement is reached will be a bullish signal."He pointed out that, from a medium to long-term perspective, the market is generally waiting for a potential large-scale financial crisis. There are signs of defensive positioning on the funding side, such as large capital holding a high proportion of cash and sovereign entities increasing their gold holdings. In this context, if a crisis occurs again, it will be a key moment to test whether Bitcoin possesses the attributes of a safe-haven asset, and it may also present significant opportunities for low-position allocations.In addition, Yi Lihua believes that AI technology is bringing a new round of opportunities for outstanding entrepreneurs. A small number of teams can create global products, reducing financing and organizational management costs. Especially experienced serial entrepreneurs should seize this "AI Age of Exploration."

According to Jinshi reports, the chart in the Federal Reserve's economic outlook shows that most FOMC participants believe that PCE inflation and core PCE inflation face high uncertainty, with risks tilted to the upside.

According to Jin Shi reports, the chart in the Federal Reserve's economic outlook shows that most FOMC participants believe that the uncertainty facing actual GDP is high, with a downward risk bias.

According to Jinshi reports, the chart in the Federal Reserve's economic outlook shows that most FOMC participants believe there is high uncertainty regarding the unemployment rate, with risks tilted to the upside.

The Israeli military assessment believes it has successfully "assassinated" Ali Larijani, the Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council. The Iranian side has not yet made any statement on this.

According to Bloomberg, U.S. prosecutors stated that FTX co-founder Sam Bankman-Fried's request for a retrial should be denied because he failed to prove that his conviction was unjust.SBF is serving a 25-year prison sentence after a jury found him guilty of fraud and conspiracy in connection with the collapse of the FTX cryptocurrency exchange in 2023.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that he does not believe the Iran war will have a lasting impact on inflation. Although consumers may experience a "price shock" due to rising gasoline prices, policymakers will look through any one-time price increases. He pointed out that core indicators are better at predicting future inflation, so he is not focused on energy prices. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive time at the meeting on March 17-18.

According to Jinshi reports, traders believe there is a 50% chance that the Federal Reserve will make a second rate cut this year.

According to NBC News: U.S. President Trump (regarding the reports of the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei) stated that we believe this is a credible report, and most of those who make all the decisions are no longer there.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Barr stated that there is reason to believe that price pressures will further ease.

F2Pool co-founder Wang Chun posted on platform X, stating that quantum computing is more like a technological bubble compared to AI. The current industry is filled with hype but has almost no actual delivery results. AI is continuously improving the real world, while quantum computing is expected to remain unable to achieve practical applications by 2026, and it is anticipated to struggle to generate substantial industrial value in the coming decades. His trading view is to short quantum computing while maintaining a long position in Bitcoin.He also specifically named several quantum computing concept stocks that he is bearish on, including: Rigetti Computing ($RGTI), D-Wave Quantum ($QBTS), Quantum Computing Inc. ($QUBT), and IonQ ($IONQ). Wang Chun added that the current products and commercialization capabilities of these companies are insufficient, and market valuations are largely based on long-term technological expectations.

According to Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat and chairman of Bitmine, in an interview with Decrypt, the market should be very close to the bottom, as the current market sentiment is extremely poor and the price trend is also very bad.Fundstrat's analyst Tom Demar has been saying since last November that BTC would drop to $60,000. He initially believed that the bottom for ETH should be around $2,400, but if it cannot hold, it would bottom out near $1,890. He thinks it just needs to dip one more time, which would be the lowest point, indicating that we are very close to the end of the downward trend.Previously, Fundstrat stated in its 2026 cryptocurrency strategy advice to internal clients that the market would experience a deeper correction in the first half of the year, with a target price for BTC of $60,000 to $65,000; a target price for ETH of $1,800 to $2,000; and a target price for SOL of $50 to $75. However, Tom Lee himself has publicly claimed that both BTC and ETH will reach new highs in January 2026.

According to Cointelegraph, the Bitcoin market sentiment index has fallen to an all-time low, with some contrarian investors believing that $60,000 may have become the bottom of this cycle.Data shows that the cryptocurrency fear and greed index dropped to a historical low of 7 over the weekend, indicating that the market is in a state of "extreme fear." Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, pointed out that this indicator, along with the relative strength index, shows that the market is deeply oversold, a similar situation occurred during the 2018 bear market and the pandemic crash in March 2020, which may create conditions for a rebound.CoinGlass's liquidation heatmap shows that if the Bitcoin price rises by about $10,000, it could trigger the liquidation of over $5.45 billion in short positions, while a drop to $60,000 would only trigger $2.4 billion in liquidations. This imbalance may drive a short covering rally. However, structural risks in the market still exist.CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin is still far below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with a price Z-score of -1.6, indicating that it remains in a phase dominated by selling pressure. The net buying volume in the derivatives market has turned negative, and the Binance buy-sell ratio has also fallen below 1, showing strong selling pressure in the futures market.Analysts point out that stronger spot demand is needed to trigger a sustained rebound. From a longer-term perspective, historical data shows that Bitcoin bear market bottoms typically form below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which is currently around $57,000. If history repeats itself, the downside scenario could extend to $42,000.

According to community user records, Multicoin co-founder Kyle Samani stated yesterday in response to X user Taran (@Taran_ss) regarding the "bear market complaints":"Cryptocurrency is not as interesting as many people (including myself) once imagined. I used to believe in the vision of Web3 and in dApps. Now I don't. Blockchain is essentially just an asset ledger. They will reshape finance, but that's about it, nothing much more. DePIN is another noteworthy area. Cryptocurrency will continue to improve, but all the truly interesting questions have already been answered, except for the issue of on-chain privacy/confidentiality. (I still firmly believe that Zama will win this race.)"Shortly after, Kyle quickly deleted the tweet and earlier today posted a resignation announcement, stating that he has decided to step down from Multicoin Capital and will continue to serve as the chairman of Forward Industries (the largest SOL treasury company), looking forward to taking a break and exploring new directions in the tech field.Kyle also tweeted in response that he remains extremely bullish on SOL and cryptocurrency personally, and will continue to participate in the cryptocurrency space both as an individual and as the chairman of Forward.However, Multicoin Capital's letter to LPs may further validate the notion that "Kyle is no longer interested in crypto." The letter states, "Kyle's interests have expanded from cryptocurrency to other tech fields such as artificial intelligence, life sciences, and robotics, and he has decided to invest time in exploring these emerging technologies."

According to a Coinbase survey, over 70% of institutional investors believe that Bitcoin is undervalued in the current price range of $85,000 to $95,000.