Analysis: Bitcoin market sentiment hits an all-time low, contrarian investors believe that $60,000 is the bottom for BTC

According to Cointelegraph, the Bitcoin market sentiment index has fallen to an all-time low, with some contrarian investors believing that $60,000 may have become the bottom of this cycle.

Data shows that the cryptocurrency fear and greed index dropped to a historical low of 7 over the weekend, indicating that the market is in a state of "extreme fear." Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, pointed out that this indicator, along with the relative strength index, shows that the market is deeply oversold, a similar situation occurred during the 2018 bear market and the pandemic crash in March 2020, which may create conditions for a rebound.

CoinGlass's liquidation heatmap shows that if the Bitcoin price rises by about $10,000, it could trigger the liquidation of over $5.45 billion in short positions, while a drop to $60,000 would only trigger $2.4 billion in liquidations. This imbalance may drive a short covering rally. However, structural risks in the market still exist.

CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin is still far below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with a price Z-score of -1.6, indicating that it remains in a phase dominated by selling pressure. The net buying volume in the derivatives market has turned negative, and the Binance buy-sell ratio has also fallen below 1, showing strong selling pressure in the futures market.

Analysts point out that stronger spot demand is needed to trigger a sustained rebound. From a longer-term perspective, historical data shows that Bitcoin bear market bottoms typically form below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which is currently around $57,000. If history repeats itself, the downside scenario could extend to $42,000.