When will the cryptocurrency market change?

According to analyst Alicharts, Bitcoin is at a critical turning point. Bitcoin is testing the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) resistance level, marking its third test in six months. The previous two tests ended in failure: in October last year, Bitcoin faced rejection, leading to a 30% drop from $116,000 to $80,000. In January, Bitcoin similarly faced rejection, resulting in a 39% drop from $97,000 to $59,800.Alicharts warns that a third rejection here would represent a significant structural failure. It could trigger a triple top effect, potentially pushing Bitcoin's price back to the annual low of $59,800. If BTC can ultimately break through this barrier and close above the 100-day SMA, then the upper limit will be breached. A breakout here would open a direct path to $80,000 - $84,000, confirming that the macro adjustment may have ended.

According to market news, Bitcoin has risen 8% in the past two weeks, currently reported around $74,000. Max Kahn, CEO of Digital Wealth Partners, pointed out that the next round of Bitcoin's rise depends on three key factors: first, the trend of energy-driven inflation data; second, expectations of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. If inflation is controlled and the market shifts to expectations of easing, it will directly benefit risk assets like Bitcoin; third, the continuous inflow of institutional funds. In April, Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $523 million, continuing the strong performance since March.

According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin rose over 5% on Tuesday, reaching a daily high of $76,120, the highest level since February 6, successfully reclaiming the key support area of $75,000—where the 100-day exponential moving average and simple moving average intersect. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin broke through the upper boundary of the ascending triangle at $73,000 on Monday.Analyst CryptoBlockto stated, "Bitcoin broke through $76,000, standing above the March high, sending a bullish signal of renewed strength." He pointed out that if the daily close stabilizes above the $75,000 moving average area, it will confirm the breakout of the pattern, with the next resistance level at the psychological barrier of $80,000, and the measured target of the ascending triangle pointing to $89,050, about 18% higher than the current price. The daily RSI has now risen to 63, having previously fallen to the oversold area of 15 on February 6.On-chain data shows that the average daily number of Bitcoin transactions has increased by 62% since 2026, reaching 765,130 on April 5, a new 17-month high, comparable to the level when Bitcoin first broke $100,000 during the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Analyst CW8900 stated, "The current daily transaction count for Bitcoin is higher than when BTC was priced at $120,000, indicating that the network is exhibiting bullish behavior."Glassnode noted in its latest market report that the total fee income from Bitcoin over the past week increased by 4%, rising to $153,700, indicating "increased on-chain demand," and stated, "This growth suggests a rise in network activity and may indicate that users' willingness to increase fee spending for priority processing of transactions is changing."

According to CoinDesk, the price of Bitcoin has broken a four-week high and has now risen to over $74,000.Analysis indicates that $75,000 is a key "volatility release point," and due to the negative gamma effect in the derivatives market, price fluctuations may be amplified. This range also coincides with Bitcoin's 100-day moving average, which became a major resistance level in January of this year.If the price breaks above $75,000, the upward trend may accelerate further; if it falls back, it could increase downward pressure. The range of $80,000 to $80,600 is a positive gamma zone, where market volatility is relatively low, and the trend may tend toward range-bound fluctuations. Additionally, the 200-day moving average is currently at $87,519, serving as a long-term price reference.

According to Cointelegraph, after the release of the U.S. CPI data, Bitcoin briefly rose to $73,000, attempting to refresh the new high for the phase. The data shows that overall inflation in the U.S. is slightly lower than market expectations, but the significant rise in energy prices has created a divergence signal.Specifically, the U.S. CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year, with the month-on-month data 0.1% lower than expected; among them, energy prices increased by 10.9%, and gasoline prices surged by 21.2% month-on-month, marking the largest single-month increase since 1967.The financial market's reaction was relatively restrained, with U.S. stocks opening basically flat, and Bitcoin did not experience significant fluctuations. Meanwhile, influenced by previous PCE data, the market has largely ruled out the possibility of a short-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.On the trading front, analysts believe that Bitcoin is operating within a converging range. If it attempts to hit key highs again in the short term, the market's reaction will become an important signal for subsequent trends, with around $74,000 seen as a key liquidity area.

According to CoinDesk, as market sentiment improves, the Bitcoin options market is showing a significant shift. The call options with a strike price of $80,000 on Deribit have become the most popular trades, with an open interest exceeding $1.6 billion, surpassing the previously dominant $60,000 put options (with an open interest of about $1.41 billion). Analysts believe that the recent temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran has led to a decline in oil prices, easing inflation expectations, which may enhance the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, thereby benefiting risk assets including Bitcoin.In addition, asset management firm 21Shares stated that with continued inflows into ETFs and increased institutional holdings, if the geopolitical situation eases and the regulatory environment improves, Bitcoin could potentially surge to $100,000 by the end of the second quarter. However, risks remain in the market; the current ceasefire situation is relatively fragile, and if the conflict in the Middle East escalates again, a rebound in oil prices could suppress market risk appetite, thereby limiting Bitcoin's upside potential.

According to analyst Alicharts, Bitcoin has dropped 52% since its peak in October 2025, with a 3-day SMA crossover signal appearing on February 27 (the death cross of both the 50-period and 200-period SMA), which has now lasted for 30 days. Historical patterns suggest that the final accumulation window of this cycle may occur within the next 3-6 days.Alicharts points out that historical records show that in every major cycle since 2014, the crossover of the 50 and 200 SMA marks an absolute bottom and a golden buying opportunity. Past cycles indicate that a final drop of 40-52% occurs 23-33 days after the crossover, completing the bear market washout. The potential washout target for this cycle is between $30,000 and $40,000, after which the next bull market will begin.

According to The Block, Bitcoin fell 23.8% in the first quarter of 2026, marking the worst first-quarter performance since 2018. In comparison, Bitcoin dropped 50% in the first quarter of 2018. Coupled with a 23% decline in the fourth quarter of 2025, Bitcoin has accumulated a decline of about 41.6% over the past six months.Analysts attribute this decline to multiple factors. Andri Fauzan Adziima, head of research at Bitrue, stated that the downward trend in the first quarter was mainly driven by outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs, along with persistently high inflation, a cautious stance from the Federal Reserve, and an overall risk-averse sentiment in the market. In the first quarter, there was a net outflow of $496.5 million from Bitcoin spot ETFs, with $1.8 billion flowing out in the first two months, while $1.32 billion inflow in March partially offset the previous outflows.Nevertheless, analysts believe that the long-term confidence in Bitcoin remains unshaken. Min Jung, a researcher at Presto Research, stated, "There is almost no evidence to suggest a structural change in long-term confidence in Bitcoin; institutional participation and adoption trends remain intact, indicating that this decline is more cyclical than fundamental." She pointed out that a trend reversal in the second quarter depends on greater certainty in the macro environment, especially regarding the situation in the Middle East.Nick Ruck, research director at LVRG, stated, "To reverse the trend in the second quarter, we need ETF funds to flow back in, clear progress on crypto-friendly regulations in the U.S., and a shift towards looser monetary conditions."