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BCH $568.46 +8.18%
LINK $8.94 +6.19%
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AAVE $127.31 +13.28%
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liquidity

CertiK: The prediction market is expected to achieve a fourfold increase in trading volume by 2025, reaching $63.5 billion, while the industry faces security and regulatory challenges

According to the "2026 Skynet Prediction Market Report" released by CertiK, the trading volume of prediction markets is expected to grow to $63.5 billion in 2025, achieving a fourfold increase, with Kalshi, Polymarket, and Opinion becoming the dominant platforms. However, this growth in scale also brings new risks, including oracle vulnerabilities, administrator key abuse, and Web2.5 architecture issues.The report notes that prediction markets have been deemed legal financial products in the U.S. through CFTC rulings, but are banned in several EU countries as unauthorized gambling. Additionally, regulatory differences among U.S. states may further complicate compliance. In December 2025, a security incident involving Polymarket's third-party certification provider exposed centralized failure points in the hybrid Web2/Web3 architecture.The research also estimates that during the peak of airdrops, manual trading volume on some platforms reached 60%, severely distorting liquidity metrics. CertiK predicts that in 2026, prediction markets will see enhanced technical privacy and accelerated institutional adoption, but platforms must simultaneously address issues such as liquidity maintenance, security infrastructure development, and the sustainability of revenue models to achieve long-term growth.

Wintermute: The AI sector is siphoning off market liquidity, and persistent selling pressure in the U.S. is dominating the market. Bitcoin is entering a high volatility price discovery phase

Wintermute stated that Bitcoin briefly fell to $60,000 last Monday, erasing all gains since Trump's election. Spot fund flows show significant structural pressure. The Coinbase premium has consistently been in a discount state throughout the market process, persisting since last December, indicating ongoing selling pressure from the U.S.Internal OTC fund flow data also confirms that U.S. counterparties were the main sellers throughout the week, and this trend has been further amplified by continuous ETF fund redemptions. Over the past few months, AI-related assets have been continuously absorbing available market funds, crowding out the allocation space for other asset classes. The phenomenon where crypto assets underperform when AI-related companies rise and experience amplified declines when they fall can almost entirely be explained by the rotation of funds towards the AI sector.For crypto assets to outperform again, AI trading needs to cool down first. Microsoft's weak earnings report has initiated this process, but it is still far from enough. Last week's market was like a "surrender-style" clearing, with volatility soaring and buying support emerging at $60,000. In an environment where spot trading remains relatively low, leverage has become the dominant factor in price fluctuations.If open interest cannot significantly rebound, it will be difficult for the market to form sustained follow-through on either the long or short side. A true structural recovery requires a return of spot demand, but there is currently almost no evidence of this. We are likely entering a phase of high volatility and choppy price discovery. It will be hard to see sustained upward potential until the Coinbase premium turns positive, ETF fund flows reverse, and basis rates stabilize. Meanwhile, retail attention is being diverted to other asset classes, and market direction seems increasingly dominated by institutional fund flows from ETFs and derivatives channels.

Spark co-founder Sam MacPherson: The next growth phase of DeFi will rely on integrated protocols that can consolidate multi-chain liquidity, possess institutional-level risk control, and have sustainable token economics

At the "Build and Scale in 2026" themed forum recently held by ChainCatcher in Hong Kong, Spark co-founder Sam MacPherson delivered a keynote speech on "The Growth Engine of DeFi," systematically explaining how Spark builds an integrated solution to address the fragmentation and inefficiency of on-chain capital markets by integrating savings, lending, and institutional-level capital allocation.Sam MacPherson pointed out that the current on-chain capital market still faces challenges of severe fragmentation and low capital utilization efficiency. Spark builds its growth engine through three core products: first, the all-chain savings account Spark Savings, which has managed over $2.75 billion in deposits, providing users with a safe and stable income entry; second, the lending protocol SparkLend, which focuses on blue-chip assets and captures value by reducing external protocol commissions and protocol fees; third, institutional lending in collaboration with the Anchorage custodian, seeking risk-adjusted returns between DeFi, CeFi, and traditional finance.He believes that the next phase of DeFi's growth will rely on integrated protocols that can seamlessly integrate multi-chain liquidity, provide institutional-level risk control, and possess sustainable token economic models. Spark is promoting the evolution of DeFi towards a more efficient and robust direction through its product matrix and ecosystem development.

Under pressure of liquidity, exchanges are shifting, and Gate's full asset layout effects are beginning to show

According to the latest in-depth report by ChainCatcher, as liquidity in the cryptocurrency market continues to be under pressure and the trading activity of native assets declines, an increasing number of exchanges are turning their growth focus towards the on-chainization and derivatives trading of traditional assets such as metals and U.S. stocks. Among them, Gate is gradually demonstrating its platform advantages in this round of "all-asset competition" due to its early establishment of a complete product system and leading trading activity.Data from Coinglass shows that during the recent fluctuations in metal prices, the 24-hour trading volume of Gate's XAUT contracts remained stable in the range of $300 million to $500 million, with trading activity ranking among the top in the world for similar assets. In addition, Gate has maintained a high level of trading stickiness during the downturn in crypto spot markets through methods such as TradFi launch celebrations and trading incentives, with its strategy leaning more towards a "long-term retention" approach to all-asset expansion.ChainCatcher believes that as the industry gradually shifts from the "crypto narrative internal cycle" to a new stage of "global asset on-chain," the core of exchange competition is no longer just the speed of new listings, but rather the ability to find a balance between compliance boundaries, liquidity support, and risk management. From the current progress, Gate is occupying a more advantageous position in this structural shift and is expected to continue amplifying its first-mover advantage in the next stage of the integration of TradFi and the crypto market.
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