altcoins

According to statistics from crypto VC Delphi Digital, 97% of altcoins have been in a downtrend since January 2025, with an average decline of 78%. Among the 121 altcoins tracked by the agency, only three tokens, HYPE, SYRUP, and BCH, have maintained an upward trend.

According to Coinglass data, after another dip in the cryptocurrency market today, the funding rates indicate that the current market remains broadly bearish, with bearish sentiment towards BTC and ETH even stronger than that towards altcoins. Currently, the funding rates for BTC and ETH contracts on almost all platforms are negative, while the rates for altcoins, although still bearish, are mostly positive. The specific funding rates are shown in the attached image.Funding rates are the fees set by cryptocurrency trading platforms to maintain the balance between contract prices and the prices of the underlying assets, typically applicable to perpetual contracts. It serves as a mechanism for the exchange of funds between long and short traders; the trading platform does not charge this fee, which is used to adjust the cost or profit of traders holding contracts to keep the contract prices close to the prices of the underlying assets. When the funding rate is 0.01%, it indicates the benchmark rate. When the funding rate is greater than 0.01%, it represents a generally bullish market. When the funding rate is less than 0.005%, it indicates a generally bearish market.

According to OnchainLens monitoring, a newly created wallet address deposited 2 million USDC into HyperLiquid and simultaneously opened multiple short positions:SOL, ETH: 20x leverage short;HYPE, SUI: 10x leverage short;TAO: 5x leverage short.

According to Coinglass data, Bitcoin's attempt to reach $90,000 has been thwarted, currently reported at $89,627. The funding rates on mainstream CEX and DEX platforms indicate a slight easing of the bearish sentiment towards BTC and SOL, with some trading platforms returning to neutral rates. However, a large-scale bearish sentiment towards altcoins still exists, with specific funding rates for mainstream coins shown in the attached image.Note: Funding rates are the rates set by cryptocurrency trading platforms to maintain the balance between contract prices and the prices of the underlying assets, typically applicable to perpetual contracts. It is a mechanism for the exchange of funds between long and short traders, and trading platforms do not charge this fee; it is used to adjust the cost or profit of traders holding contracts to keep the contract price close to the underlying asset price. When the funding rate is 0.01%, it indicates the benchmark rate. When the funding rate is greater than 0.01%, it represents a generally bullish market. When the funding rate is less than 0.005%, it indicates a generally bearish market.

Bitcoin's failure to return above $90,000 has weakened investor confidence and intensified bearish sentiment. Georgii Verbitskii, founder of the non-custodial Web3 platform TYMIO, stated, "In the short term, Bitcoin's weakness stems from a lack of interest from large institutions at current price levels." He pointed out that geopolitical uncertainty has led investors to adopt defensive strategies.Ryan Li, co-founder of Surf, added, "Even strong-performing altcoins are struggling, such as Avalanche, which has dropped about 66% since last September, despite having collaborated with institutions like JPMorgan and WisdomTree. This shows that the market's tolerance for altcoins is very low." Verbitskii noted that gold has become the focus of the market, attracting major safe-haven funds and marginalizing Bitcoin. He believes this is not a "systemic change" caused by panic, but rather a revaluation of Bitcoin as a non-preferred asset during this period. However, once large funds re-enter the market, sentiment could change. Until then, he expects market sentiment to remain uncertain.

Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on his personal channel, stating, "Most altcoin long positions have exited------although it hasn't reached the excess returns I expected, I'll take the profits I can get for now. The core Bitcoin long positions are still held, but I have significantly converted back to cash, waiting for the next opportunity to position."

Grayscale officially released a report listing its "Alternative Asset List for Potential Inclusion in Grayscale Investment Products" for Q1 2026, which includes:Smart Contract Platforms: Aptos (APT), Arbitrum (ARB), Binance Coin (BNB), Celo (CELO), Mantle (MNT), MegaETH, Monad (MON), Polkadot (DOT), Toncoin (TON), Tron (TRX);Finance: Ethena (ENA), Euler (EUL), Hyperliquid (HYPE), Jupiter (JUP), Kamino Finance (KMNO), Lombard (BARD), Maple Finance (SYRUP), Morpho (MORPHO), Pendle (PENDLE), Plume Network (PLUME), Sky (SKY);Consumer and Culture: ARIA Protocol (ARIAIP), Bonk (BONK), Playtron;AI: Flock (FLOCK), Grass (GRASS), Kaito (KAITO), Nous Research, Poseidon, Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL), Worldcoin (WLD);Public Utilities and Services: DoubleZero (2Z), Geodnet (GEOD), Jito (JTO), Layer Zero (ZRO), Wormhole (W).Grayscale stated that this list includes digital assets that are not currently part of Grayscale investment products but have been identified by the team as potential targets for future products.

The asset management company Grayscale has updated a list of assets under consideration for future investment products, as well as a list of existing assets. The "Assets Under Consideration" section lists digital assets that are not currently included in Grayscale's investment products, but which their team has identified as potential candidates for inclusion in future products.The list adds 36 new altcoins, with candidate companies covering five major areas: smart contracts, finance, consumer and culture, artificial intelligence, and utilities and services. Among these, the number of assets in the smart contract platform and finance sectors is the largest.However, inclusion in this list does not guarantee that the assets will be included in the investment scope; it merely indicates that Grayscale is actively evaluating these assets.

According to Hyperinsight monitoring, a previous "8 million dollars long on 11 altcoins" whale address once increased its position to a maximum of 17 altcoin long positions, with a maximum floating profit exceeding 3.3 million dollars. Currently, it has closed long positions in MON (profit of 400,000 dollars), PUMP (profit of 370,000 dollars), AIXBT (profit of 80,000 dollars), STABLE (profit of 140,000 dollars), FARTCOIN (loss of 3,800 dollars), and TRUMP (loss of 7,000 dollars).There are still 11 altcoin long positions remaining, with the total floating profit in the account narrowing to 1.04 million dollars.

Fundstrat's Head of Digital Asset Strategy, Sean Farrell, stated in an interview that Bitcoin is still on track to reach "$1 million" in the long term, with strong structural tailwinds for quality crypto assets. The year 2026 will be a "trader's market," and the first half may see a "risk clearing event," leading to increased volatility, which could see Bitcoin drop to $60,000 (a deep value zone, a "buy the dip" opportunity). In the second half, improved liquidity, policy stimulus, and AI-driven growth will present excellent opportunities.Regarding Ethereum, Sean Farrell believes that ETH is viewed by traditional asset managers as a "small-cap tech stock." Benefiting from the narrative of real-world asset (RWA) tokenization (with a year-on-year growth of 145% in Q3 2025, bringing higher quality assets into DeFi and enhancing value capture). Therefore, the year-end target price is around $4,500.For SOL, Sean Farrell thinks it will compete with ETH for RWA market share but lacks support from traditional asset managers. Its advantages include high throughput, upgrades (such as Alpenglow and Firedancer), and potential inflation reduction. Price expectations: a drop to $50-$75 in Q1/Q2, followed by a rebound to $220-$260.After the risk clearing, altcoins will be an "excellent cocktail"; after ETH outperforms BTC, altcoins with reliable token economics and solid traction will perform significantly, especially those related to RWA.Previously reported, Tom Lee stated in an interview that "Bitcoin may reach a new all-time high by the end of January 2026," while Fundstrat analyst Sean Farrell mentioned in a report on the 20th that "Bitcoin may drop to $60,000 to $65,000 in the first half of 2026, and Ethereum may fall to $1,800 to $2,000."

According to Hyperinsight monitoring, the "30-time long-suffering whale" has experienced a maximum drawdown of 1.29% in the past week. Today, it continues to increase its long positions in altcoins, with the current holdings as follows:5x leverage long position of 2.6 million USD in FET, average entry price of 0.2685 USD, floating profit of 178,000 USD;10x leverage long position of 1.24 million USD in SEI, average entry price of 0.1255 USD, floating loss of 13,000 USD;10x leverage long position of 1.93 million USD in FARTCOIN, average entry price of 0.3949 USD, floating loss of 41,000 USD.

According to AI Yi's monitoring, the address 0xEa6...061EE has deposited 8 million USDC as collateral to Hyperliquid in the past 5 hours, and then opened: IP /XPL /STBL /MON /PUMP /GRIFFAIN /VVV /AIXBT /HEMI /MAVIA /STABLE long positions, with positions ranging from 600,000 to 2 million dollars, totaling a value of 13.76 million dollars, currently with an unrealized loss of 12,000 dollars.

Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on his personal channel that he has gone long on Bitcoin and some small-cap altcoins. Now almost everyone is on holiday, even the big sharks are watching from the sidelines and not biting much, with the price of Bitcoin not effectively breaking below $84,000. The overall market volume has completely collapsed, and sellers are quite exhausted.As long as a few big buyers enter the market, the thin order book can be easily torn apart. "There is quite a good upside potential for going long below 90k, with clear stop-loss levels. I would rather test the waters here now than hesitate and be at a loss when it gets to 95k or even 100k. Additionally, January is historically a month with a lot of volatility, and I bet that as December ends, this volatility will return in some form."

Cryptocurrency data analyst CyrilXBT posted on platform X that BTC.D (BTC market dominance) has strongly rebounded from support levels, which is the reason for the poor performance of the altcoin market. As long as BTC market dominance remains high, altcoins will continue to bleed.Currently, every time BTC pulls back, funds continue to flow into BTC rather than altcoins. The altcoin season will only begin when BTC is no longer the safest trading asset, and we are not close to that point yet.

Crypto trader @DaanCrypto posted on the X platform that the market this month has been very dull, with no major events occurring and no significant fluctuations. Altcoins have dropped significantly, while Bitcoin and Ethereum have remained relatively stable.Daan stated that the first quarter of 2026 will be a key period for everyone to closely watch Bitcoin's movements, as it will have the opportunity to prove its strength.Clearly, altcoins have experienced a bear market lasting one to two years, depending on the coin, with most altcoins peaking in early 2024.

Wintermute posted on the X platform, stating that as the holidays approach, the market structure continues to narrow, and Bitcoin's dominance is rising. Due to oversupply and intensive token unlock schedules, altcoins continue to perform poorly. Internal flow data shows that there is buying pressure on mainstream coins, with institutional funds being a consistent source of buying since the summer, while retail investors are rotating from altcoins back to mainstream coins.Although spot buyers provide a stable foundation for the market, price discovery still occurs through derivatives, leading to a coexistence of net buying of mainstream coins and intraday sharp declines triggered by leveraged liquidations. Additionally, traditional financial institutions are steadily entering the crypto space, which is expected to provide support for mid-term prices. In the short term, the market will continue to fluctuate under thin liquidity, with BTC and ETH continuing to act as the main risk absorbers.

Recently, several institutions/analysts have discussed the four-year cycle pattern of Bitcoin. Well-known crypto KOL AlΞx Wacy posted on the X platform, stating that the four-year cycle has not been broken; what has been broken is people's expectations. Altcoin prices have plummeted, with no frenzy, no altcoin season, only boredom and pain.He pointed out that stocks have reached all-time highs, artificial intelligence prices have soared, and gold has performed excellently. The cycle does not always end; sometimes it extends, and most people have already exited. When the market reverses, those people will no longer participate.