fomc

According to Jinshi reports, Brad Conger, the Chief Investment Officer of Hirtle & Co., stated that a small-scale dispute broke out within the FOMC today, with dissenters leaning towards a tightening policy stance, which sets the direction for the "struggle" for the incoming chair. The bond market has been pricing in this scenario for several weeks, and Conger believes that, based on strong growth in private consumption and business investment, the hawks will have the upper hand in this contest.

According to Jinshi reports, analyst Audrey stated that given the recent strong economic performance and the ongoing inflationary trend caused by rising energy prices, the "clearly hawkish" shift made by some FOMC members is reasonable. She pointed out that from the perspective of the dollar, this indicates that the bearish expectations driven by factors such as Federal Reserve policy and yields are incorrect, while also confirming that the bullish price trend so far is justified.

According to Jin Shi's report, the Federal Reserve FOMC statement indicated that when considering further adjustments to the federal funds rate's magnitude and timing, the committee will carefully assess newly released data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve FOMC statement passed the decision to cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points with a vote of 8 to 4. Milan voted against it, supporting the rate cut, while Harker, Kashkari, and Logan voted against including a bias towards easing monetary policy in the statement.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve FOMC statement indicates that the developments in the Middle East have increased uncertainty in the economic outlook.

According to The Block, Bitcoin maintained a volatile consolidation above $77,000 on Wednesday, with the market adopting a cautious stance ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. This FOMC meeting is seen as a critical juncture, with the market generally expecting interest rates to remain unchanged, but the real focus is whether Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will signal a "higher-for-longer" hawkish stance. Additionally, this meeting may also be his last as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, with the market pricing in uncertainties regarding policy and potential power transition.Overall, Bitcoin remains in a "low liquidity + high event risk" structure, and is likely to oscillate within the $72,000 to $80,000 range in the short term, awaiting further clarity on the Federal Reserve's policy path.

Bitcoin fell below $77,000, with the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recording a net outflow of $263.2 million, ending a nine-day streak of net inflows. This coincided with the eve of this week's Federal Reserve FOMC meeting, adding a touch of caution to the already resilient April rebound.Bitcoin declined today, but it has still risen about 15% over the past month, reaching a high of $79,000 in April. The interruption of ETF fund momentum is significant because it occurs just before a week of major macroeconomic events. The market is currently digesting the Federal Reserve's decisions, new inflation concerns, GDP data, a series of earnings reports from major tech companies, and another round of interest rate decisions from central banks in Europe and Asia.Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, stated that the crypto market entered this week with inspiring momentum, but there are too many cross factors to determine a clean risk appetite trend. In his view, investors are showing signs of "war fatigue" regarding the situation in the Middle East, while central banks are forced to find a balance between supply-driven inflation and weakening confidence along with mixed data.Glassnode expressed a similar view in its latest weekly pulse report. Analysts noted that Bitcoin still exhibits a "mix of bullish momentum, cautious sentiment, and consolidation," with strong buying pressure offset by weaker speculative participation and lower trading activity.QCP Capital stated that Bitcoin had a significant rebound in April, maintaining an overall constructive pattern. However, the firm believes that $82,000 remains a key level, with the nearby CME gap constituting the next real test.Andy Baehr, managing director at GSR Asset Management, mentioned that prices are "gradually rising," and $80,000 remains a key psychological level.

Ethereum has dropped to around $2,100, with a daily decline of 7%, mainly due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and higher inflation expectations. In the past 24 hours, the total amount of long liquidations in the crypto market reached $492.8 million, with over $144 million in ETH long positions being forcibly liquidated.More critically, CoinGlass data shows that if ETH falls below $2,000, it will trigger over $2.5 billion in leveraged long liquidations across all trading platforms, meaning that if the bearish momentum continues, ETH will face a greater risk of a waterfall decline. Additionally, the U.S. spot Ethereum ETF recorded a net outflow of over $55.5 million on Wednesday, ending a streak of six consecutive days of net inflows. In the past eight FOMC meetings, ETH has declined after seven of them.The typical post-FOMC pullback ranges from 16% to 23%, with deeper deleveraging phases seeing declines of 33% to 43%. From a technical perspective, $2,100 is currently a key support level, closely coinciding with the upper boundary of the ascending triangle and the 50-day moving average. If the bulls can hold this position, the next target is $2,575 (100-day moving average), and above that is the triangle measurement target of $2,700. If $2,100 is lost, ETH will retest the triangle support line around $2,000; if it further breaks below the 20-day moving average, it faces the risk of dropping to $1,800.

According to Jin Shi reports, Goldman Sachs' Head of Multi-Asset Fixed Income Investment, Lindsay Rosner, stated that despite the upward revision of inflation forecasts, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) still maintains a dovish stance. Goldman Sachs still believes there is room for two "normalization" rate cuts in 2026, with the specific timing depending on the duration of the conflict.

According to Jinshi reports, George Goncalves, the head of macro strategy at Mitsubishi UFJ in the United States, stated that the Federal Reserve FOMC's statement is "neutral." The fine-tuning of the statement aims to avoid sending any signals while conveying that they are vigilant about any growth shocks and the inflation spillover effects caused by the Middle East conflict.

According to Jinshi reports, the chart in the Federal Reserve's economic outlook shows that most FOMC participants believe that PCE inflation and core PCE inflation face high uncertainty, with risks tilted to the upside.

According to Jin Shi reports, the chart in the Federal Reserve's economic outlook shows that most FOMC participants believe that the uncertainty facing actual GDP is high, with a downward risk bias.

According to Jinshi reports, the chart in the Federal Reserve's economic outlook shows that most FOMC participants believe there is high uncertainty regarding the unemployment rate, with risks tilted to the upside.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve FOMC statement pointed out that employment growth has remained sluggish in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained basically unchanged.

According to Jin Shi reports, the Federal Reserve FOMC released economic forecasts, expecting the median core PCE inflation expectations at the end of 2026, 2027, and 2028 to be 2.7%, 2.2%, and 2%, respectively. In contrast, the expectations in December were 2.5%, 2.1%, and 2%.

According to Jinshi reports, the economic projections released by the Federal Reserve FOMC show that the median unemployment rate expectations for the end of 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 4.4%, 4.3%, and 4.2%, respectively. In comparison, the December projections were 4.4%, 4.2%, and 4.2%.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve FOMC statement indicates that the current level of inflation is still slightly high.